Happy Draft Day: Final Mock 2015

The big day is here!  As Jurassic Park Samuel L. Jackson would say, "Hold on to your butts".   It's going to be a wild one.  I wouldn't go as far as to call this a weak draft, but you'd be hard pressed to find a class with a wider variety of opinions on each player.  Here's my feeble attempt at a final mock draft.

1. Tampa Bay

No change here. Can famous Jameis keep his life on track where so many other young players have derailed in Tampa?

The Pick: Jameis Winston, QB Florida State

2. Tennessee

The world seems to have come to their senses on Mariota as there is no longer any talk of him falling outside of the top 5.  Strangely, a lot of people are gravitating towards Mariota in the #2 overall slot, but hardly anyone thinks the Titans will pick him.  I don't know if I've ever seen a consensus mock trade before.  Normally, analysts shy away from projecting draft-day trades like they are some kind of ebola-laced popsicle.  Tennessee is pushing hard to generate a bidding war, but I'm not sure it will ever develop.  No one quite offers the price they are looking for, and they don't want to shoe-horn Mariota into their system.  Leonard Williams will make a nice centerpiece for an already solid front seven.

The Pick: Leonard Williams, DE USC.

3. Jacksonville 

The Jaguars will not take Mariota at pick 3, but somebody will.  The QB position is too important for someone not to take the gamble to trade up and Jacksonville won't ask for near the ransom that Tennessee is demanding.  Cleveland, New York, Washington, St. Louis; someone will get antsy.  I think it will be Chicago.

The Pick: Marcus Mariota, QB Oregon

4. Oakland

Williams is the latest name getting penciled in to Oakland, but he's by far the third best player in this class.  I don't think he gets outside of the top three.  And with the top three prospects gone, there isn't much trade-down potential.  You need a number one receiver Oakland. It is a strong class, but don't try to get cute with the second round.  Picking Cooper/White will help your team the most. 

The Pick: Amari Cooper, WR Alabama

5. Washington

A lot of people see this as a trade-down slot.  It might be,  but I think Washington will take what they think is the best player available.  Trade or no trade, pick 5 will be Kevin White.   Pierre Garcon can't stay healthy, and White would makes for a nice compliment to DeSean Jackson.

The Pick: Kevin White, WR West Virginia

6. New York Jets

Vic Beasley's athleticism is too much for New York to pass up.  Rex Ryan will be jealous.

The Pick: Vic Beasley, OLB Clemson

7.   Chicago

Jacksonville moves down and picks up the player they wanted to begin with.  

The Pick: Dante Fowler, DE Florida

8. Atlanta

Bud Dupree is a boom or bust prospect, but 270 lb. defenders that look fluid dropping into coverage are pretty rare.  Atlanta needs D-line talent.  Why not swing for the fences?

The Pick: Bud Dupree, DE Kentucky

9. New York Giants

There have been a lot of mock drafts projecting O-line to the Giants, but DT feels like the bigger need. 

The Pick: Danny Shelton, DT Washington

10. St. Louis

A versatile lineman that can play guard or tackle is the perfect fit for the Rams who need interior help and a backup plan at both OT spots.

The Pick: Brandon Scherff, OT/G Iowa

11. Minnesota

Todd Gurley is getting top ten buzz right now.  That's a little too rich for my blood, but once we get in the 10 to 20 range all bets are off.  I'm predicting Miami or Sand Diego trades into the 11 slot. 

The Pick: Todd Gurley, RB Georgia

12. Cleveland

Cleveland stays put and goes to work on their defensive line.  Malcom Brown is stout enough to play the run, but has valuable pass rush skills as well.  

The Pick: Malcom Brown, DT Florida State

13. New Orleans

New Orleans, could go a variety of directions here.  WR makes sense or NT if Shelton falls.   L'ael Collins would give them OT/G flexibility, but Andrus Peat is the best OT prospect in the class. 

The Pick: Andrus Peat, OT Stanford

14. Miami

DeVante Parker would round out the Dolphins' WR overhaul nicely.  Or is this Minnesota picking?  Either way, Parker would be a great fit for every team picking in the 10 to 20 range.  He won't fall far.  Someone will move up to snag him.

The Pick: DeVante Parker, WR Louisville

15. San Francisco

The 49ers will try to regain their physicality in the trenches.  Collins is a fierce run blocker with decent starting OT upside. 

