2O21 Week 1 Reactions

Week One takeaways:

Tee Higgins Looks Like a Monster

Could he play tight end? If they get him in the open field he might generate some Marshawn-Lynch-worthy highlights. Let’s make it happen Brian Callahan! Watch him run through that tackle on the first drive of the third quarter. Ooohph. He was on the sideline so he didn’t  break it far, but It’s coming. He is RAC waiting to happen.

D-line Dominance?

It’s going to break my heart when injuries break apart this D-line. I hope we get a chance to see their full potential. Duke Tobin deserves a much healthier portion of the heat that Zac Taylor has taken for what has happened the last two years, but at first glance it looks like he’s been pushing the right buttons with this year’s moves. Hendrickson, Ogunjobi, B.J. Hill. Tobin has it rolling. 

The Minnesota O-line had six holding penalties last week. It’s not like the refs just decided to start calling the holds that occur on every NFL play. The Vikings linemen were having to tackle Bengals defenders to keep them from breaking Kirk Cousins. Cincy blitzed Hilton one play but the DE beat his man and got there first. Whether Ogunjobi, Reader and the boys can control the game like they did last week is one of the top storylines for me in week 2.  Analysts keep harping on how bad the Vikings must be because of how shaky they looked last week. Are we burying the lead here?

Zac Attack

Speaking of Zac Taylor, he has taken criticism for going for it on 4th and 1 on his own 30 and opening the door for the Vikings to get back in the game. That drew a shoulder shrug from me. Everyone agrees NFL coaches should generally be more aggressive than they have been historically. So where’s the cutoff? The 35 yard line? The 40? Okay on the 40, but not good on the 39? Yes, Distance, clock, and score all matter. In this case I think Taylor felt he his team faced a situation where the chance for success on one play (needing to gain one yard) was good, and success on that play would contribute more towards putting a boot on the throat of their opponent than failure would contribute to losing the game. Looking at it in hindsight, I have to say he was right. He got the worst possible outcome (his offense could not gain a yard and his defense wasn’t able to minimize the damage), and his team still had many other opportunities to win the game. If they had been successful at worst they would have run two more minutes off the clock and at best they could have potentially gone up by three scores. If you are a young team/staff that wants to be good they have to figure out how to get a yard when they really need it. Now they have valuable experience to help them execute better the next time and they still won the game. It was worth the risk short term and long term.  

I don’t think Taylor’s seat should be as hot as everyone thinks it is. Ok, he has a bad record in his first two seasons. What does that actually tell us? Taylor is not a magician. How many coaches would have had a significantly higher win total with the same roster?  Is that what we’re looking for here, the second we’re sure the hire can’t pull rabbits out of his butt they should fire him and look for somebody who can? To quote Sam Wyche, C’mon people! “You don’t live in Cleveland!” Constant coaching turnover is a slippery slope as teams have proven over and over. Yes, this coaching staff is cutting their teeth. If that’s not what you want don’t hire a staff with almost no coordinating experience in the top three slots on the staff (HC, DC, and OC).” The Bengals hired Taylor because of his proximity to McVay” might be the most exasperating narrative around. They hired him because they were impressed talking to him and they wanted someone they could make their own and someone that could grow with the team and the city. The media doesn’t seem to get that. Luckily Mike Brown does. Has the team improved each year under Taylor? I don’t want to jinx it too much, but yes. Do the players appear to be buying in to what Taylor is selling? Yes. Ok then, let him make a few mistakes without everyone lining up with torches and pitchforks. Give him a half way decent roster and let’s see what he can do. 

Is this roster going to be the one to give him a fair shake? I have my fingers crossed. I can’t wait until weeks two and three to find out. 

What to Make of the 2021 Bengals Preseason and AFC North Predictions

The wait is finally over! The 2021 NFL season kicked off Thursday night and the rest of the league launches tomorrow.  Here are a few quick Cincinnati-Based preseason takes and my outlook on how i see the AFC North playing out this year:

Gloom and Doom for #1:

Is there anything more overblown than the "Ja'Marr Chase Struggles in the Preseason" saga?  

Let's start with the drops.  He dropped his last four targets and everyone from local media, to national analysts, to fantasy owners everywhere have seized on it like the whole world is chicken little and the biggest acorn in the world just cracked them in the skull. Okay they were mostly catchable balls, but branding them as "red alert, maybe this guy can't catch" miscues is a little agressive.  The first one was a quick slant that Brandon Allen threw a yard behind him.  Another one, Allen led him up the field into tight coverage and the safety was lining him up to take his head off.  Maybe at some point you want him putting his body on the line to make that play, but week 2 of the preseason is not the time to stretch out your body and let the defense take their best shot.  So he made a business decision?? Oh know!! The truth is, I have no idea and it doesn't really matter.  He's been in bubble-wrap-don't-get- hurt mode since January of 2020.  I'm not concerned that his reactions to the extreme chaos of a football play are a little rusty.  He's clearly competitive and dedicated.  It will come.  It might take one game.  It might take 15 games.  But it will come.  The last drop was a wide receiver screen that hit him right in his hands.There was a defender bearing down on him.  He did kind of a funky hop thing that screwed up his timing. He was clearly pressing to make something out of nothing.  But he should have caught it.  And he will.  Just wait.   

