1.
Tampa Bay
Even the league's 2014 off-the-field PR blood bath hasn't stopped
Winston's rise to the top of this year's draft class. The debate didn't really even sizzle that
much after Mariota's decent showing at the combine. Scouts gush over Winston’s command of Florida
St.’s pro-style offense and his ability to read, react and anticipate defenses.
Tampa crosses their fingers and gambles on Winston's character. The Pick: Jameis Winston, QB Florida State
2. Tennessee
It only took one pick and now things are getting interesting. A lot of mocks still have Mariota falling in the 6 to 12 range. There are rumors of somebody trading up to grab him, but analysts are balking at who that might be and why that team wouldn't just sit and wait for Mariota to fall to them. I'm in the trade up camp. Even if Tennessee decides to pass on QB, I think Mariota gets taken in the top three no matter what. The number one rule in building a roster (with really no close second) centers around having a plan at quarterback. Say what you want about Mariota's viability as a day one starter, but he is the second best available plan at quarterback right now. What's left in free agency? What's available by trade? What's available in the draft? Winston is the number one plan. Mariota is the number two plan. If you want someone better than that you will have to wait until next year’s draft, and most GM's can't afford to wait.
The Pick: Marcus Mariota, QB Oregon
3.
Jacksonville
Jacksonville sits in a pretty good spot. If Williams is the guy at two, the third pick
might turn into a valuable trade piece.
If Mariota goes two, coach Gus Bradley and the Jaguars will smile and
take the best defensive player in the class. He is a high ceiling, high floor
prospect with the athleticism to play end and the size to rush from the inside
on passing downs.
The Pick: Leonard
Williams, DE USC
4.
Oakland
The whole world has more or less zeroed in on WR for this pick and
I can't disagree. If Carr truly is a
legitimate starter, now is the time to add an elite receiver. Cooper vs. White is an interesting
debate. Especially, considering the
parallels to the 2011 WR class. Cooper
looks like poor man's A.J. Green and White looks like poor man's Julio
Jones. Cooper is smaller than Green, but
has comparable speed and fluidity as he runs down the field.
The Pick: Amari Cooper, WR Alabama
5.
Washington
Washington finally gave up on Brian Orakpo this offseason. Might as well draft his edge rushing
replacement.
The Pick: Dante Fowler, DE Florida
6.
New York Jets
A lot of people are slotting Mariota to the Jets. If they want him I think they have to move
up. Instead they stick with their
defense only in the first round policy and draft the edge rusher Rex Ryan never
found. The Pick: Shane Ray, DE Missouri
7.
Chicago
Not many people are projecting Armstead this high, although several
people have him ranked as a top 10 player in the class. Something is going to give. I think he’s too raw to take here, but Chicago's
new defensive coordinator, Vic Fangio, will covet a player of Arik Armstead's
size (6'7", 290 lbs.) for his system. The Pick: Arik Armstead, DE Oregon
8.
Atlanta
The run on edge rushers continues.
Beasley wins out here. Watch some
game footage of him coming off the line of scrimmage. It can be breathtaking. And he doesn’t get pushed around nearly as
much as his light weight would make you think.The Pick: Vic Beasley, OLB Clemson
9.
New York Giants
The Giants jump at the opportunity to beef up their interior
d-line.The Pick: Danny Shelton, DT Washington
10.
St. Louis
The Rams on the other hand jump at the opportunity to beef up their
interior O-line.The Pick: Brandon Scherff, G Iowa
11.
Minnesota
Will White fall this far?
Most think it would be a steal if he does. The WR depth of the class pushes him down a
bit. The Pick: Kevin White, WR West Virginia
12.
Cleveland
Gregory started the process mocked much higher, but has started to
slide. Most say it is because of the
recent news about his failed drug test.
I think it has more to do with his film.
He gets stymied too often. It
seems like his playmaking ability is more dependent on his opponents’
shortcomings than his own talent. I'm
not sure where to slot him, but I'll leave him here for now.The Pick: Randy Gregory, OLB Nebraska
13.
New Orleans
Peat ends up the top OT off the board (if you count Scherff as a
guard). He’s the best true left tackle prospect
in the class. His thighs look like they could hold up a small building.