The Pick: L'ael Collins, OT LSU

16. Houston

The Texans could use a burner across from DeAndre Hopkins.  With a little luck he'll develop into a star.

The Pick: Breshad Perriman, WR Central Florida

17. San Diego

The Vikings drop back and pick up the kind of corner coach Mike Zimmer craves.

The Pick: Trae Waynes, CB Michigan St.

18. Kansas City

O-line feels like K.C.'s biggest need.  I'm torn between Cameron Erving at center and D.J. Humphries at OT.  When in doubt opt for the higher value position.

The Pick: D.J. Humphries, OT Florida

19. Cleveland  

Imagine the cries we'll hear when Cleveland passes on WR with both of their first round picks.  Coach Mike Pettine gets another big body up front to play with.

The Pick: Arik Armstead, DE Oregon

20. Philadelphia  

The Eagles will take a strong look at Landon Collins, but instead opt for USC's Swiss army knife receiver. 

The Pick: Nelson Agholor, WR USC

21. Cincinnati

The buzz in Cincinnati is starting to center around OT's.  Everyone rails on and on that the Bengals need to improve their pass rush. Pundits' heads will really spin when two of the widely heralded pass rushers fall into their laps and they take a backup OT.    Will Cincy pull that trigger?  I think it depends if Humphries falls.  In this scenario he does not.  They can wait a round to see if one of the available alterntives slides a little.  Owamabe Odighizuwa and Cameron Erving are still my favorites, but it will be interesting if Shane Ray and Randy Gregory are both still available.  Both have character concerns that Marvin Lewis has to be comforatable with.  I think they'll do their due diligence and decide they can afford the risk at 21 for one of the two guys.  The next question becomes, can either player play linebacker?   Gregory is the better candidate based on speed and acceleration, but I'm not sure where he plays at 230 lbs.  Ray looks like the more well rounded player in game footage and has already shown the ability to carry 245 lbs. on his frame.  He has a lingering foot injury and most likely won't be available until the start of the season.  That's not ideal, but he can work behind Lamur starting out and fill in with spot pass rushing duties. He doesn't necessarily have to learn to play linebacker right away.  It's funny, all these years later and they are making the David Pollack pick again.  Maybe this time it will stick.

The Pick: Shane Ray, OLB Missouri    

22. Pittsburgh

The steelers long-in-the-tooth DB's finally retired.  Now it's time to restock.

The Pick: Jalen Collins, CB LSU

23. Detroit  

Half of the beastly defensive line they built over the last five years defected in free agency.  Ziggy Ansah remains, but he'll need help sooner rather than later.

The Pick: Preston Smith, DE Mississippi St.

24. Arizona  

The Cardinals could use reinforcements in their defensive front seven, but Erving makes for a nice upgrade at center to solidify their interior O-line.

The Pick: Cameron Erving, C Florida St. 

25. Carolina  

Marcus Peters is only available because he got himself kicked of his college squad because of his attitude.  Right around pick 18 teams will start to talk themselves into his talent.

The Pick: Marcus Peters, CB Washington

26. Baltimore  

In some kind of twisted self-torture, I always tend to mock the players I like most to the teams I like least. 

The Pick: Owamagbe Odighizuwa, DE UCLA

.  

27. Dallas

The Cowboys still need defensive talent.  Eddie Goldman can step right in and contribute. 

The Pick: Eddie Goldman, DT Florida State

28. Denver

The Broncos need players that can contribute right away, preferably on the offensive and defensive lines.  Laken Tomlinson fits the bill.

The Pick: Laken Tomlinson, G Duke

29. Indianapolis

Landon Collins (last Collins in the round, I promise) slides a little bit due to his lack of versatility.  The Colts, looking for a strong safety will gladly give him a new home.

The Pick: Landon Collins, S Alabama

30. Green Bay

The Packers aren't really a draft-for-need kind of team, but this makes too much sense. 

The Pick: Eric Kendricks, ILB UCLA

31. New Orleans

Dorial Green-Beckham is a big risk, but at 31 and as New Orleans' second first round pick the through-the-roof potential is worth the gamble.

