Images of 300 lb. bodies streaking down the combine field loosely
held together by spandex have streamed relentlessly across the internet. The
monotonous rumor generator is humming... team X is “open for business at number
2”.. team y is “open for business at number 3”.. Team H, I, J, K, LMNO, P is
“open for business” at every other pick in the first round. We’re in the thick of draft season baby! Less than two weeks to go. It’s go time!
I haven’t put eyes on all of the top talent yet, but with my
team holding the number one pick poised to turn the page on the Andy Dalton
era, I’ve youtube searched my way into having an opinion on most of the top
quarterback talent. Here’s how I see
the 2020 QB draft landscape:
J 1. Joe Burrow, LSU
Burrow comes in positioned as the consensus slam dunk number
1 pick whose number one prospect candidacy somehow simultaneously has an
awkward vibe to it. Part of the paradox relates
to his physical traits. He is tall but a little lean with small hands. He can throw downfield but he
doesn’t have a cannon. He can scramble
but he’s not exactly fast. The
measurable traits don’t make you drool, but he modestly checks boxes. The gravitational pull to Joe Burrow comes
from more subtle characteristics: pocket presence, accuracy, the ability to
read and react, confidence, moxie (you know, actual moxie.. not the sophomoric,
petulant kind that everyone decided to call “moxie” when Baker Mayfield was
coming out). Although difficult to
measure, Burrow’s strengths are the most important ingredients for a QB prospect’s
success, and when you tally it all up, well he just kind of levitates a little
higher than everyone else.
He sashays
around the pocket escaping pressure like he has eyes in the back of his head, he
throws with pinpoint accuracy, but the
mortar that binds it all together to make for one bad*&$$ QB is how well he
tracks movement downfield while he’s sliding around before he has to sling it. If there’s one thing I’d criticize, he tends
to take off to run a little too much. A
lot of it might have been circumstantial in terms of designed runs and taking
what defenses were giving as they overcompensated to defend against LSU’s
potent downfield weapons. Still it makes
me a little nervous. He has some
athleticism to capitalize on rushing opportunities, but there’s just enough
stiffness in his gait to make me question whether he has the athleticism to
scramble for yardage in the NFL.
Burrow is a
great prospect, but it did take a little while for him to win me over.
- Some of it had to do with slowly digesting
his finer traits that I’ve hashed through above.
- Some of it had to do with him having to
transfer away from Ohio State to get a starting job.
-Combined with lucking into LSU
transitioning into an offensive staff/system that seemed to give the Tigers a
tactical advantage against most college defenses.
-Combined with the offensive talent on his
team being superior to just about everyone other than Alabama.
-Combined with the contrast in degrees of
success between his two years of starting at LSU.
Then the more I watched, I started to see some of the
advantages. Oddly enough, what first caught
my eye wasn’t the downfield precision that everyone lauds, but it was his short
passes. He has a way of throwing screens
and outlet passes where he just flicks the ball pinpointed right to where the
receiver needs it like he’s Spiderman with a web shooter. As someone who has watched Andy Dalton for the
last nine years squandering available yardage on screen passes spraying throws
to approximate spots, constantly getting passes batted, throwing his little
moon ball outlet passes that have
inevitably almost led to the death of multiple running backs… MAN was it a sight for sore eyes (Somewhere Gionvanni Bernard is nodding
sadly). Anyway, summing it up, I’m in! Burrow is the right man for the job. His skill set matches Cincy’s scheme. His personality is a good fit for the city. The Bengals young new regime has their man to
build around.
2 2. Tua Tagovailoa, Alabama
The tank for Tua sweepstakes has headlined
the draft landscape for the past two years.
The story took an interesting twist in 2019 as the guy who’s been
penciled in as the 2020 number one pick since the 2017 National Championship
game suffered two more injuries requiring his second and third surgeries in the
last two seasons. Despite recent
positive medical reports, surgeries on each ankle and one on his hip are a
little unsettling. The fact that he’s
even still being considered in the top 5 speaks to his quality as a prospect
(can you imagine the debates we would have had on the top QB if he hadn’t hurt
his hip?).
Yet, ask me what Tagovailoa does best and
it gives me pause. Similar to Burrow
he’s good at just about everything, but he pulls his real advantage from some
of the less tangible traits. He’s more
mobile than Burrow, but I wouldn’t call him a running quarterback. He makes throws all over the field but I
wouldn’t say he has elite accuracy or arm strength. There just aren’t too many flaws and the
deficiencies that do exist seem fixable (trying to buy time by back pedaling
and simultaneously throwing off target, getting duped by a particular coverage
causing some of his picks etc.). Looking
at his overall resume, he has been one of the most efficient quarterbacks in
college football history. Granted he’s
also had some of the best receiving corps ever,
but he still deserves a significant amount of credit for his decision
making and ability to make plays going all the way back to his freshman season
on the biggest stage in college football.
