The 2012 combine is in the books. Players will still jockey for position at their pro days and team needs will shuffle throughout free agency but here’s a breakdown of how the top ten might play out. With the Bengals picking 17, I’ll even run through 11-17 for good measure.
1. Indianapolis
The Manning saga is still in full swing, but whatever happens, everyone seems to be on the same page that Andrew Luck is still Indianapolis bound. It’s the right move for Indy. There’s too much risk to stick with Manning, and Luck is the best QB prospect since…well, he’s the best I’ve seen. That only covers the last ten years or so where I was really in tune with things, but the point is, he’s too good to pass up. People have thrown out Elway comparisons. Elway’s days as a draft prospect predate my vantage point, but I don’t think Luck’s arm strength is quite in the same league as Elway’s. Luck’s arm is strong enough though, and I don’t think he really has any weaknesses anywhere else. Usually analysts will talk about prospects having a high ceiling or a low floor, but I don’t think I’ve ever heard of anyone having both. Luck is that guy. If he’s great you could have an all-timer. If not, you probably still have a serviceable QB.
Ironically, despite all that, it feels like people have cooled on Luck. Have scouts uncovered some subtle flaw in his game? Did GMs interviewing him notice a crazed facial tick that calls into question his mental stability? Nope and nope. The hype surrounding him just went too far. Sports media has foamed over on this kid to the point that the best draft prospect in a quarter century has become overrated. Luck is fine. Now that everyone realizes he isn’t going to come into the league and immediately start pooping out Lombardi trophies, the buzz has died down a little.
Luck going number one is a big story, but as most everyone has been latched onto for the last few months, it is secondary to an even bigger story: the game of chicken between Colts owner Jim Irsay and Peyton Manning. The general media focus has been locked in on when the conclusion to the standoff will occur and where Manning’s eventual landing spot will be. In fact, some people are incredulous that nothing has happened yet. Why can’t these guys sit down and figure this out? Why is this dragging out? Because it’s in Irsay’s best interest to drag it out. First of all, what if Andrew Luck falls off a roller coaster tomorrow and breaks every bone in his body? Peyton Manning is a pretty decent back-up plan. Second of all, Manning is an asset. Irsay is right to not give up his asset until he’s absolutely sure he can’t get anything back in return for him. That doesn’t happen until March 8.
That said, the real question we’re glossing over is whether Indianapolis can leverage the situation into any compensation. The Colts can’t trade Manning without paying him a $28 million bonus unless Manning agrees to restructure his contract. Some have rightfully made the point there’s no way Manning will restructure to allow the Colts to pry valuable picks/players away from his future team. Therefore, the whole thing becomes a matter of whether Indy can pay the bonus and make the salary cap structure work. If they can swing it, they should do it even if they have to suffer in the short term. I don’t care if they have to dig the copper pipes out of their brand new stadium to raise money. Otherwise, they’ll be four years into Luck’s career before they get around to bringing in high end receiving targets that will take three more years to develop. If Daniel Snyder calls them up and offers two first rounders and $10 million - done. Pay Manning his money and sort everything else out later.
Here’s another angle. Irsay doesn’t want to oust Manning. What if he doesn’t? Luck is the more valuable player right now anyway. What if the Colts put all their money on “18” and spin the wheel. I wouldn’t do it. It would be insane. But let’s say Cleveland picks up the phone and offers their entire 2012 draft and their 2013 first rounder. If you’re counting, that’s three first round picks including the number four pick this year. All of a sudden Indianapolis has Manning throwing to Justin Blackmon for the next three years while they dump the rest of their drafts (yes, they would have so many picks I say drafts as in plural) into offensive and defensive line talent and a developmental QB. When a guy like Luck falls into your lap you’d be crazy to pass him up. Then again, have you read any of Irsay’s tweets? The guy is a little off. If Manning steps on a field on March 7th for a workout and starts slinging the ball around the field like it’s 1999…watch out. Irsay could send shockwaves through the league.
Okay, I burned a page and a half up on what happens to be one of the most straight forward picks possible. If I’m not careful, Manning will be house hunting in Phoenix before I get this thing posted. So here’s part one, and I fill you in on the rest in part 2…and maybe part 3. Who knows?
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