The "Chase isn't seperating in practice," rumblings strike a little more of a chord of fear in the bottom of my stomach. It takes me back to the spring when i was rewatching his game tape and i paused for a few moments trying to decide whether to rank him as the top receiver.  He does rely on his physicality to get open.  Is he going to be able to pull that off in the pros?  After mulling it over, I decided yes.  Whatever uptick he'll see in the size and athleticism of the defenders he'll be facing in the NFL he'll be able to match it as his body and rout running develop.  He was already a beast as a 19 year old.  What happens when he really dedicates himself?  It's more of a projection than i would like, but i still believe in it.  Will he be a bust?  No, I don't think that's likely.  Will he be a superstar?  That one is a little murkier.  But from what I've read and heard of his personality and work ethic, I wouldn't bet against him.  

Feisty Defense?

Is the defense good?  Of course injuries are always the biggest wild card here.  Although the team made it through preseason relatively unscathed compared to the prevous two years, they have already lost significant edge depth and their CB2. If D.J. Reader has anything to say about it, the D-line will be fine.  He was a terror in the preseason, consistently disposing of interior blockers and rushing throws from both Tom Brady and Ryan Fitzpatrick.  It would have been nice to see a full season from Joseph Ossai, but don't overrate the loss of him too much.  Sam Hubbard and Trey Hendrickson might surprise you with how well they hold up.  The Bengals routinely took pot shots from media for swapping out Carl Lawson for Hendrickson in free agency based on Lawson's greater potential as a pure pass rusher.  The Bengals took a different approach here.  They are addressing the lack of pass rush production by trying to get better on earlier downs opting for a bigger player with a better injury history.  So far that bet has paid off.    

The secondary appeared to be the strength of the unit early in camp, but Trae Waynes going down quickly hilighted their CB depth is a little shaky.  They're still better than last year, but I think we'll find Waynes is more of a keystone to them consistently performing well than any of us would care to admit.   He needs to come back healthy in week 4. 

I'm optimistic about the young LB's, but i think they'll have some growing pains this year.  

All in all, the defense has more depth and potential than previous years.  The front office has cleared out some of the dead wood and they are in a good position to grow and flourish.  They need to catch a few breaks (or avoid some), but i have high hopes they will make a leap.  

It All Hinges on This:

Did the Bengals do enough to improve the O-line in the offseason?  Most pundits lean towards no. I hedge a little more.  I wish they would have done more.  I think the starting O-line will be good enough with the caveat that Xavier Su'a-filo is still a below average starter that could weigh them down.  Their depth feels like they are one injury away from being back where they were last year.  The second string interior O-line, comprised of three rookies, is going to have ups and downs when they see the field. At OT, i'd feel way better if Hakeem Adeniji was the fourth OT rather than Isaiah Prince, but they might be better off than people think with Fred Johnson as the first man off the bench at both LT and RT.  Johnson was awful when they tried him at guard last year, but whenever i've seen him fill in at OT he has been okay.  If someone really goes down and he has to start double digit games, well maybe then i'm singing a different tune but for now i like him as the primary backup.  Don't rule out D'ante Smith as a long shot to surprise some people if he has to play in a pinch.  They might have struck gold taking Smith on day two of the draft.  He's shown enough in his first camp/preseason to hang your hopes on him as the team's best chance to develop their O-line from being a constant concern to being consistently good within the next two to three seasons.  

It's disappointing Jackson Carman didn't win the LG spot, but all hope is not lost.  In the first preseason game, he didn't look like he'd be sniffing the field any time soon, but after receiving critisim for his work ethic and preparedness early in camp, he responded well and flashed potential in the seond and third games.  I'm still skeptical about his ability to contribute much this year, but there is some chance they decide his athleticism gives them more punch in the run game and he ends up coming through for them.

In the end, like most things in this league, it all comes down to injuries.  

AFC North Predictions:

Pittsburgh 11-6

Baltimore 10-8

Cincinnati 9-8 

Cleveland 7-10

After all of these years of doubting Ben Roethlisberger i've come full circle to believing in one last revival season when everyone else is counting him out.  The offensive skill weapons can rival anyone in the league and the core of a potent defense is still in tact.  

The Ravens have taken more injury lumps in the preseason than anyone.  It's tempting to crater them into a lesser record here, but i still believe in the infrastructure and their potency of Lamar Jackson

  

Cincinnati makes a leap here, but it's really not that big of a jump if you consider what might have been with a full Burrow season last year.  They should have been at 6 or 7 wins last year.  It's to hard to believe a more well-rounded roster in 2021 doesn't get them another win or two.  The home opener against Minnesota was a coming out party for the Carson Palmer / Chad Johnson era once upon a time.  Maybe there will be magic in the air to start the year off?  I've got them at 3-1 against the NFC North and  2-2 against the AFC West. I think they handle the Jets and Jaguars and go 2-4 in the division with wins against the Browns and Ravens.  Overall it will be a positive season, but they'll need to tighten up their division play to really take the next step.  

Cleveland rounds out the division with a disappointing 7-10 record.  They're a little overhyped at this point based on the beliefs that the strength of their offensive line will hold, their talented defense will gel, and that Baker Mayfield will even out his erractic play to guide them back to the playoffs.  I'm betting against all three.   

