2013 Mock Draft Magic

It’s mock time. It will change over the next month, but here's a snap shot of names being discussed in the top 20. That of course will lead us right up to that magic 21 slot presently owned by your Cincinnati Bengals.

 

1. Kansas City

The Chiefs have traded themselves out of any scenario where they might reach for Geno Smith or Matt Barkley with the Alex Smith deal. (Quick tangent: Chiefs fans were mortified their team put their eggs in A. Smith's solid but uninspiring and somewhat tattered basket. Following a year where the free agency and draft crops netted teams QB’s the likes of Peyton Manning, Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III, Russell Wilson, and Ryan Tannehill, it's hard to blame them for feeling mopey. Analysts, for the most part, look at it as a good move to take the initiative to acquire the best player available at the team's most dire need position. At 28 years old with eight years of NFL experience, A. Smith has potential in both the short term and the long term. Personally, I like the fit with Andy Reid, I just think they needed to find a way to keep the second round pick they used to pull off the deal. This draft is all about depth. They were either in line for a really good player or a very valuable trading chip. Instead, they paid premium value when they were essentially bidding against themselves.)  That basically leaves the OT’s duking it out for the number one overall slot.  Scouts are split, but right now we’ll still give the nod to Luke Joeckel.

The Pick: Luke Joeckel, OT Texas A&M

2. Jacksonville

The Jaguars also face the quandary of picking at the top of a draft with no obvious future all-pro prospects.  Their roster has quite a few holes, but there isn’t an obvious need/value fit here. The new front office needs to rate the best player available and go for it. That narrows this pick down to the top corner, the pass rushing DT whose stock is soaring and the OT pushing Joeckel as the top overall pick. Dee Millner’s sub 4.4 40 yard dash at the combine give him just enough boost to get the nod here. 

The Pick: Dee Millner, CB Alabama

3. Oakland

Oakland’s post-Al Davis front office seems to be making all the right moves. Unfortunately, the hole they’re digging themselves out of is pretty deep. Much like Jacksonville, this pick has to be a matter of taking the best player available regardless of need. They should field calls to trade down for more picks if they can.  They need a high volume of players playing for economical salaries. If they must stay put, pass rushing DT’s are hard to find. 

The Pick: Sharrif Floyd, DT Florida

4. Philadelphia

Let the Chip Kelly era begin! The offensive line has to get better, but for now they’ll hope players returning from injury will cure those woes. Switching to more of a hybrid defense, this will most likely be a debate between adding versatile OLB talent and rebuilding their D-line. Kelly will likely be tempted to gamble on his former player, OLB/DE Dion Jordan, but in the end Star Lotulelei is the safer bet (…sort of. Assuming the heart condition detected at the combine turns out to be no big deal that is). Capable of playing 3-4 DE or 4-3 DT, Lotulelei brings scheme flexibility and fits nicely next to last year’s number one pick, Fletcher Cox.

The Pick: Star Lotulelei, DT Utah

5. Detroit

The four teams in front of Detroit mulled over whether to take OT Eric Fisher. The Lions finally pull the trigger. A DE would be nice, but protecting Matthew Stafford should be first priority. 

The Pick: Eric Fisher, OT Central Michgan

6. Cleveland

Cheer up Cleveland fans. I have a feeling your luck is starting to change. New ownership has assembled a pretty impressive front office, and it should only be a matter of time before they mold their roster into one of the league’s best. I have Dion Jordan slotted here. Their recent free-agency acquisition of OLB Paul Kruger calls into question whether they’ll go OLB in this slot, but Jordan is a unique talent capable of dropping into coverage and rushing the passer. I’m sticking with it. 

The Pick: Dion Jordan, OLB/DE Oregon

7. Arizona

Geno Smith generated buzz at his pro day, but the recent word out of Arizona is they aren’t interested in a QB in round one. No team is dumb enough to actually tip their hand to that extent at this stage of the game so believe what you want to believe. For now, we’ll assume it’s true. Past QB, OT is a no-brainer in this slot. Lane Johnson has done nothing but move up draft boards this offseason to the point where he now comes up in discussions right alongside Joeckel and Fisher.

The Pick: Lane Johnson, OT Oklahoma

8. Buffalo

The Bills are once again starting from scratch as they’ve purged their coaching staff and quarterback from last season. With former Syracuse head coach Doug Marrone now holding the clipboard, don’t be surprised if he reaches for one of his former players, QB Ryan Nassib. However, in this scenario, most peoples’ number one QB, Geno Smith is still on the board. Riding the momentum from his pro day, Smith is the man for now.