The Pick: Andrus Peat, OT Stanford
14.
Miami
Waynes hasn't really been challenged as the top CB in the class. The Dolphins need a little more coverage
support to compliment the big bucks they spent to beef up the front seven. The Pick: Trae Waynes, CB Michigan State
15.
San Francisco
San Fran's step back last year had more to do with the O-line than
anyone is giving credit. The Pick: L'ael Collins, OT LSU
16.
Houston
Teams in the 11 to 15 range will toy with taking Parker, but with
lots of viable WR's available it will be 16-20 before anyone pulls the trigger.
The Pick: DeVante Parker, WR Louisville
17.
San Diego
It is almost a consensus at this point that a RB will be taken in
the first round for the first time in three years. Despite his torn ACL last year, Gurley still
gets the nod. The Pick: Todd Gurley, RB Georgia
18.
Kansas City
I have a feeling Humphries will climb a bit more before all is
said and done. The Chiefs need more
O-line help. The pick: D.J. Humphries, OT Florida
19.
Cleveland
Cleveland’s interior defensive line left a lot to be desired last
year. Brown has size, but can penetrate too. The Pick: Malcom Brown, DT Texas
20.
Philadelphia
Philly whiffed on OLB last year.
Chip Kelly has the guts to try again, even despite the current media
scrutiny surrounding his personnel decisions.
Dupree is one of the most athletic players in this class at 270 lbs. with
room to grow on his frame. The Pick: Bud Dupree, OLB Kentucky
21.
Cincinnati:
The Bengals front office
has once again positioned their roster with options in the first round.
As a matter of fact, when I ask myself about their top need, I have to
pause. The obvious answer: pass rush. But even that leaves
them with positional flexibility. OLB, DE, DT. They could add
talent with a nose for the quarterback anywhere in the front seven they can
find it.
Past that, the needs
aren't glaring. They have average or better talent at just about every
position except maybe center. Consequently, they can focus their
resources on stocking their bench with athletic youth. Maybe that means simply
upgrading their backups and improving depth. Maybe that means drafting
players that can push the starters that are closer to average than above average.
What positions should be on their short list? Let's walk through
the team needs position by position in order of need starting with the
greatest.
Quarterback: Just
kidding. Well kind of. I have always been one to stick up for
Dalton, at least in the sense that his potential is better than most people
give him credit. He's improved every year except 2014 and even then I
tend to give him a pass considering his top receiving target for important
chunks of the season was Mohamed Sanu. Even so, heading into year five with the
Red Ryder assassin at the helm of the offense it is getting harder and harder
to keep the pro-Dalton drum beat. Improved quarterback play is definitely
a team need, but the draft isn't the place to look for help on that front. Not anymore anyway. Full disclosure, this entire paragraph is just
an opportunity to lament last year's first round selection. I don't have
a problem with Darqueze Dennard. They now have Leon Hall’s replacement.
It was a valuable roster move, and it was nice to finally accurately
predict the Bengals' pick for once in my life. But they could have
Drafted Teddy Bridgewater! It was right there in front of them at pick 24. That was it.
That was their last chance to move on from Dalton with a viable starter
before A.J. Green gets old or moves on.
Now, all we can do is sit and wait for Dalton to finally turn the
corner. Who knows, maybe Bridgewater
won't continue on his current path of promise, but right now the way things
look I get sick to my stomach every time I hear him mentioned. It's kind
of like the feeling I get when I think about the "what if" scenario
if the Bengals had drafted Russel Wilson instead of Dalton. Alright, I’ll stop torturing myself. Everything is going to be fine Bengals
fans. Dalton is going to be great. Just you wait and see.
Pass Rush:
This is everyone’s
favorite bullet point when talking about Cincinnati’s offseason. They’ve drawn criticism for not addressing
the pass rush in free agency, and critics will keep chirping after the
draft. It turns out, it’s not that
simple. Everybody is trying to improve
their pass rush. Panicking about it is
just a path to doing something stupid and gumming up the roster for years to
come. They actually did more than I
thought they were going to be able to do in bringing back Michael Johnson in
free agency. Johnson isn’t exactly
Reggie White, but he gives them more stability on that side of the line than
they had. Specifically, Johnson will
massively upgrade the run defense (I still have nightmares of Wallace Gilberry
feverishly crashing on the play-action fake while Cam Newton strolls around the
edge for seventeen straight 10 yard gains).