2021 Bengals Draft Class Review

 Round 1: Ja’Marr Chase, WR LSU

We did it! I’ve been dreaming of this pick for basically 12 months and somehow it actually happened.  It took a catastrophic injury to the franchise savior for Cincy to  pick high enough,  a historical quarterback draft class to push Chase down low enough, an abnormally deep O-line class to make passing on blocking help early even remotely palatable, and an existing connection between Chase and Burrow to make the projection simpler. It was a long shot when you really add it all up, but somehow all of the pieces fell into place and Ja’marr Chase is a Cincinnati Bengal.

I’ve walked through in previous posts what I think of Chase and why I think taking him over Sewell is the right move. The icing on the cake for me is his attitude and personality. When asked about following up receivers like Chad Johnson and A.J. Green he doesn’t even hesitate.  Oh I’m going to break every record the team has. I don’t know how I’m going to do it, but I’m going to get it done. It’s bold. It’s brash. And somehow it seems to carry weight. It’s hard to put a finger on it at first. It’s not shallow optimism. It’s not arrogance. It’s just a firm statement dripping with cold calculated determination. And that’s why Chase is my new favorite player.

Round 2: Jackson Carman, OT Clemson

This pick is the classic gut punch in the moment that might turn sweeter as the dust settles.

When I first watched Carman I liked his size. I thought he blocked with power and flashed agility, but not enough laterally to consistently fight off edge pressure. I saw him as a mid day 3 player. Others I trust had him ranked as more of a third rounder.

Hearing his name at 46 after what felt like an unthinkable bounty of OT/ G talent fell to them at 38 was disappointing.

Then I started to read and rewatch more and a few things started to shift my thinking.

One: 

The coaching staff immediately declared that Carman is going to compete at guard with some long term OT potential. For whatever reason I hadn’t considered Carman moving inside. Rewatching him after seeing  a G next to his name was like taking blinders off.  Take advantage of the power and straight line athleticism and limit the exposure of lateral agility weaknesses.  Carman gets downfield with ease. Often linemen struggle to make contact when hunting smaller defenders on the second level. Carman regularly gets his hands on DB’s and LB’s and usually buries them. 

Two: 

His coaches and trainers rave about his football knowledge and thirst for information. We’ll see. That kind of info can be fluffy sometimes, but it does show up some watching his movements and decisions as he processes each play unfolding.

Three: 

He played the back section of the season with a back issue that required cleanup surgery after the season.  That’s a bit of a double edged sword. The surgery gives me some pause projecting Carman as a 2021 starter and his long term potential but it also provides context watching him play Ohio State and Notre Dame late in the season. If healthy maybe his lateral movement won’t limit him as much and he does have long term tackle potential. This almost has Andrew Whitworth vibes.

It’s important to always keep in the back of your mind that we don’t have the full picture when looking at these evaluations. Is there a reason Tevin Jenkins was widely considered a top 25 talent and the whole league basically passed on him until pick 39?  I’ve gotten to the point with this pick to where I understand their evaluation. I would have liked to have tried to grab him a round later but they didn’t feel they could wait. Now we have to let it play out to see if they were right.

Round 3: Joeseph Ossai, DE Texas

Round 4a: Cam Sample, DE Tulane

Round 4b: Tyler Shelvin, DT LSU

With the middle section of their draft class the Bengals opted to go for defensive line depth.

Pegged as a steal falling into the third round, I’m a little lower on the Ossai pick than most people.  I think they reached 20 or 30 picks to be honest.

Ossai looks like a linebacker in a hybrid edge defender’s body playing defensive end. He has outstanding power, explosive straight line burst, and relentless effort. He just struggles to turn the corner. I don’t know if he can create on his own.  Yes, he does to some extent with his high motor, but even that depends on the secondary holding up long enough for him to outlast blockers and find his way home. I’m not sure he’s ever going to be a pure edge rusher. He needs the scheme to create gaps for him to blow through. He’s more of a scavenger than a hunter. He needs a blocking weakness to exploit. They drafted a useful tool for their repertoire, but I don’t think there’s high end upside here. 

Sample isn’t quite as twitchy but he’s more in the Sam Hubbard mold of a guy with inside outside versatility with enough size to fight off blocks and find his way to the ball to make plays. 

Shelvin is a mountain of a man. Two gap nose tackles aren’t exactly a hot commodity in today’s league, but if he pans out  Shlevin could prove useful in a division where everyone likes to smash you in the face with the run game. I don’t see the talent in him to wreck pass blocking schemes but he might enhance D.J. Reader by lightening his load on run defense. 

I don’t hate these picks but I go back to what I would have done with this draft class: 

WR, OT/G, OT/G, OT/G, OT/G, then best available RB/WR/def after that. 

Overdose on O-line depth and offensive weapons now and worry about defense later. Would they have some tough roster decisions in August and cut some of the guys they just invested in? Probably so. But they’d have more margin for error trying to maximize their depth to where they can navigate a full season with a competent offensive line. Instead these picks say to me they’re trying to thread the needle of bringing the whole roster up to snuff at the same time.  It’s admirable but more risky.  You have to fix the offense now. Just take as many swings as possible and worry about the defense another day. You know like April 2022.   You’re not going to the Super Bowl this year anyway.