People were a little overzealous with the
Kyler Murray to Russel Wilson comp last year (I might have even floated it once
or twice) but watching Tagovailoa this year makes me think that was folly. It’s not a direct comparison. Citing Wilson as the ceiling in terms of
range of outcomes is even a little ambitious but he has the talent to at
least be in the same ball park. Throw in
the injuries and he’s slotted right where he should be in the top 6 as the
number 2 QB prospect.
3 3. Jordan Love, Utah State
Love impressed enough in 2018 to be on the
top QB watch list but shaky numbers in 2019 silenced most of the buzz. My take after watching a few of his games is
to reaffirm that college stats should always be taken with a grain of
salt. Whether it’s abysmal TD to INT
ratios or exorbitant yards per carry numbers, none of it can be used to judge
prospects without careful consideration of context. If your team lost 9 of 11 starters on offense
and changed their coaching staff would you expect better or worse stats? Now
apply that same situation to the youthful volatility of a college football
program and you start to shrug off Love throwing more interceptions in
2019. Apparently others feel similarly
because coming out of the combine, the buzz on Love has resumed. Some people have even whispered the P word…
as in Patrick Mahommes. I don’t think
it’s necessarily people making a direct comparison. It’s more..here’s a raw prospect with lots of
tools that will blossom quickly in the right situation. Still, let’s slow down with even trying to
make loose associations to the best football player in the world. I won’t pretend like I watched Mahommes and
thought he was going to ascend to top QB-Super Bowl champion-league MVP status
within three years or anything like that, but I remember a very specific “whoa”
reaction and thinking he had a chance of actually living up to the Brett Favre
comparison that people constantly recycle every time there’s a gunslinger
prospect. Jordan Love is not that. He has a good frame, he’s mobile, and he can
make throws all over the field with adequate vision and streaky downfield
accuracy. If we’re going to make lofty
comparisons to an established star, Love is not a Mahommes-like revolutionary
talent. Think more in the range of a junior
version of Cam Newton both physically (6’3” 225 lbs. vs. 6’5” 250 lbs.) and in
terms of his field presence. He plays
similar, but Newton at Auburn was an unstoppable force of nature with the
gravitational pull of a planet. Love
would qualify as a much smaller celestial object.
Still, the talent to be a top ten quarterback
in the league is there. The notion is nonsense that no one should
pull the trigger on him until late round 1 because he’s too raw. Yes, he needs to develop and there’s some
risk, but as long as teams have confirmed he’s a good kid that’s going to take
the job seriously, he’s worth it. My
philosophy is to ask what’s the ceiling , what’s the floor, and (most
critically) what’s the probability that he’s going to hit either? If you assess a greater than 10% chance of
getting a top one or two tier QB in the league, then go for it. Wait as long as you dare, then pull the
trigger. In this case, I see it. The allure of the elite talent in this class
will probably allow for a little leeway if you want Love, but don’t wait too
long. He should go top 12 in this draft.
4 4. Justin Herbert, Oregon
Herbert is a physical specimen. Some would even say he’s too tall. However, with size, athleticism, and arm
strength to spare most simply drool over his physical presence. His lower key personality has been
questioned, but he’s made a concerted effort to show he has the passion and
guts to lead a team even if it is more of a quiet fire that burns in his
belly.
Herbert is physically impressive for sure,
but I don’t see any one trait strong enough to push the ceiling high for
him. He’s athletic, but not electric
when he runs. His arm strength is above
average, but when he does throw down the field, it’s a bit of an adventure as a
viewer wondering where the ball is going to go as the camera pans to follow his
passes. He doesn’t throw as wild as Josh
Allen, but he’s not as dangerous scrambling and his arm isn’t quite as
strong. Slightly more polished but less
explosive Josh Allen. Where would you
draft him?
Reports indicate there’s a decent top ten
market for Herbert. I think he’s going
to slide a little but not too far. Teams
with uncertainty at QB haven’t been aggressive lately going after veteran QB’s,
but will likely be more tempted to add a young rookie with potential. Herbert stands to benefit from the steep drop
off after QB4 in this draft class.
Between picks 10 and 15 is more the range I’m thinking.
Back Up Please:
I think four quarterbacks go in the first round for sure, but I don't think there's anyone else I'd take until at least round 3. It's hard to rank these guys because for the most part I think you're looking at backup quarterback quality players without much starter potential that will differ in value from team to team based on offensive scheme. Jalen Hurts for example is a good athlete who's been battle tested in high pressure situations but doesn't have enough passing talent to be a quality starter. He'd be great for Baltimore. Jake Fromm? Not so much. Here's the rough order I'd put them in, but it kind of depends what you're shopping for.