The Pick: Geno Smith, QB West Virginia

9. New York Jets

Talk about a train wreck. The Jets need to stockpile picks and reshape their roster. Yet, they decided to retain head coach Rex Ryan for next season. With the head coach needing to win now to keep his job and the team needing to launch into all out rebuilding mode, the Jets 2013 season feels like a recipe for disaster. Who knows, maybe it’s a shrewd move to use Ryan as a lame duck head coach in the destruction phase of the rebuilding process to accelerate the next coach’s rehabilitation efforts. More likely, owner Woody Johnson just isn’t ready to give up yet and the Jets opt for OLB in this slot. In that case, Barkevious Mingo feels like he is tailor made to be a Jet. Mingo boasts outstanding potential, but I think he is destined to disappoint at the pro level. As many analysts have detailed, his athleticism is off the charts, but his production on the field doesn’t match his talent. Some downplay it saying it’s more related to how coaches used him at LSU. I can’t get past it. College football is a world of haves and have nots, and LSU’s defense certainly can be placed in the haves category. Mingo was playing with at least three other guys that will go in the first two rounds of the draft and probably another two or three more that will get drafted high in future years.  To not produce with the deck stacked in your favor is a red flag for me. Time will tell.  

The Pick: Barkevious Mingo, OLB/DE LSU

10. Tennessee

The Titans picked up the top guard in free agency, but I don’t think they stop there. Defensive end is a possibility, but I think they continue to invest in the offensive line. They decided a couple of years ago to build their team around their big play running back, Chris Johnson. Now they need to invest in an O-line that can make holes for him. 

The Pick: Jonathan Cooper, G North Carolina

11. San Diego

San Diego is another offensive line that needs rebuilt. Lane Johnson would be a shoe-in but he’s gone already in this scenario. Chance Warmack is pretty much the only player in this draft class anyone considers as an elite prospect for his position. Cooper jumps ahead of him because he’s more athletic and fits better in Tennessee’s scheme, but no one doubts Warmack has the talent to be great. Two guards in the top ten seems outlandish, but scouts say these two guys are the real deal. 

The Pick: Chance Warmack, G Alabama

12. Miami

Miami has grabbed headlines this free agency period, and if this mock plays out they will continue to draw buzz with this pick. Ezekiel Ansah is a 270 pound athletic freak. He has only played football for a couple of years so he comes with growing pains, but teams won’t be able to resist the upside.

The Pick: Ezekiel Ansah, DE BYU

13. Tampa Bay

Tampa has invested a pile of picks in their D-line recently without much to show for it. The way the value is shaking out in this slot, it looks like they'll keep trying. Bjoern Werner was slotted top five early in the process. He's dropped down behind the athletic, high ceiling types lately but you have to figure the Buccaneers would love to nab him this low.

The Pick: Bjoern Werner, DE Florida State

14. Carolina

Right about 13, the WR's start to come into play. DT is the bigger need though and the gap between the day one and day two DT's is much wider than the gap between the WR's. Sheldon Richardson has some top ten buzz and is capable of filling the elusive role of playmaker in the middle of the defensive line.

The Pick: Sheldon Richardson, DT Missouri

15. New Orleans

The Saints could stand to restock their offensive weaponry, but the more pressing need is to acquire fresh blood at linebacker for new defensive coordinator Rob Ryan's 3-4 defense. There will be WR's they can snag later. Alec Ogletree is a sideline to sideline LB that can cover like a safety. Not a bad piece to build a defense around. Ogletree comes off the board and hearts sink in Cincinnati. (If they’re comfortable with the off-the-field baggage, of the players that have some chance of lasting to 21, he should be at the top of Cincy’s board. The way the league is heading, covering the tight end is crucial to competing with the elite teams, and that is what the Bengals’ defense does worst. With Rey “Molasses” Maualuga signed back up to patrol the middle of the field the run defense is in good shape but the pass defense needs help. Take Ogletree to play MLB, move Maualuga back to the strong side and leave Burfict on the weak side. Unfortunately, I don’t think we have to worry about whether or not they’d pull the trigger on that scenario.)

The Pick: Alec Ogletree, LB Georgia

16. St. Louis

It has been an “invest to help Sam Bradford offseason” so far for the Rams. I say it continues. I'm not huge on Keenan Allen but many are comparing him to Reggie Wayne. Don’t rule out Tavon Austin to slide into the Danny Amendola vacancy.

The Pick: Keenan Allen, WR California

17. Pittsburgh

Pittsburgh sits quietly as James Harrison's replacement falls right into their lap. Jarvis Jones was the most productive of the OLB prospects last year. If he clears medically, Pittsburgh won't pass him up.