4c D’Ante Smith, OT East Carolina

They got back to business rebuilding the O-line with their last pick of the fourth round. Smith missed most of his first and last college seasons due to injury. He played at 280 to 290 lbs.  He played a lower level of competition in the AAC. There was no shortage of reasons to dock Smith’s ranking In the pre draft process.  Yet now that he’s actually on the roster, I’m pretty excited about this pick. The injury history is still a little murky as I haven’t found any information on exactly what happened to him in 2016 and 2020 other than he sat out due to “undisclosed injuries”, but with the Bengals medical staff usually trending pretty conservative I’m not too worried about it.  Smith has a lean frame with room to bulk up. With his weight Reportedly already up to 305, concerns about his body are starting to melt away. With 35” arms he’s the kind of high upside prospect they need on this roster. 

Round 5: Evan McPherson, K Florida

I don’t get the people complaining about the kicker pick. Day 1 or day 2 I can see being annoyed. Day 3? Let’s calm down.  It’s a definite need and having a reliable kicker is important. Think about how deflating it is for the offense to start to build some momentum and then the kicker can’t make a 50 yard field and the defense has to start out defending from the 40. They found a guy they liked and pulled the trigger with a mid day 3 pick. That’s fine. 

Round 6a: Trey Hill, C Georgia 

They go for interior O line here. It’s nice to have a backup plan behind the injured starter coming off a torn ACL and Billy Price who hasn’t inspired any optimism thinking of him as the potential starting center heading into the year. Again I wonder if they could’ve rejiggered their priorities and netted a better prospect 60 picks earlier, but he’s a big strong competent SEC blocker. He doesn’t jump off the screen as much more than solid, but there’s something to be said for stocking your bench with these types of guys and seeing if they can turn into something.

Round 6b: Chris Evans, RB Michigan

The Bengals opt to try to fill the Giovanni Bernard sized hole in their roster with their lone compensatory pick. Evans was a significant contributor at Michigan before getting kicked off the team for academic reasons. It’s hard to say whether the puffed up stories of Evans working hard to get reinstated back to the team are the true sign of character they’ve been made out to be but one way or another he made it back albeit in a minor role. He showcased his receiving potential in the Senior Bowl and was a nice fit for Cincinnati late in day 3. They get a competent upside prospect with the exact skill set they were missing without spending much to do it.

Round 7: Wyatt Hubert, DE Northwestern

The Bengals round out the draft class with yet another lineman. I get the sense they weren’t dead set on any position here. They just liked the value. The front office used to have a soft spot for freakishly tall DE’s with some girth but just enough athleticism to pass rush. Under Zac Taylor it has shifted to mid sized versatile high motor types with just enough mass to hold up in run D. The defensive line depth chart is going to be tough to crack, but I like the chances of a guy with the wherewithal to study special teams in college because he recognized it as his best chance to go pro. Already out for the year, we’ll see if he can crack the roster in 2022.

Overall this is a solid draft class. I would have preferred higher rated OL talent, but the front office just may have done what they needed to do. I’d say this is a B level draft with obvious opportunities for that score to jump if a few of these guys pop. 

2021 NFL Draft: Day 2 Delight

It was an exciting round 1.  I'll react to that more later, but here's a look at the talent left on the board with day 2 looming. With only five offensive lineman off the board, it couldn't have worked out much better for everyone in Cincinnati crossing fingers for their team to add some blocking talent at pick 38.

With first round-projected talents like Moehrig, Elijah Moore, Owusu-Koramoah, and Ojulari still on the board, the Bengals will almost certainly get a shot at one of the top remaining OT's.  

Jenkins and Mayfield are my favorite fits with Eichenberg as a pretty solid consolation prize. Jenkins seems like too much to hope for, but it's in play at this point.  

Here are names of players in consideration on day 2.  Not all are in play for the Bengals specifically, but hopefully it at least provides a feel for what the landscape looks like heading into their third round pick.  I'd like them to double dip on the O-line on the chance that one of the G's falls to the top of round 3 or maybe snag a developmental OT to push the existing talent on the roster.  DT or edge might be more realistic though.       

OT:

Teven Jenkins, Oklahoma St. - Mauling RT, can play guard.  Wears goggles.. I don't know what it is.  There's something awesome about that.  

Jalen Mayfield, Michigan - 6'5" 319 lbs. RT,  Punishing run blocker that slides to the second level to smash defenders with ease.  Pass blocking needs development.  

Liam Eichenberg, Notre Dame - 6'6" nimble LT.  Needs to add a little bulk, but plays with surprising strength.  

Dillon Radunz, North Dakota St. -  Solid all around.  Needs to bulk up a little, but plays with a mean streak.  Might not be as day 1 ready as the three listed above.  

Walker Little, Stanford - Hasn't played in a while due to injury and COVID opt outs, but was considered a top prospect when he did. 

Sam Cosmi, Texas - Tall and lean. I'd prefer Cincy look elsewher, but he's regarded as a round 2 prospect.  Solid against big 12 rushers, but seems to sacrifice technique to compensate for weird angles caused by height and strength deficiencies.

Jackson Carman - Clemson - Huge 345 LT that doesn't quite play up to his size.  

IOL:

Creed Humphrey, Oklahoma - He's been on the fringe end round 1, early round 2 radar for two years running.  