The Pick:Dorial Green-Beckham

32.  New England   

Some are predicting a random Bill Belichick guard or DT pick here.  I think it will be his classic trade-down maneuver.  Someone moves back into the first round for Melvin Gordon.
The Pick: Melvin Gordon, RB Wisconsin

Hit Me!

Wow, has it really been a year since I posted? Sorry everyone.  Or whoever reads this.  Anyway, let's hop to it.  The draft is less than two weeks away.  It's time for a mock 21 to lay out landscape ahead of the Bengals and the potential candidates for their first round pick.

1.       Tampa Bay

Even the league's 2014 off-the-field PR blood bath hasn't stopped Winston's rise to the top of this year's draft class.  The debate didn't really even sizzle that much after Mariota's decent showing at the combine.  Scouts gush over Winston’s command of Florida St.’s pro-style offense and his ability to read, react and anticipate defenses. Tampa crosses their fingers and gambles on Winston's character.  
The Pick: Jameis Winston, QB Florida State

        2.     Tennessee
It only took one pick and now things are getting interesting.  A lot of mocks still have Mariota falling in the 6 to 12 range.  There are rumors of somebody trading up to grab him, but analysts are balking at who that might be and why that team wouldn't just sit and wait for Mariota to fall to them.  I'm in the trade up camp.  Even if Tennessee decides to pass on QB, I think Mariota gets taken in the top three no matter what.  The number one rule in building a roster (with really no close second) centers around having a plan at quarterback.  Say what you want about Mariota's viability as a day one starter, but he is the second best available plan at quarterback right now.  What's left in free agency?  What's available by trade? What's available in the draft?  Winston is the number one plan.  Mariota is the number two plan.  If you want someone better than that you will have to wait until next year’s draft, and most GM's can't afford to wait. 
The Pick: Marcus Mariota, QB Oregon

3.     Jacksonville

Jacksonville sits in a pretty good spot.  If Williams is the guy at two, the third pick might turn into a valuable trade piece.  If Mariota goes two, coach Gus Bradley and the Jaguars will smile and take the best defensive player in the class. He is a high ceiling, high floor prospect with the athleticism to play end and the size to rush from the inside on passing downs. 

The Pick: Leonard Williams, DE USC

4.     Oakland

The whole world has more or less zeroed in on WR for this pick and I can't disagree.  If Carr truly is a legitimate starter, now is the time to add an elite receiver.  Cooper vs. White is an interesting debate.  Especially, considering the parallels to the 2011 WR class.  Cooper looks like poor man's A.J. Green and White looks like poor man's Julio Jones.  Cooper is smaller than Green, but has comparable speed and fluidity as he runs down the field.

The Pick: Amari Cooper, WR Alabama

5.       Washington

Washington finally gave up on Brian Orakpo this offseason.  Might as well draft his edge rushing replacement.

The Pick: Dante Fowler, DE Florida

6.       New York Jets

A lot of people are slotting Mariota to the Jets.  If they want him I think they have to move up.  Instead they stick with their defense only in the first round policy and draft the edge rusher Rex Ryan never found. 
The Pick: Shane Ray, DE Missouri

7.       Chicago

Not many people are projecting Armstead this high, although several people have him ranked as a top 10 player in the class.  Something is going to give.  I think he’s too raw to take here, but Chicago's new defensive coordinator, Vic Fangio, will covet a player of Arik Armstead's size (6'7", 290 lbs.) for his system.
The Pick: Arik Armstead, DE Oregon

8.       Atlanta

The run on edge rushers continues.  Beasley wins out here.  Watch some game footage of him coming off the line of scrimmage.  It can be breathtaking.  And he doesn’t get pushed around nearly as much as his light weight would make you think.
The Pick: Vic Beasley, OLB Clemson

9.       New York Giants

The Giants jump at the opportunity to beef up their interior d-line.
The Pick: Danny Shelton, DT Washington

10.   St. Louis

The Rams on the other hand jump at the opportunity to beef up their interior O-line.
The Pick: Brandon Scherff, G Iowa

11.   Minnesota

Will White fall this far?  Most think it would be a steal if he does.   The WR depth of the class pushes him down a bit. 
The Pick: Kevin White, WR West Virginia

12.   Cleveland

Gregory started the process mocked much higher, but has started to slide.  Most say it is because of the recent news about his failed drug test.  I think it has more to do with his film.  He gets stymied too often.  It seems like his playmaking ability is more dependent on his opponents’ shortcomings than his own talent.  I'm not sure where to slot him, but I'll leave him here for now.
The Pick: Randy Gregory, OLB Nebraska

13.   New Orleans

Peat ends up the top OT off the board (if you count Scherff as a guard).  He’s the best true left tackle prospect in the class. His thighs look like they could hold up a small building.

