The 2012 football season is upon us. Soak up every last ounce of it. With player safety headlines swirling and
lawsuits brewing, the league’s pending doom might only be a few years
away. That’s what I heard the Mayans
predicted anyway. But as of right now,
the NFL is still king so here’s my take on each team’s chances heading into the
season.
AFC North
As usual it’s going to be a slug fest in the AFC North this
year. The division placed three teams
in the playoffs last year, but all three face significant obstacles in
returning to the postseason in 2012.
Baltimore will try to defend their crown with a roster that
is somewhat in flux. Free agency stole
their safety depth, one of their pro-bowl-caliber guards (Ben Grubbs), and one
of the least heralded but soon to be sorely missed members of their linebacking
corps, Jarret Johnson. Their best pass
rusher is likely out for the year, they are still shaky at OT, Matt Birk isn’t
getting any younger at center, and…well, I’ll throw in my annual “Ray Lewis and
Ed Reed will be running out of gas soon” comment. These guys just might keep playing until the league starts blood
testing (oops, did I say that out loud.
Seriously though, if Ray Lewis is clean, I feel like his body has to be
added as one of the seven natural wonders of the world right behind the Grand
Canyon. Sorry Mount Everest, you’re
out. Lewis is in. The guy has been in
crash test dummy like numbers of violent collisions, he is 37 years old, and
he’s coming back for more? Sorry Ray,
it’s hard not to be cynical these days when it comes to PED’s and the world of
sports. I hope you’re for real. I can’t stand your team, but I hope you’re
for real). I don’t think Baltimore will
fall to the bottom of the scrap heap or anything, but between the personnel
headaches and the first place schedule (their non-common games are with New
England and Houston. Pittsburgh gets
Tennessee and N.Y. Jets. Cincy gets
Jacksonville and Miami) I can’t see them coming out on top in this battle royal.
Pittsburgh made a concerted effort in the draft to improve
their offensive line. Injury and
incompetence have taken their first two draft picks out of the running for
their starting lineup and they're all set to enter the season with the same rag
tag crew as last year. If they’re not
careful, Ben Roethlisburger is going to start having pre concussion
syndrome. They’ve made some effort to
reload their aging defense, but I’m not sure the young guns are ready yet. The linebacking corps is going to have to
carry the team and I’m just not sure they can win the division doing that.
Cincinnati had the best offseason in the division, but it has been a revolving door into the trainer’s room throughout the preseason. Injuries have already claimed their left
guard for the year and their center for at least half the season while many
others have been saddled with various sprains and strains. It seemed like only about half their roster
was active for each preseason game.
With week 1 looming, a lot of the guys who’ve been sitting out are
coming back, but it remains to be seen who was held out for precautionary
reasons and who has a nagging ailment that is going to linger all year
long. I still like the offensive
weapons, even though they’re mostly unproven.
I have a feeling the offense will start slow, but grow stronger and
stronger throughout the year. The
schedule is softest early on. Five of
the first six games are against Cleveland twice, Washington, Miami, and
Jacksonville. The key to the year will
be for the O to work through all the growing pains and still manage at worst a
4-2 starting record. After that, there
aren’t too many breaks in the schedule (as always that statement is subject to
change depending on how the year plays out.
It’s unclear how good San Diego and Oakland will be and who knows who
will be starting at QB for Denver and Philly by the second half of the
season). The Bengals defense appears to
be the more seasoned unit, but they’ll have their ups and downs as well. Rey Maualuga and Taylor Mays patrolling the
middle will be a roller coaster ride all year long. I like that their experimenting with Nate Clements and Leon Hall
at safety on passing downs. If Jason
Allen, Adam Jones, and Terrence Newman can stay healthy enough to man the
corner positions, safety might not be as big of a concern as I think. Regardless of what goes on in the back seven,
the defensive line is the hinge that can swing this unit from mediocre to
masterful. Carlos Dunlap being able to
come back at 100% off of the knee sprain is key, but if Geno Atkins keeps
wreaking havoc in the middle, it could be a moot point. When all is said and done, I think the
Bengals will eek out another winning season, but not by much.
I still like the Bengals’ chances to re-take the division. If you figure on Baltimore, Pittsburgh, and Cincinnati all winning 4 games in the division and going 4-4 against the AFC West and NFC East, I think Baltimore will have trouble cracking eight wins as they face the toughest schedule. That would put Cincinnati and Pittsburgh at ten wins if they can sweep inferior teams in the two remaining games, and that is probably right where all three end up: in the eight, nine, ten win range.