Wyatt Davis, Ohio St. - Rock solid G that anchored OSU's always solid O-line.  

Landon Dickerson, Alabama - Highly regarded blocker with high character.  Injuries might be the only thing that dropped him out of the first round.  

LB: 

Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, Notre Dame   - LB/S hybrid often projected to go in mid round 1

Baron Brown, Ohio State - Athletic weak side linebacker, effective in zone coverage

Cameron McGrone, Michigan - 

Jabril Cox, LSU - 

Nick Bolton, Missouri -

Edge:

Azeez Ojulari, Georgia - Long lean edge/OLB with a knack for coming screaming around the corner

Joseph Ossai, Texas - 

Carlos Basham Jr., Wake Forest 

WR:

Terrace Marshall, LSU - 6'3" one of the few tall outside WR prospects in this class. Does everything well.  Ran sub 4.4 at his pro day.  Doesn't always play with fire.  Has medical flags.

Dyami Brown, North Carolina - 6'1" Mostly used to threaten deep with just enough rout running prowess to keep DB's honest.  Strong WR2 prospect.

Dwayne Eskridge, Western Michigan - Short but can play outside. 4.3 speed.   If we're picking 5'9" WR, I'd take him over Elijah Moore in a heartbeat.    

Rondale Moore, Purdue - 5'7" with herculean strength.  Operates mostly in short range, but can wreak havoc.  

Amon-Ra St. Brown, USC - Smooth routs.  Reliable hands.  WR2 ceiling.  

Elijah Moore, Mississippi - 5'9"  Not my favorite, but plenty of people love him as the fourth best WR in this class. 

S:

 Trevon Moehrig, TCU - Ball hawking safety that flies all over the field.  Routinely mocked in the mid to late first round.  

Jevon Holland, S - Oregon - 

DT:

Levi Onwuzurike, Washington - 

Christian Barmore, Alabama - Started the year slow, but looked unblockable in the college football playoff.

Milton Williams, Louisianna Tech - Athletic undersized DT

RB:

Javonte Williams, North Carolina   - Considered by some to be RB1 in this class. 

CB: 

Assante Samuel Jr., Florida St. 

Ifeatu Melifonwu, Indianna

TE: 

Pat Freiermuth, Penn St.

2021 NFL Mock Draft

1. Jacksonville 

No suspense here. Lawrence isn’t going to dominate the league, but he’ll step in and make the Jaguars instantly relevant in the race for the AFC South title.

The pick: Trevor Lawrence, QB Clemson

2. New York Jets

Volatile playing style with a big personality in the biggest of markets. Either we’re going to see a beautiful fireworks show or an explosion that will leave a crater in the earth.

The pick: Zach Wilson, QB BYU

3.San Francisco 

Most of the information pros still have Mac Jones pegged as Kyle Shanahan’s guy, but I trust what I see.  I’m going Mac-less  in this mock draft out of protest. The 49ers compromise here and opt for the prospect with the sky as his limit rather than the guy with a pole barn ceiling.

The pick: Trey Lance, QB North Dakota State

4. Atlanta 

The chance to draft an ubertalented hometown kid and completely align the franchise trajectory with their new GM, new hot shot offensive coach, and a new QB all starting out together would be too much for me to pass up.  That said taking a 6’5 245 lbs. TE with the wingspan of a pterodactyl that runs a 4.44 40 and tortures defenders of all shapes and sizes they aren’t exactly settling.

The pick: Kyle Pitts, TE Florida

5. Cincinnati 

Team Chase and team Sewell have battled relentlessly amongst a divided Cincinnati fan base. It all boils down to finding the better strategy for supporting Joe Burrow. Elite receiver prospect plus an O-lineman at 38 or an elite OT prospect and a receiver later.  The debate falls apart for me with the evaluation of Sewell. 

Sewell is a great prospect with high-end athleticism.  I wouldn’t be shattered if they took him with the idea of molding him into a star player. But a generational  talent with Jonathan Ogden comparisons? Let’s calm down. Where’s the hulking strength people always reference?  He gets modest push run blocking and often gets walked back in the pocket trying to pass block. He usually stays in front of the guy that’s rushing but what happens when the defenders coming at him are bigger, stronger, and have pass rush moves? 

He’s been training full time for a year and his technique will develop. Some of the flaws from 2019 game footage should be moot, but SHOULD is a far cry from generational in my book. From what I see he blocks people. He doesn’t dominate them. His blocks aren’t sticky. He reminds me of Tristan Wirfs from last year, but not quite as light on his feet. That might actually be an argument FOR team Sewell given the rave reviews for Wirfs in his rookie campaign, but let’s give that one a little more time before I concede defeat. 

Is Chase as the alternative a slam dunk? Well, no. It’s almost similar to my Sewell complaints where the Julio Jones comps are a little rich. Chase isn’t quite as clean of a prospect as Jones, but the gap is a little narrower there for me than with Sewell next to the hallowed OT names of the past. Both players require some projection but I give Chase the edge.