The Pick: Andrus Peat, OT Stanford

14.   Miami

Waynes hasn't really been challenged as the top CB in the class.   The Dolphins need a little more coverage support to compliment the big bucks they spent to beef up the front seven. 
The Pick: Trae Waynes, CB Michigan State

15.   San Francisco

San Fran's step back last year had more to do with the O-line than anyone is giving credit. 
The Pick: L'ael Collins, OT LSU

16.   Houston

Teams in the 11 to 15 range will toy with taking Parker, but with lots of viable WR's available it will be 16-20 before anyone pulls the trigger.
The Pick: DeVante Parker, WR Louisville

17.   San Diego

It is almost a consensus at this point that a RB will be taken in the first round for the first time in three years.  Despite his torn ACL last year, Gurley still gets the nod. 
The Pick: Todd Gurley, RB Georgia

18.   Kansas City

I have a feeling Humphries will climb a bit more before all is said and done.  The Chiefs need more O-line help.
The pick: D.J. Humphries, OT Florida

19.   Cleveland

Cleveland’s interior defensive line left a lot to be desired last year. Brown has size, but can penetrate too.
The Pick: Malcom Brown, DT Texas

20.   Philadelphia

Philly whiffed on OLB last year.  Chip Kelly has the guts to try again, even despite the current media scrutiny surrounding his personnel decisions.  Dupree is one of the most athletic players in this class at 270 lbs. with room to grow on his frame.
The Pick: Bud Dupree, OLB Kentucky

21. Cincinnati:

The Bengals front office has once again positioned their roster with options in the first round.  As a matter of fact, when I ask myself about their top need, I have to pause.    The obvious answer: pass rush.  But even that leaves them with positional flexibility.  OLB, DE, DT.  They could add talent with a nose for the quarterback anywhere in the front seven they can find it.

Past that, the needs aren't glaring.  They have average or better talent at just about every position except maybe center.  Consequently, they can focus their resources on stocking their bench with athletic youth. Maybe that means simply upgrading their backups and improving depth.  Maybe that means drafting players that can push the starters that are closer to average than above average.  What positions should be on their short list?  Let's walk through the team needs position by position in order of need starting with the greatest.

Quarterback: Just kidding.  Well kind of.  I have always been one to stick up for Dalton, at least in the sense that his potential is better than most people give him credit.  He's improved every year except 2014 and even then I tend to give him a pass considering his top receiving target for important chunks of the season was Mohamed Sanu. Even so, heading into year five with the Red Ryder assassin at the helm of the offense it is getting harder and harder to keep the pro-Dalton drum beat.   Improved quarterback play is definitely a team need, but the draft isn't the place to look for help on that front.  Not anymore anyway.  Full disclosure, this entire paragraph is just an opportunity to lament last year's first round selection.  I don't have a problem with Darqueze Dennard.  They now have Leon Hall’s replacement.  It was a valuable roster move, and it was nice to finally accurately predict the Bengals' pick for once in my life.  But they could have Drafted Teddy Bridgewater! It was right there in front of them at pick 24.  That was it.  That was their last chance to move on from Dalton with a viable starter before A.J. Green gets old or moves on.  Now, all we can do is sit and wait for Dalton to finally turn the corner.  Who knows, maybe Bridgewater won't continue on his current path of promise, but right now the way things look I get sick to my stomach every time I hear him mentioned.  It's kind of like the feeling I get when I think about the "what if" scenario if the Bengals had drafted Russel Wilson instead of Dalton.   Alright, I’ll stop torturing myself.  Everything is going to be fine Bengals fans.  Dalton is going to be great.  Just you wait and see.  