5 5. Jacob Eason, Washington
Eason’s calling card is his rocket
arm. He can fire the ball into just
about anywhere, but is effective putting a little touch on his passes when he
needs to. Some team will likely tab him
as their future QB on day 2 of the draft.. I would be hesitant. It’s a bit harrowing watching him play. If Herbert passing downfield is an adventure,
watching Eason throw is like riding on the handlebars of someone’s bike while
going down a mountain. He has stretches
where he has the offense rolling and I start to think maybe he is a first round
pick and then the train will come off the rails in spectacular fashion. One play from the Utah game he drops back
turns and fires about an eight yard out and then immediately starts sprinting
over to get in position to make a tackle before the corner even jumps the route
to pick off the pass. To his credit, and
maybe his fault at times, he doesn’t seem to have much memory. He’ll come out the next series slinging it…
spinning away from pressure, rolling right, and rocketing a pass downfield
leading a blanketed receiver perfectly for an improbable completion. He shows flashes of greatness for sure, but
if you decide he’s your man, good luck.
He’ll make you laugh and he’ll make you cry.. probably in a matter of minutes.
6 6. James Morgan,
Florida International
This is the one guy outside of the top four that I’d point
to that has the ceiling to develop into a pretty good starter. He looked outstanding throwing short to
intermediate routes but he showed little to nothing in terms of downfield
accuracy. Plug him in as a backup for a
few years and maybe you catch lightning in a bottle.
7 7. Tyler Huntley, Utah
Okay, disclaimer here: I’m going out on a limb with this one. Huntley is buried on most ranking lists I’ve
seen and he wasn’t even invited to the combine, but I’m telling you there’s
something to this guy. He’s an
experienced three year starter. I
wouldn’t call his size and arm strength prototypical but he won’t look out of
place as a quarterback in the league.
He’s not going to terrify defenses with his speed, but he’s elusive in
the pocket and can tuck and run when needed.
His accuracy seems fantastic at times.
He’ll make 5 or 6 great throws and then he’ll have a couple of
head-scratching worm burners. I was
surprised to see how low people have him ranked. He looks like he commands the field well even
if there is a bit of a frantic nature to him.
Does he have the juice to fill the cornerstone role for a
franchise? He has potential, but he
looks like the guy that comes off the bench and makes you say, “whoa, who’s
this guy??” And then after three weeks
he makes you wonder when the injured starter is coming back. Can he eventually develop from impressive
backup into a mid-tier starter in a Kirk Cousins’ish sort of way? Maybe.
I’m not staking more than a day 3 pick on it, but I’m rooting for you
Tyler Huntley! He at the very least
belongs on a pro roster and if I’m really being honest with myself I’m ranking
him two spots higher on this list.
8 8. Jalen Hurts, Oklahoma
Good athlete without much passing
talent. We’ve already seen Hurts’
perfect roll at Alabama when he relieved Tua in the playoffs to hold things
together, make a few plays, and pull out a win.
He’s a hard worker with great character who won’t be scared when he has
to play in a pinch. He’s the perfect backup that I always said Tim Tebow should
have been only he’s better because everyone
knows that he shouldn’t start.
9 9. Jake Fromm, Georgia
Once considered a top prospect, Fromm played enough games in
college to show he’s never going to be good enough athletically or mentally to
be more than an average starter. Sure that
might not be the end of the world for some situations, but why draft a guy in
the top 90 picks if his ceiling is Andy Dalton?
10. Bryce Perkins, Virginia
Made it to the ACC title championship game
without a lot around him. Tough as
nails. He has a loopy throwing motion
that just barely gets the job done. Athletic. He straddles the line between backup quality and
needing a position switch.
Somebody Call Vince McMahon:
Quick note, I didn’t watch much more than
these last three guys yet, and I don’t know if I’ll have time to circle back
around. Of the guys I watched enough to
have an opinion, this is the thanks but no thanks category. Brian Lewerke, Kelly Bryant, and any other
eligible players showing on super deep ranking lists: I apologize if you are actually better than
anyone on this list. Someday I’ll have
enough bandwidth to make sure no one falls through the cracks but today is not
that day.
1 11. Anthony Gordon, Washington State
Smaller feisty prospect. He didn’t seem to do much outside of the Mike
Leach scheme. It felt like constant
screens and five yard crossers and I didn’t see anything that really sucked me
in.
1 12. Steven Montez, Colorado
I thought it was hard to get a feel for
Laviska Shenault because Colorado’s offense just wasn’t up to snuff and Montez
appeared to be part of the problem.
13. Nate Stanley, Iowa
These aren’t the droids you’re
looking for. Move along.
That's it! Overall, it's a decent class. There's not much depth, but the top four have a pretty good shot at being quality starters including two capable of being more than that. That's nothing to sneeze at considering there have been years when E.J. Manuel, Geno Smith, and Mike Glennon were the top three quarterbacks selected, but still the lack of sleeper talent on day 2 and beyond weighs this group down a little.
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