At 38 that edge gets wider. Some would argue the opposite, but even if 6 or 7 O-lineman go in round 1, I’m still confident in the options they’ll have when they are back on the clock finally. With a little luck, everyone will bank on this year’s O-line depth and opt to snap up the defensive front seven talent first leaving an embarrassment of riches to choose from in round 2.  If it doesn’t work out in round 2, move on to round 3.. and/or 4 and/or 5 and/or 6 and/or 7.  Seriously. Team Sewell always goes back to the scar on Burrow’s knee and the need to protect him. Why not have both?  Take the elite receiving target at 5 then slam the O-line depth issue in the trash can by picking O-linemen with four or five of the next six picks? Two of them will hit and we’re ready to rock. People complain about having other needs..another DT, an edge, defense, defense, defense, RB, kicker. Forget defense!.. for now anyway. It’s not like they’re contending for the Super Bowl this year.  6’5”+ 310+ lbs. men grow on trees in this class. Go get them! Tevin Jenkins (probably won’t fall), Jalen Mayfield (if he falls he might get sniped in the early 30’s), Liam Eichenberg, Dillon Radunz, Walker Little, Brady Christensen, Josh Ball, Jaylon Moore, Tommy Doyle, Alaric Jackson, Robert Hainsey, Carson Green, Spencer Brown... these guys are going to be strewn out over all three days of the draft and that’s OT’s that I like leaving out pure guards, centers, and OT’s that I’m lower on than consensus that might have merit in their own right (Darrisaw, Cosmi, Leatherwood, Carman, Hudson and on and on). 

Start talking outside receiver prospects and it feels a lot more limited especially if you narrow it down to guys 6’ and up. Bateman should be gone. Dyami Brown could work but it feels a little rich at 38 and he’ll be gone before round 3. You’d have to make a trade to thread the needle and eahh.. it’s too hard to gamble on that. Terrace Marshall would leave me feeling a little deflated. He’s like poor man’s Chase without the edge to his game and a little more medical risk. Cade Johnson or Ihmir Smith-Marsette in round 3 or later feels like it would work. Dwayne Eskridge warrants a look if you want to dip into the 5’9” guys that can play outside. Dez Fitzpatrick or Frank Darby on day 3 maybe could work. There are other options of depth guys they could add but they would mostly involve leaving Auden Tate as the WR3 for the next year or two. I like the guy but I’m not sure that’s going to get them where they want to go. Overall, opting to fill the receiver need early just gives them more flexibility to fill out this draft class and progress forward.

If they settle on a pass catcher the next question becomes.. okay, why not just take Pitts? It’s a valid discussion to have.  Pitts becoming an elite player is a little cleaner projection than Chase but not enough to force their hand.  The tiebreaker for me is the already established connection between Burrow and Chase. It’s probably inconsequential. Pitts and Burrow likely would quickly establish their own connection, but the variable of dropping players into a new environment in a new system is an underrated factor for all personnel moves. It’s why projecting prospect performance is hard. It’s why relying on free agency additions can be dicey. With Burrow and Chase we’ve already seen it. They know how to work and grow together. They’ll hit the ground running and keep going until they get as far as they can possibly go together.

The pick: Ja’Marr Chase, WR LSU

6. Miami - TRADE to Carolina

Dolphins recoup a little capital to move back for their receiver.  Panthers pay a small price to guarantee one of the top two tackles.

The pick: Penei Sewell, OT Oregon

7. Detroit  - TRADE to Denver

Word is Fields will fall past this but hopefully Denver does the right thing and doesn’t worry about having acquired Teddy Bridgewater. 

The pick: Justin Fields, QB Ohio State

8. Carolina - TRADE to Miami

Some think the Dolphins are targeting Waddle if they can’t get Pitts or Chase. Something about DeVonta Smith feels like he fits with Brian Flores.

The pick: DeVonta Smith, WR Alabama

9. Denver - TRADE to Detroit 

The Lions snag an extra pick and take the first defender right before Dallas was about to do it.

The pick: Patrick Surtain II, Alabama 

10. Dallas 

O-line was their identity not too long ago. With Surtain gone the Cowboys seek to repair their aging line.

The pick: Rashawn Slater, OT Northwestern

11. New York Giants

An OT that can start at guard makes a lot of sense here, but hard-nosed defense will be their calling card. Joe Horn’s son is a tough press corner that can help them with that.

The pick: Jaycee Horn, CB South Carolina

12. Philadelphia 

Smith might compliment their current roster better, but Waddle will do. He is kind of a rich man’s version of Jalen Reagor. That should give them a lot of play calling versatility.

The pick: Jaylen Waddle, WR Alabama 

13. L.A. Chargers

I like the idea I heard of the Chargers trading up if Sewell slips a little, but they settle for a guy that played well at both guard and OT in college.

The pick: Alijah Vera-Tucker, USC

14. Minnesota

Rousseau isn’t getting hype this high but with the Vikings looking to add edge talent he’ll surely be in consideration. A few names push higher than expected every year.  Rousseau will be that guy in 2021.

The pick: Gregory Rousseau, DE Miami

15. New England

Everyone has quarterback on the brain, but I’ve already declared this part of the internet as a Mac free zone. Go hang out on day two Mac. Bellichick might still grab you there. The Patriots get more athletic in the middle of their defense here.

The pick: Micah Parsons, LB Penn St.

16. Arizona 

Outside corner is a sore need. Caleb Farley’s medicals lead the Cardinals to the next man on their list.