Pass Rush:

This is everyone’s favorite bullet point when talking about Cincinnati’s offseason.  They’ve drawn criticism for not addressing the pass rush in free agency, and critics will keep chirping after the draft.  It turns out, it’s not that simple.  Everybody is trying to improve their pass rush.  Panicking about it is just a path to doing something stupid and gumming up the roster for years to come.  They actually did more than I thought they were going to be able to do in bringing back Michael Johnson in free agency.  Johnson isn’t exactly Reggie White, but he gives them more stability on that side of the line than they had.  Specifically, Johnson will massively upgrade the run defense (I still have nightmares of Wallace Gilberry feverishly crashing on the play-action fake while Cam Newton strolls around the edge for seventeen straight 10 yard gains).  Better run defense means more obvious passing situations for opposing offenses.  If you know the opponent will be passing, it is easier to defend.  As usual, the real keys to improving today’s problems hinge on roster moves made in years past.   

The true factors in improving the 2015 Cincinnati pass rush:

1. Will Geno Atkins look like Geno Atkins?  
2. Can Margus Hunt contribute? 
3. Can Will Clarke contribute?       

On the draft side, the pass rush could be improved by dynamic players anywhere in the front  seven.  However, unless the perfect opportunity presents itself DE and DT at least can get shuffled lower on the need list.  Linebacker on the other hand…  

Linebacker:

The linebacker play in general has room for improvement.  Lamur was decent, but he's better against the pass than the run.  Maualuga is better against the run than the pass.  This is where I would normally complain about Maualuga getting another contract this offseason, but it's hard to deny that the defense improved significantly last year when he was in the lineup versus when he was injured. I wonder if they'd be better off moving him back to strong side linebacker, platooning him with Lamur, and drafting someone more versatile in the middle.  It seems like that would strengthen the roster at both positions and upgrade the backups as well with Maualuga and Lamur essentially backing up each other and Maualuga doubling as the second string middle linebacker.  

How much will they get out of Burfict this year?  Can Hawk resurrect his career after his level of play dipped the past couple of seasons? Will Porter ever make it onto the field?  There are a lot of question marks within this position group.  They have some solid players and their backups are serviceable.  They don't have a lot of two way players, they don't have anyone with blistering speed, and they don't have anyone with significant pass rushing prowess. Drafting a player with some speed that can get after the quarterback would be a pretty good fit.  

Draft Options:

OLB:
None.
I think they'll struggle to find a good fit in round 1.  Beasley will be gone.  Dupree is more of a DE and should be gone (for completeness, ditto on Fowler and Ray).  Gregory could slide, but I'm not sure that I want him.  That leaves you with the likes of Eli Harold (Virginia) and Hau'oli Kikaha (Washington) as the main pass rusher OLB types.  If that is the kind of player they want, they are better off waiting until round 2 to see if either falls.  Are they open to bringing in weak side LB talent even though they are presumably hoping to start Burfict there and have been fairly resistant to moving Burfict inside?  Someone like Shaq Thompson would give them some speed, but they have to figure out whether they can start a 220 lbs. linebacker.  

ILB:

Eric Kendricks (UCLA)
If they go the middle linebacker route, there are a handful of players that will be in play at the bottom of round 1 that can be ranked in just about any order depending on who you read.  They are all slightly different in a rock, paper, scissors sort of way and I could see most of them falling to round 2.  It they decide to reach a little because it makes sense for their roster and they can afford to do it, watch out for Kendricks.

C:

Center might be their weakest starting position.  Have they seen enough of Russel Bodine in year one to move on or are they are going to dig their heels in?  I don't think he's going to be able to improve enough in one offseason to be where they need him to be.  The rest of the roster is ahead of Bodine's development and they can't afford to wait.  
Draft Options:
Cameron Erving (Florida State)
There's really only one place for them to go in round 1 if they want a center.  At 6'5" 315 Erving, a former OT, might be just what they need to anchor the middle of the O-line.  

OT:

Andrew Whitworth is like the 15-year-old car with 200,000 miles on it that doesn’t show any sign of stopping, but makes you nervous to rely on too heavily.  It makes you want to have a backup plan.  Who knows what state Andre Smith will come back in after looking terrible in 2014 before a torn triceps eventually put his awful season out of its misery?  Even if both starters hold up fine this season, the depth behind them isn’t ideal.  It’s not a dire situation, but this is one of the few positions on the roster where I can easily envision slotting draft picks right into.
Draft Options:
T.J. Clemmings (Pittsburgh)
Cedric Ogbuehi (Texas A&M)
I think the top four guys will be gone and the next guy, Ereck Flowers might be a better fit at guard.  That leaves a development prospect like Clemmings or a guy coming off a torn ACL from his bowl game like Ogbuehi. 