The Pick: Jarvis Jones, OLB Geogia

18. Dallas

When was the last time Dallas didn't do something flashy in the first round (ok, they took an OT in the top ten in 2011, but still…)? Jerry Jones is itching to do something exciting. You can just feel it. He's doing that little fake smile where he grits his teeth as I type these words. Watch out, the Tavon Austin pick is coming. And once again, Bengals fans' hearts sink. Some still think Austin is a late first rounder because of his size. I don't see it. There's enough buzz about his strong character and toughness, somebody in that 15 to 19 range will bite. The key for Austin will be to land on a team that has a number one receiver. Otherwise he's going to get overused and he won't hold up. Cincinnati is a great fit because they have the WR1, they have the bigger WR2's they can line up outside, they have bigger WR’s they can throw in the slot to run the more physical routes, and they have a small jitterbug receiver that can replicate Austin’s roll when he gets dinged up. More importantly, unlike most other teams in the top 20, they can afford to make a luxury pick (assuming they sign Andre Smith or some other RT in free agency). Their roster is in good shape and they have an extra second rounder to secure players at other need positions (positions like LB and Safety that happen to be deep in day 2 of the draft).
The Pick: Tavon Austin, WR West Virginia

19. New York Giants

It’s pretty easy to project Giants first round picks. Who is the top rated defensive end available? Their thirst for pass rushers might actually be more justified this year. Osi Umeniora is on his way out the door and Justin Tuck appears past his prime. Damontre Moore was slotted in the top ten early on, but a sluggish combine and maturity concerns have chilled his stock. He makes a good investment at 19 though. 

The Pick: Damontre Moore, DE Texas A&M

20. Chicago

The Bears could go a number of directions here including linebacker or safety. I think they pass in favor of offensive weaponry. TE Tyler Eifert brings solid value in this slot. The Bears signed Martellus Bennett in free agency, but he's a little too enigmatic to rely on as more than a stop gap solution. In the meantime new head coach Mark Trestman, known as an offensive innovator, should make good use of both TE's. Eifert is a high-end receiving prospect that should evolve into Jay Cutler's number two target quickly. 
The Pick: Tyler Eifert, TE Notre Dame

21. Cincinnati Bengals

The Ravens are being dismantled in free agency and the Steelers are regrouping. All the Bengals have to do is sign Andre Smith and not screw up this draft and the division is theirs for the taking. Fortunately, the depth of this draft class simplifies things quite a bit. The Bengals could go LB, S, WR, RB, in just about any order (hopefully leaving RB in the back half of that sequence) and address their biggest needs with four decent players. Trading down might also be an option with teams in those top ten slots potentially wanting to move back into the first round to grab the quarterback they like. Dropping ten or fifteen slots isn’t too painful in this draft and they might be able to snag an extra third or 2014 first round pick. If they stay put, I like Ogletree and Austin best out of the players that might be available for reasons referenced above. Unfortunately, it looks like both will be gone by 21. In this scenario, the consolation prize is safety Kenny Vaccaro. Some think it’s a long shot Cincy will take a safety. Mike Zimmer himself scoffed at the notion, “I like our safeties.”  Really? Is that why you picked up Chris Crocker off the street in the middle of the season and started him the rest of the year? Others think there’s no positional value at safety. That doesn’t make any sense either. They are picking at 21. I think just about any position is in play. Ask Pittsburgh and Baltimore if they think picking a safety in the back half of the first round is okay. I’m not saying Vaccaro is going to be Troy Pallamalu or Ed Reed, but let’s not get too crazy with trying to find the golden pick. If there’s a guy there that can contribute, take him. It’s hard to believe that the top safety on most peoples’ boards couldn’t contribute on Cincinnati's roster. 

The Pick: Kenny Vaccaro, S Texas

Other names to watch out for:

D.J. Fluker, OT Alabama:  If the Bengals don’t sign a free agent right tackle, they might replace Smith with another Alabama tackle. He has the size, but is he athletic enough? Some scouts think the team that drafts Fluker will eventually realize he’s a better fit at guard. 

DE’s: 

Bringing back Robert Geathers and Wallace Gillberry was nice, but is it a luxury they can afford? I’m not sure they can pay Michael Johnson long term and plugging in Geathers past next year doesn’t exactly make you feel warm and fuzzy. With Carlos Dunlap heading into free agency next year, the time fill the hole at DE is now. DE’s might be readily available at 21, but I’m not sure there’s a roster spot anymore. Regardless, if they do find a way to stash a rookie somewhere this year here are the names to watch out for:

Damontre Moore, Texas A&M:  I have him going 19 right now, but it’s not unreasonable to think he might fall to 21. 

Corey Lemonier, Auburn: Lemonier’s case is the opposite of the Mingo effect referenced above. He didn’t dominate, but as the lone good player on a bad defense his talents might have been considerably masked. 

Cornellius Carradine, Florida State: Carradine could have graded out as one of the top DE’s in this class if he hadn’t torn his ACL late last season. He might not be ready to go at the start of the season, but he would be a good investment for 2014.   

That’s all for now. We’re closing in on one month until draft day.  Keep an eye out for my annual full first round mock.