The pick: Greg Newsome, CB Northwestern 

17. Las Vegas

Another intriguing idea I heard leading up to the draft: Are the Raiders a trade up candidate if Justin Fields falls? They opt for a versatile hybrid defender here.

The pick: Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, LB Notre Dame

18. Miami

Old school linebacker body, new school linebacker athleticism. I’m surprised Bellichick didn’t grab him, but If he doesn’t, Flores will.

The pick: Zaven Collins, LB Tulsa

19. Washington 

People have Darrisaw ranked higher than this. He’s a big barrel-chested tackle that looks a little top heavy and heavy footed  to me. Still Washington snags a reputable prospect to fill their biggest need.

The Pick: Christian Darrisaw, OT Virginia Tech

20. Chicago

The Bears struck out getting appreciable WR help in free agency. Bateman is a draft media darling. If he can rekindle what he showed in 2019 the Bears might have a gem.

The pick: Rashod Bateman, WR Minnesota

21. Indianapolis 

A hard-nosed tackle that will fit right in on Indy’s line that is looking to fill some holes.. And he and Rodrigo Blankenship can go shopping for goggles together.

The pick: Teven Jenkins, OT Oklahoma State

22. Tennessee 

Phillips returned to college football after considering walking away due to injuries. He lit up 2020 and might be the best pass rusher in the class. 

The pick: Jaelan Phillips, DE Miami 

23. New York Jets 

Paye’s versatility and athleticism will attract a team determined to turn their D-line into a strength. The Jets just can’t stop pouring resources into defensive line.

The pick: Kwity Paye, DE Michigan

24. Pittsburgh 

RB is all the rage to mock here, but instead they choose to replace their retired center.

The pick: Creed Humphrey, C Oklahoma

25. Jacksonville 

Ball hawking safety that flies all over the field. Jacksonville keeps adding solid players.

The pick: Trevon Moehrig, S 

26. Cleveland 

Ojulari has a lean frame that can add bulk. If he maintains his athleticism, watch out.

The pick: Azeez Ojulari, DE Georgia

27. Baltimore 

Not a lot of buzz for Mayfield, but Baltimore finds their RT replacement. Cross your fingers he falls to 38!

The pick: Jalen Mayfield, OT Michigan

28. New Orleans 

Toney isn’t getting enough buzz for the juice he can add to an offense. Sean Payton will know what to do with him.

The pick: Kadarious Toney, WR Florida

29. Green Bay

The packers are the first team willing to take a risk on a guy that probably would go top 15 if not for back issues. Tall, fast, and technically he’s been medically cleared for next year.

The pick: Caleb Farley, CB Virginia Tech

30. Buffalo

Buffalo needs more athleticism up front on defense. Oweh posted workout numbers that are off the charts.

The pick: Jason Oweh, DE Penn St.

31. Baltimore 

Off the radar edge rusher. He doesn’t look like much of a drop off in talent from the guys taken earlier.

The pick: Payton Turner, DE Houston 

32. Tampa Bay

Bringing all of their starters back Tampa Bay resumes the crusade to draft a decent round 1 corner.

The pick: Eric Stokes, CB Georgia 

There you have it. No DT’s, no RB’s, no G’s, and no Mac’s! Should be a fun night. Enjoy!

NFL Draft 2021: Wide Receiver World

Once the dust settles from the QB frenzy, the Bengals should be sitting pretty at five ready to take the first or second  non quarterback off the board. The Chase vs. Sewell debate is raging throughout the fan base as everyone tries to weigh the best draft strategy based on team needs. OT, WR, G? WR, OT, G? Throw a DT or DE in there?  Here's a list of WR prospects to keep an eye out for throughout the draft wherever Cincy decides to take a receiver. 

Applications Pending for Superstar Club

1. Ja'Marr Chase, LSU

Not the biggest or the fastest, but he's a 6'1" ball of muscle that chews up a CB's cushion like it's candy and then tortures the defender trying to cover him with his strength.  If he gets downfield in man coverage, forget about it.  Facing press coverage, he's a little slow getting off the line of scrimmage at times, but he does this thing where he locks arms with the DB and then rag dolls the defender and accelerates down the field in a flash to wreak havoc on the defense that just had it's flank dismantled. He was a 2020 opt out.  In general, players that take a year off scare me because they never seem to come back at quite the same level  as when they left.  Another way to look at it: as a 19 year old sophomore he was a force of nature that played on the same unit as Justin Jefferson. He looked a little raw but Chase was clearly the superior player to Jefferson, a guy who just lit up the league as a rookie.  Now, Chase has been training for a year.. sculpting, grinding, fine tuning.  He was strong.  What if he's stronger now?  He was fast.  What if he's faster now?  He was raw.  What if he's more polished?  He is a ferocious velociraptor that's been caged and kept in the dark for a year.  And now they are letting him out. 