TE:
The draft isn’t the place to look for TE’s this year.  They need to hope Tyler Eifert can make it through a season, spend a late round pick on a body, and bring in a veteran that can block.
Draft Options:
These aren’t the droids you’re looking for. 
Move along. 

WR: 

I wouldn’t have figured this as a need a year ago, but the Bengals’ WR stability is more or less hinging on Marvin Jones’ healing foot. This would also seem less urgent if I knew Eifert would be available for most of the year, but that’s a question mark as well.  I’m not sure I’d spend a first round pick on an outside receiver, but how about a really fast guy to play out of the slot (or maybe find someone…ANYONE that can return kicks??  Brandon Tate’s default roster spot because they can’t find anyone better is getting annoying).   

Draft Options:

Philliip Dorsett (Miami)
Tyler Lockett (Kansas State)
The list of interesting WR prospects is long with a wide variety.  If they want a slot player early they could reach slightly for a burner like Dorsett or cross their fingers for Lockett in round 2. 

DE:

It would be nice if they keep funneling defensive end talent onto the roster.  That said, Hunt is a second round pick early in his career.  Clarke is a third round pick early in his career.  They like Gilberry as a backup.  If they draft a DE in day 1 or day 2, they have to say goodbye to at least one of those three guys. 
Draft: Options:
Preston Smith (Mississippi St.)
Owamagbe Odighizuwa (UCLA
Armstead probably goes top 20, but if he falls the 6'7" 290 pounder might be too juicy to pass up.  He's more of a developmental project though and Marvin Lewis will have to light a fire under him.  Smith is one of the few true 4-3 defensive end bodies available.  Odighizuwa is a physical specimen that is stout against the run and average against the pass, or is he? Some analysts actually are baffled he’s not considered a top prospect and think he is one of the better pass rush prospects in the class.  Actually, he kind of sounds like Michael Johnson except shorter with more pass rush potential.  Maybe it’s not a bad idea to bring him in to groom behind Johnson.    

S:

I can’t complain about Reggie Nelson. He has been a fairy tale, but when will he turn into a pumpkin?   George Iloka’s development has been satisfactory, but can they find someone with a higher ceiling?  
Draft Options:
Landon Collins (Alabama)
Collins might slide to 21.  He played almost like a linebacker role for the Crimson Tide.  I think they might just roll with Iloka.

DT:

DT is not a screaming need, but Peko isn't getting any younger.  Physically it is probably getting close to time to replace him, but emotionally he is still a pretty strong force in the locker room.  I think they need to keep him around for at least another season.  The current roster already has Still, Thompson, and Sims fighting it out for 1 or 2 roster spots.  Adding day 1 talent would make for a crowded training camp, but considering DT talent should be pretty rich in the 18 to 25 range I think they have to consider it.
Draft Options:
Jordan Phillips (Oklahoma)  
Malcolm Brown (Texas)
Phillips is a big physical run defender that can be a force at the line of scrimmage.  His inconsistent motor and injury history are just enough to drop him into the 20's.  Brown is less stout than Phillips, but has more penetration skills.  

G:

I initially thought this might be a position needing upgrade until they resigned Clint Boling. They don’t have much depth on the roster right now.  This need probably gets filled in day 3.   


THE PICK
The OT’s are gone. If Landon Collins is available, it will be interesting to see if they bite.  I like the idea of Dorsett, but there will be WR options later.  The more I hear about Odighizuwa, the more I’m kind of pulling for a DE.  Beef up the rotation as much as possible and let the roster figure itself out as guys go down in training camp.  Then again, Erving would be a plug and play replacement for their worst starter.  Dorsett, Odighizuwa, and Erving are probably my personal favorites at this point with Preston Smith and Collins as honorable mentions.  Let’s roll with the DE for now.  Learn how to pronounce the name Bengals fans:
OH-Dig-E-Zoo-Wa!!!

The Cincincinnati Bengals select:  Owamagbe Odighizuwa, DE (UCLA)          

I'll try to check back in before draft day with a final mock.  Cross your fingers.  Hold your breath.  Wish me luck!