Cleveland on the other hand has hit the reset button again
this year. Their roster is not devoid of talent. It is just cursed. They’ve already lost their nose tackle to
injury and their star corner to suspension (for the start of the season), and
their number 3 overall draft pick running back already has two knee surgeries
under his belt this calendar year. Yet,
all of this would be irrelevant if they hadn’t flubbed the chance to trade for
Robert Griffin III. Sorry Cleveland,
I’m not sure there’s light at the end of the tunnel.
Cincinnati: 9-7
Pittsburgh: 9-7
Baltimore: 8-8
Cleveland: 4-12
AFC South:
The AFC South is a legit candidate for the weakest division
in football, but it’s a little better than people are giving credit.
Starting at the bottom, Indianapolis will have a hard time
climbing out of the cellar but don’t be fooled, they will give some people fits
this year. The defense will be lost in
translation as they try to convert from over a decade of Tampa 2 constructed to
feed off their offense to a stingy Baltimore type scheme that hits people in
the mouth. They won’t be able to stop
anybody, but Andrew Luck will win a few shootouts for them. I’d say the win total doubles from two to
four.
Tennessee is another middle of the pack team where it’s not
clear whether it will be two steps forward or two steps back. With the Jake Locker regime officially
heading into full swing, it’s hard to believe they won’t drop down a
notch. Their offense will be up and
down and I couldn’t begin to tell you the name of their best defender. Sign them up for seven wins.
Jacksonville has been pegged in most circles as a doormat in
the running for the number one overall draft pick. I’m going to go out on a limb and predict a leap forward for the
Jags. Their defense is stronger than
people think and their offense can’t be any worse than it was last year. For what it’s worth, the guy all NFL pundits
used as a speed bag last year for his abysmal attempts at playing quarterback,
Blaine Gabbert, has looked surprisingly competent so far this year (as in he’s
actually throwing under pressure without ducking as he hurls the ball). It won’t be a leap into contention, but I’ll
bump them up to 8-8.
Lost in all the chatter about Houston dominating the South
are the free agency hits they took on the offensive line. If the rushing attack stumbles a little, I
don’t know if there’s enough firepower on the outside to make up the
difference. The Texans almost rode a
hot defense to the Super Bowl last year despite the QB injuries. This year, it’s the defense’s turn to get
banged up. Even so, they should be good
for 10 wins. They just won’t contend
for the AFC crown like many are predicting.
Houston: 10-6
Jacksonville: 8-8
Tennessee: 7-9
Indianapolis: 4-12
AFC East:
They should rename this division “New England’s AFC
East”. The offensive line is a question
mark. Past that, they are loaded with
offensive weapons and the defense looks like it will be better. It’s hard to envision any scenario not
involving injury where the Patriots don’t come out on top here. The real question is whether they can make
it back to the Super Bowl in what might be the last year of Tom Brady’s
prime. I haven’t figured out who will
beat them, but I don’t think they make it through the playoffs with the
offensive line as it stands right now.
Buffalo made a lot of splashy moves in the offseason and on
paper their defense is a force to be reckoned with. Regardless, while forecasting the Bills, I always end up back at
Ryan Fitzpatrick. He could easily swing the team
either way. Their nine wins will
reflect about where he fits into the league’s quarterback hierarchy.
The New York Jets looked like a mess all preseason. Will the defense be good enough to make up
for an offense that will be streaky at best?
They’ll start off better than people are expecting, but they’ll have a
hard time holding it together all year long.
The story will be different this year.
The results will be similar.
Miami was one of the best bad teams of last year, but a lot has happened since then. They’re starting a rookie quarterback under a rookie head coach, and they cleaned house personnel-wise trading away the gruff personalities out of the locker room. Unfortunately, the players they shipped away were their best playmakers. The defense is still decent, but I expect it to be a long year.
New England: 12-4
Buffalo: 9-7
New York: 7-9
Miami: 3-12
AFC West
With three teams at 8-8 and one team at 7-9, the AFC West
was ruled by mediocrity in 2011. Can
anyone step up and establish at least one Super Bowl Contender from the
division? Actually, all four teams have
a shot at restoring some credibility out west, but good luck figuring out which
one.
Denver’s chances lie almost entirely on the shoulders of
perhaps this year’s top storyline: Peyton Manning. A lot of people are buying in and have Denver as a strong
playoff team. It’s unbelievable. The season is starting and you still read
stuff about him still working on getting all his arm strength back. Let me say that again, THE SEASON IS
STARTING! He hasn’t played in over a
year. I can’t see how he can possibly
play at an elite level if he’s not 100%.
If he’s not elite, the Broncos won’t win the west let alone contend for
a Super Bowl Berth. “Peyton will be
good. Peyton will be good.” Snap out of
the trance people. I just hope the guy
doesn’t get seriously hurt. I don’t
care what the Dr.’s say. How could they
possibly know what a blind side collision with a 300 lb man will do to
Manning’s body? Best case scenario, he
grits out an 8-8 year, manages to avoid re-injuring himself and comes back in
2013 a little closer physically to where he needs to be.