Better run defense means more obvious passing situations for opposing
offenses. If you know the opponent will
be passing, it is easier to defend. As
usual, the real keys to improving today’s problems hinge on roster moves made in
years past.
The true factors in
improving the 2015 Cincinnati pass rush:
1. Will Geno Atkins look
like Geno Atkins? 2. Can Margus Hunt contribute?
3. Can Will Clarke contribute?
On the draft side, the
pass rush could be improved by dynamic players anywhere in the front seven.
However, unless the perfect opportunity presents itself DE and DT at
least can get shuffled lower on the need list.
Linebacker on the other hand…
Linebacker:
The linebacker play in
general has room for improvement. Lamur was decent, but he's better
against the pass than the run. Maualuga is better against the run than
the pass. This is where I would normally complain about Maualuga getting
another contract this offseason, but it's hard to deny that the defense improved
significantly last year when he was in the lineup versus when he was injured. I
wonder if they'd be better off moving him back to strong side linebacker,
platooning him with Lamur, and drafting someone more versatile in the middle.
It seems like that would strengthen the roster at both positions and
upgrade the backups as well with Maualuga and Lamur essentially backing up
each other and Maualuga doubling as the second string middle linebacker.
How much will they get
out of Burfict this year? Can Hawk resurrect his career after his level
of play dipped the past couple of seasons? Will Porter ever make it onto the
field? There are a lot of question marks within this position group. They
have some solid players and their backups are serviceable. They don't have
a lot of two way players, they don't have anyone with blistering speed, and they
don't have anyone with significant pass rushing prowess. Drafting a player with
some speed that can get after the quarterback would be a pretty good fit.
Draft Options:
OLB:None.
I think they'll struggle to find a good fit in round 1. Beasley will be gone. Dupree is more of a DE and should be gone (for completeness, ditto on Fowler and Ray). Gregory could slide, but I'm not sure that I want him. That leaves you with the likes of Eli Harold (Virginia) and Hau'oli Kikaha (Washington) as the main pass rusher OLB types. If that is the kind of player they want, they are better off waiting until round 2 to see if either falls. Are they open to bringing in weak side LB talent even though they are presumably hoping to start Burfict there and have been fairly resistant to moving Burfict inside? Someone like Shaq Thompson would give them some speed, but they have to figure out whether they can start a 220 lbs. linebacker.
ILB:
Eric Kendricks (UCLA)If they go the middle linebacker route, there are a handful of players that will be in play at the bottom of round 1 that can be ranked in just about any order depending on who you read. They are all slightly different in a rock, paper, scissors sort of way and I could see most of them falling to round 2. It they decide to reach a little because it makes sense for their roster and they can afford to do it, watch out for Kendricks.
C:
Center might be their
weakest starting position. Have they seen enough of Russel Bodine in year
one to move on or are they are going to dig their heels in? I don't think
he's going to be able to improve enough in one offseason to be where they need
him to be. The rest of the roster is ahead of Bodine's development and they
can't afford to wait. Draft Options:
Cameron Erving (Florida State)
There's really only one place for them to go in round 1 if they want a center. At 6'5" 315 Erving, a former OT, might be just what they need to anchor the middle of the O-line.
OT:
Andrew Whitworth is like
the 15-year-old car with 200,000 miles on it that doesn’t show any sign of
stopping, but makes you nervous to rely on too heavily. It makes you want to have a backup plan. Who knows what state Andre Smith will come
back in after looking terrible in 2014 before a torn triceps eventually put his
awful season out of its misery? Even if
both starters hold up fine this season, the depth behind them isn’t ideal. It’s not a dire situation, but this is one of
the few positions on the roster where I can easily envision slotting draft
picks right into. Draft Options:
T.J. Clemmings (Pittsburgh)
Cedric Ogbuehi (Texas A&M)
I think the top four guys will be gone and the next guy, Ereck Flowers might be a better fit at guard. That leaves a development prospect like Clemmings or a guy coming off a torn ACL from his bowl game like Ogbuehi.
