Superstition won't stop me though from laying out my predictions for how the season will play out! Here's how I see things unfolding in the AFC.
Cincinnati 6-10
Bengaldom is brimming with optimism coming off consistent reports over the last month that Joe Burrow seized the reigns of the franchise with steely confidence during his first training camp. It's hard not to get over excited, but let's just try to keep perspective this season and not fret too much if the wins don't pile up right away. Give the guy a chance to get his feet under him. Yes, there's an outside chance the stars could align and Burrow could come out guns blazing, but the roster is still in a bit of a transition to where a lot of things would have to go right for Cincy to push their record much higher than 6 or 7 wins.
The biggest X-factor for this team's season outlook is the offensive line. Widely viewed as one of the league's worst units, they are starting a LT that has never played in an NFL game. Their left guard is a second-year day 3 draft pick. Their center is a former undrafted free agent that bounced around the Bengals practice squad and the lower rungs of their depth chart until he finally blossomed into a starter a five years into his career. Their right guard is a free agent veteran that never panned out in Houston or Dallas. And the right tackle..Well, they're still starting Bobby Hart.
Yet, there's an irrational confidence coming from the coaching staff that they can make this work. Maybe I'm a sucker, but I'm starting to believe it. Of course, the coaches are always going to be steadfast in their ability to succeed with what they've got. But this feels different. There have certainly been years where despite their best efforts to put up a positive front, you could tell they knew they were in trouble (remember the year the installed Cedric Ogbuehi as the starter?). This seems a little more real. Are they being delusional? Will they be derailed by excessive injuries again? Maybe, but pass or fail I don't think there's a bigger pressure point for this team's success. Yes, there's always a giant question mark when a rookie starts at the most important position. Yes, the defense is in transition with an injection of free agent starters, youth at linebacker, and the stalwarts on the D-line aging towards the ends of their primes. Yes, the offensive skill talent could be potent if they could just string together a healthy season. But the team is going to sink or swim with how well they can block up front.
How does it play out? I'm marking them down for two wins in the division. 2 wins against the NFC East. 2 wins against the AFC South, and the Chargers and Dolphins flex games will determine if they can claw their way to 8-8. I have them losing both to end up at 6-10, which generally wouldn't be deemed respectable, but all things considered it probably would be in this case. Remember, we'ere not only dealing with a fledgling quarterback, but the young coaching staff needs to take baby steps as well. All we are looking for is progress. Next, year maybe we can start thinking about a winning record, but for now it's all about improvement. Luckily, they went 2-14 last year so there isn't much room for anything else.
Baltimore 11-5
I came into this with a funny feeling Baltimore might have a hiccup season. Watch out for Lamar Jackson getting the Michael Vick treatment this year to where everyone comes in with their primary focus on making sure he takes hits when he runs the ball. It's easier said than done for sure, but it seems like a natural reaction to what he did to defenses last year. That said, it's hard to find losses on this schedule. I just don't think Cleveland or Cincinnati can defend against their rushing attack and it's hard to imagine them dropping more than 2 or 3 games in the AFC South, NFC East slate. They split with K.C. and New England and defend the AFC North Crown.
Pittsburgh 10-6
I finally stopped predicting Ben Roethlisberger's demise last year, and it was the one year he actually got hurt. I don't want anyone to get injured, but maybe I can work my magic again. Roethlisberger is going to show signs of wear and tear, but lead the team back into the playoffs.
Cleveland 7-9
A one game improvement feels like I'm low balling the Browns a little considering their potential for a bounce back year, but I don't believe in Baker Mayfield and with a rookie head coach they will likely lose a couple more of the 50/50 games than they should.
Tennessee 11-5
Many are predicting regression for a team that over achieved in 2019. I think they are going to build on what they established last year and slug their way to a division title.
Jacksonville 4-10
Gardner Minshew will entertain us. He'll rack up some stats, but struggle to pull out many victories. The jaguars are headed back to the draft with a top 10 pick.
Houston 8-8
This feels low. They'll be successful within the South, but a tough schedule outside of their division playing both North divisions and the Chiefs and Patriots for their flex games leaves them on the outside looking in come playoff time.
Indianapolis 9-7
One last hurrah for Phillip Rivers. I’m buying the narrative he can turn back the clock a little behind a formidable offensive line. On defense Chris Ballard has slowly built a solid all around unit and the long forgotten pre-pandemic trade for Deforest Buckner might push them over the top in terms of being able to affect the outcomes of games on both sides of the ball.
New England 10-6
The Cam Newton experiment in New England starts hot and fades late. They thrash the bad teams and struggle to keep up with the good teams.
Buffalo 10-6
The Bills squeak out a division title behind great defense and steadier than usual offense that doesn’t have a ton of weaknesses other than Josh Allen’s consistency. If he plays like he did in the first half of the playoff game, watch out (I might be low balling them here with my 10-6)! If he plays like he did in the second half of the playoff game, watch out.. for falling shrapnel.
Miami 7-9
Most people are all in on the Brian Flores era. I’ll mark them down as frisky for this year. I’m not ready to start talking wild card yet.
New York Jets 3-13
Which is worse for the Jets:
They come out scrappy and prove the naysayers wrong with a seven to nine win season.. effectively extending the Adam Gase era.
OR
All of the bread crumbs for spontaneous combustion in the locker room come to fruition, Gase gets ousted, and the franchise suffers through another year as one of the worst teams in the league.
I have to stay, if I’m a fan of the team, option one is a nightmare.
Las Vegas 6-10
I feel like the Raiders are more of a 7 or 8 win team, but I just couldn’t get the numbers to work. The defense will struggle to find itself and Derek Carr won’t be able to shake his old tendencies.
I’m calling it right now:
Gruden will do his best to claw up the draft board and the Raiders end up trading up into the top 5.
Los Angeles Chargers 10-6
The quarterback situation has many fading the Chargers. I think Tyrod Taylor is going to surprise some people. The defense lost Derwin James again, but still has plenty of horse power to make a playoff push.
Denver 3-13
This is one of my bigger swings. bad offensive tackles and a bad quarterback play is a bad combination. Maybe Drew Lock will surprise me, but for now he’s a bottom five starter in the league. By my forecast they’ll hold the number one pick in the spring with a very intriguing decision to make.
Losing the cornerstone of their defense could be enough to cause the whole unit to crumble. On the bright side, this sets up Bradley Chubb as the primary pass rusher which I was curious to see watching him as a draft prospect. I suspect he can’t handle it.
Kansas City 13-3
It’s hard to imagine this team NOT torching the league this year. They are the defending champs and everyone is scheming to catch up. We’ll see how they hold up.
Playoff Picture
1. Kansas City
2. Tennessee
3.Baltimore
4.Buffalo
5. Pittsburgh
6. New England
7. Los Angeles Chargers
Tennessee smothers L.A.
New England doesn’t have the horse power to keep up with Baltimore.
Buffalo takes care of Pittsburgh to complete a chalk first round.
Josh Allen shocks the world in round two With a Mahommes-esque performance and K.C. is one and done.
Tennessee has Baltimore’s number setting up a lower wattage AFC championship game.
Josh Allen comes down to earth and the Titans roll into Tampa for the Super Bowl!
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