I feel like Oakland and San Diego are two of the bigger
swing teams in the league. I could talk
myself into 10-6 or 2-14. In Oakland, the roster on a whole has taken a hit as
they try to weather the bad contracts Al Davis handed out over the last few
years. I thought Carson Palmer had a
shot at turning back the clock this year, but the preseason has been the same
old story. His receivers can’t stay
healthy and he throws too many interceptions.
All of the picks weren’t his fault, but it’s hard to look past them at
this point. The defense seems like they
won’t dominate, but they won’t single handedly lose games either. Overall, I’d say this is a five or six win
team that jumps to eight or nine in the unlikely event that Darren McFadden’s
feet don’t crumble at some point this year.
He’s that good.
San Diego was an enigmatic squad that underachieved last
year. Phillip Rivers and company should
bounce back this year, but can they push through the early injury bug they’ve
been hit with and can their O-line step up their game? I say yes and yes, but it’s a wild guess
honestly.
Kansas City has been the most trendy pick for a bounce back
season and I’m going to take the bait and buy in. Adding Eric Winston at RT should be the boost the K.C. rushing
attack needs ,and conversely the passing game should feed off that. The defense has been stout under Romeo Crennel,
and there’s no reason to think it won’t stay that way. The Chiefs will start slow, but eventually
club their way to a division title.
They might even win a playoff game.
Kansas City: 11-5
San Diego: 10-6
Oakland: 7-9
Denver: 6-10
NFC North:
Sorry Lions fans, I’ve got you taking a step back this
year. Mathew Stafford and Calvin
Johnson have to be 100% all year long for them to duplicate last season’s
performance and I don’t see that happening.
The running back situation doesn’t look improved and the secondary could
actually be worse than last year. That
means they’ll be slinging it trying to score 40 to win by 2 all year long. It’s a slippery slope to try that strategy too many
years in a row when Stafford is a jammed shoulder away from derailing their
season.
In Minnesota, Ponder will be better this year, but the
offense is still developing. The
defensive line is aging but still strong.
Unfortunately, the back 7 group playing behind them is a work in
progress. They’ll improve the win total
this year, but will it be enough to keep Leslie Frazier off the hot seat?
The Bears are everybody’s dark horse this year. I like them to make the playoffs, but will
the defense be good enough to do any damage?
Under Mike Tice, they’ve somehow managed to win with a bad offensive
line. I think they’ll keep it going
this year, but they won’t be able hang with the Packers.
There’s not much to say about Green Bay. Their offense is the best in the league and
their defense can’t be any worse than it was last year. They’re the favorites heading into the year
and I’ll have a hard time staying away from them as my Super Bowl pick.
NFC South
The South is a division that could shake out a lot of
different directions. I see Carolina
and Tampa improving, New Orleans stumbling, and Atlanta winning by default.
I expect Cam Newton to get better and the Carolina defense to bounce back from the barrage of injuries they suffered in 2011. The defensive line still has to improve and the offense will suffer a major setback if they don’t find some “Steve Smith, our number 1 WR, is about to decline soon” insurance, but all in all Carolina is still on course to contention (almost seemingly in spite of the bizarre contracts GM Marty Hurney keeps handing out).
In Tampa Bay, new head coach, Greg Schiano, and some free
agency reinforcements should boost the Buccaneer’s win total. They’ve dumped a lot of resources into
rebuilding their defense, but they still have a ways to go. Injuries have already started to sap their
depth. Things derailed last year, but
they seem to have found the right man to get them back on track.
The New Orleans situation is intriguing. Originally, I thought they’d be a dumpster
fire, but I’ve softened on that quite a bit. I think it’s looking more like
they’ll lose some close games and end up somewhere around seven wins. General consensus on the other hand has
started to warm back up to the Saints and many analysts are still projecting
them to challenge for the NFC crown.
They are dreaming. I just don’t
see how, minus suspended coach Sean Peyton, they can be any better than 75% of
what they were last year. Yes Drew
Brees is great. I’m sure they’ll look
fine early on. But wait until about
half way through the season when teams are starting to make defensive
adjustments to what the Saints are doing and injuries start to mount and
they’re trying to hold the roster together with silly string and popcycle
sticks. THAT’s when they’ll miss
Peyton. If they end up with nine or
ten wins, everything has gone right.
There’s no way everything goes right.