TE:
The draft isn’t the place to look for TE’s this year. They need to hope Tyler Eifert can make it through a season, spend a late round pick on a body, and bring in a veteran that can block.
Draft Options:
These aren’t the droids you’re looking for.
Move along.
WR:
I wouldn’t have figured
this as a need a year ago, but the Bengals’ WR stability is more or less
hinging on Marvin Jones’ healing foot. This would also seem less urgent if I
knew Eifert would be available for most of the year, but that’s a question mark
as well. I’m not sure I’d spend a first
round pick on an outside receiver, but how about a really fast guy to play out
of the slot (or maybe find someone…ANYONE that can return kicks?? Brandon Tate’s default roster spot because
they can’t find anyone better is getting annoying).
Draft Options:
Philliip Dorsett (Miami)Tyler Lockett (Kansas State)
The list of interesting WR prospects is long with a wide variety. If they want a slot player early they could reach slightly for a burner like Dorsett or cross their fingers for Lockett in round 2.
DE:
It would be nice if they
keep funneling defensive end talent onto the roster. That said, Hunt is a second round pick early
in his career. Clarke is a third round
pick early in his career. They like
Gilberry as a backup. If they draft a DE
in day 1 or day 2, they have to say goodbye to at least one of those three
guys. Draft: Options:
Preston Smith (Mississippi St.)
Owamagbe Odighizuwa (UCLA
Armstead probably goes top 20, but if he falls the 6'7" 290 pounder might be too juicy to pass up. He's more of a developmental project though and Marvin Lewis will have to light a fire under him. Smith is one of the few true 4-3 defensive end bodies available. Odighizuwa is a physical specimen that is stout against the run and average against the pass, or is he? Some analysts actually are baffled he’s not considered a top prospect and think he is one of the better pass rush prospects in the class. Actually, he kind of sounds like Michael Johnson except shorter with more pass rush potential. Maybe it’s not a bad idea to bring him in to groom behind Johnson.
S:
I can’t complain about
Reggie Nelson. He has been a fairy tale, but when will he turn into a
pumpkin? George Iloka’s development has
been satisfactory, but can they find someone with a higher ceiling? Draft Options:
Landon Collins (Alabama)
Collins might slide to 21. He played almost like a linebacker role for the Crimson Tide. I think they might just roll with Iloka.
DT:
DT is not a screaming
need, but Peko isn't getting any younger. Physically it is probably
getting close to time to replace him, but emotionally he is still a pretty
strong force in the locker room. I think they need to keep him around for
at least another season. The current roster already has Still, Thompson,
and Sims fighting it out for 1 or 2 roster spots. Adding day 1 talent
would make for a crowded training camp, but considering DT talent should be
pretty rich in the 18 to 25 range I think they have to consider it.Draft Options:
Jordan Phillips (Oklahoma)
Malcolm Brown (Texas)
Phillips is a big physical run defender that can be a force at the line of scrimmage. His inconsistent motor and injury history are just enough to drop him into the 20's. Brown is less stout than Phillips, but has more penetration skills.
G:
I initially thought this
might be a position needing upgrade until they resigned Clint Boling. They
don’t have much depth on the roster right now.
This need probably gets filled in day 3. THE PICK
The OT’s are gone. If Landon Collins is available, it will be interesting to see if they bite. I like the idea of Dorsett, but there will be WR options later. The more I hear about Odighizuwa, the more I’m kind of pulling for a DE. Beef up the rotation as much as possible and let the roster figure itself out as guys go down in training camp. Then again, Erving would be a plug and play replacement for their worst starter. Dorsett, Odighizuwa, and Erving are probably my personal favorites at this point with Preston Smith and Collins as honorable mentions. Let’s roll with the DE for now. Learn how to pronounce the name Bengals fans:
OH-Dig-E-Zoo-Wa!!!
The Cincincinnati
Bengals select: Owamagbe Odighizuwa, DE
(UCLA)
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