Atlanta is once again showing flashes of being an offensive
juggernaut. They’ll be good, but I
don’t think they’re the well-oiled machine that you see in Green Bay and New
England. I don’t think anyone else is
capable of winning this division this year, but Atlanta’s offensive line and
defense still aren’t good enough for the post season.
Atlanta: 11-6
Tampa Bay: 8-8
Carolina: 8-8
New Orleans: 7-9
NFC East:
I’ll spare you all of the clichés about the strength of the
NFC East, but suffice it to say each time these teams face each other it will
be one of the more interesting watches of the weekend.
The Redskins fans are smelling roses with Robert Griffin III
getting ready to kick off his career.
The secondary needs rebuilt and the O-line is still a work in
progress. They aren’t contenders yet
but with that defensive front seven and their franchise QB in the fold, it
shouldn’t be long.
All three remaining teams look like ten to twelve win
squads, but more than likely one will fall on hard times and come up
short. The Giants face a Super Bowl
hangover and still have an injury-riddled secondary. Their strong defensive line somehow managed to mask the
deficiency at the end of last year, but Dallas already proved in the opener
that it’s a major problem.
Dallas’ main liability looks to be their offensive
line. The defense looks much better and
the offensive weapons are adequate when healthy. If Tony Romo can keep dancing out of trouble they could be as
good as anybody.
Philadelphia will struggle to fill the void of injured all-pro
left tackle, Jason Peters, but otherwise they have a very similar outlook as
Dallas except with a better all-around defense and better offensive
weapons. If all Andy Reid’s horses and
all Andy Reid’s men can put Michael Vick back together again, watch out. Unfortunately, the Peters injury forces Vick
to rely too much on scrambling. Even
if he stays healthy, he is going to wear down.
Philly wins the AFC East battle, but loses the NFC war.
Philadelphia: 11-5
Dallas: 10-6
New York: 9-7
Washington 5-11
NFC West
An annual contender for worst division in the league, the
NFC west is starting to see a resurgence.
Although St. Louis and Arizona are still shaky, Jim Harbaugh and Pete
Carroll have their teams rolling to where both might make the playoffs.
Behind a shaky quarterback and a bad offensive line, Arizona
might have the worst offense in the league.
It’s a tough title to hold when you have one of the greatest WR’s in the
history of the league in his prime, but the Cardinals are somehow managing to
do it. The defense isn’t half bad, but
unless they play like the ’00 Ravens I’m not sure it matters. I have them in the Matt Barkley derby.
St. Louis might finally have some luck this year, but even
if they do, the roster is still pretty heavily in transition. They could double their win total. Unfortunately, that only takes them up to
four.
San Francisco came a couple of punt return fumbles away from
going to the Super Bowl last year. They
bring back an unheard of 11 of 11 starters on defense and have retooled their
offense. I believe in Harbaugh enough
to think their won’t be much of a drop-off, but the cookie crumbled almost
perfectly for them (until the end) last year.
It’s hard to believe it will happen again.
Seattle has suddenly turned into everyone’s sweetheart
team. Watch out for Russell Wilson
fever. Strangely, I am on the bad
wagon. Often roasted for his outside-the-box
roster moves, GM John Schneider must be flashing everyone the double-barreled
finger as his team appears on the brink of a great season.
Seattle: 11-5
San Francisco: 10-6
St. Louis: 4-12
Arizona: 2-14
Playoff Picks:
Alright, we made it! Is everyone still awake? If you’re keeping tally, I’ve got the
divisional winners as Cincinnati, Houston, New England, Kansas City, Green Bay,
Atlanta, Philadelphia, and Seattle. For
wild cards, I’ll go with San Diego, Buffalo, San Francisco, and Dallas. As for the Super Bowl, I can’t get away from
Green Bay in the NFC . The AFC is a
different story. Consensus has it boiled
down to a select group in contention that includes New England, Houston, and
Baltimore along with Pittsburgh and Denver as long shots. I think it will be none of the above. With everything so watered down, I think
it’s going to be a surprise team. I see
New England rolling through the regular season and then getting stumped by a
stingy defense in the playoffs. By
process of elimination, the candidates are Cincinnati (this blog might be a
little too Tinted orange if I went there), Kansas City (not good enough
quarterback), Buffalo (hmm), or San Diego (BINGO). It doesn’t make total sense right now. Their O-line looks
sub-par. Their RB and one of their top
WR’s are both injured. No one can
imagine Norv Turner leading his team to the Super Bowl. As the Giants have proven on multiple
occasions, it’s not what your team looks like at the start of the season that
determines your playoff chances. The Rivers
to Gates combo experiences a renaissance.
The defense rebounds with a fury and everything else falls into
place.
SPOILER ALERT: The Chargers can’t keep up with the packers
in Super Bowl XLVII
Green Bay 34
San Diego 20
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