2. DeVonta Smith, Alabama 

Smith is not fluid.  He is fluid in motion.  I love this type of receiver more than almost anything in sports. With out of this world body control, quick burst speed, and top-grade football intelligence he could get open in his sleep.  Once he gets the ball watch out.  He flows through defenses with ease and once he sees a small opening he has that elite extra gear to jet to the edge and turn up field.  He posted one of the greatest WR college football careers of all time and was the first WR to win the Heisman since 1991.  Why is he not considered a surefire top 10 pick?  Age is one concern. Some evaluators hang their hats on age of breakout season and a guy that stayed in school through his senior season that comes into draft day at 22 years old gives them pause.  But the real concern is his weight.  Note, I didn't say size.  At 6'1" with long lanky arms, Smith has all the length he needs, but his skinny frame is where he comes up short.  He has yet to allow himself to be weighed during draft season (or maybe he did finally, I lost track).  Reportedly, he claims he's at 170, but some speculate his playing weight is more like 160.  You do see him get rag dolled a few times in the rare instances when defenders get their hands on him.  It's a concern for sure, but I don't think it will keep him from having a successful career. His movement skills negate the risk.  I’m getting Marvin Harrison vibes.. you know, without the creepy scary off the field buzz.   

Supercharged  WR2 with WR1 Upside:

3. Jaylen Waddle, Alabama

Waddle Was right there with DeVonta Smith as 1a, 1b targets for Alabama this year before an ankle injury more or less ended his season.  Electric speed to go with smooth rout running, Waddle burning DB's on double moves was a thing of beauty. He isn’t a big guy, but oddly he doesn’t get dinged for his size as much as Smith.  Pair him with an intermediate target hog and it could be the start of a beautiful relationship.

End of Day 1 Watch List:

4. Kadarius Toney, Florida

Electric feet. Smaller WR that carries a surprising amount of pop.  Sometimes sacrifices a little too much play speed to set up his cuts. It feels like draft analysts are selling him a little short. They think he’s undisciplined and freelances too much. They question why he didn’t produce significantly until his senior season. Fine.  If you want a polished technician look elsewhere, but last time I checked players that are dynamic with the ball in their hands were still a hot commodity.

5. Rashod Bateman, Minnesota 

Draft media darling.  He's everybody's favorite to go in the mid to late first round and take the league by storm.  I'm not quite sure what I'm looking at with Bateman.  The way he bursts off the line of scrimmage and flashes game breaking run after catch ability, he looks like he has WR1 potential.  Yet he just can't seem to execute like he's on that level.  I'm not sure if his QB is holding him back, his coaches, or if it's just him. It sounds like there’s some weird COVID, partial season, coaches decided to use him differently stuff going on here.  Most people say to throw out 2020 and focus on 2019 tape to see what he really can do. I think it's likely he'll be a WR2/3 that teases us now and then with higher end production.  In the right situation though, someone might be able to harness his potential into monster value. I’d be afraid to let him slip out of the first round.

6. Terrace Marshall Jr., LSU

B+ all around: Size, speed, quickness, rout running in short, deep, red zone areas. There  has been some talk he wasn’t all in on a weird 2020 season where LSU’s roster was decimated by the draft and COVID opt outs. It doesn’t scare me away but it Nudges him into day 2.  I don't know of any specific injuries in his past, but reportedly he has some serious medical red flags.  

Day 2 Darlings:

7. D'Wayne Eskridge, Western Michigan       

This feels like the year of the 5'9" jitterbugs.  Blistering speed.  Return weapon that can threaten the field as a short and deep receiver.  Eskridge separates himself a little from the other mighty mites in this class with his ability to make plays lining up inside and outside and he can go up and get a ball if he has to. Okay hands, but limited catch radius. 

8. Rondale Moore, Purdue

Probably too small to be a number 1.  Operates mostly in the short to intermediate range. He hasn’t really been given the opportunity to do otherwise but at 5’7” it’s probably justified. The fact that he has a limited skill set, everyone knows it and he’s still a legit day 1/ day 2 prospect as an offensive weapon speaks to what kind of athlete he is.  He is a fast little ball of power. Just run him back and forth across the field laterally within 5 yards of the line of scrimmage and he can wreak havoc. Injury risk with streaky hands. Probably slips into round 2.

9. Dyami Brown, North Carolina

Not elite, but enough speed and rout running prowess to keep defenses honest as the second or third option in an offense. 

Day 3 Hype with Day 2 Talent:

10. Cade Johnson, South Dakota St.

Smooth off the line of scrimmage.  Gets off press coverage when he has to.  Capable of threatening deep even when given a cushion. Good hands.  We'll see how he handles the jump in competition, but he looked good at Senior Bowl practices from what I saw.

11. Ihmir Smith-Marsette, Iowa 

Kind of gets lost in Iowa's smorgasboard offense.  Not electric with the ball in his hands, but he’s solid enough and has return skills. He gets open and should be a reliable slot receiver in the league with some outside versatility.

WR Depth with WR2 Upside:

12. Amari Rodgers, Clemson  

Another 5’9” guy but  he plays bigger than he measures. Not a burner, but has enough speed to make plays downfield.  Crisp fluid routs but sometimes slows down a little.  Solid playmaker with the ball in his hands.  He’s not going to be a constant threat to break for a monster gain, but he usually makes one man miss and consistently breaks tackles. Think of him more as a guy that turns a two yard gain into a 12 yard gain regularly.

13. Amon-Ra St. Brown, USC      

Probably won't ever be a primary weapon but solid all around. Smooth in cuts and vacuum cleaner hands make him a reliable target in the short to intermediate range.  Not a deep threat.  

14. Tylan Wallace, Oklahoma State

Mid sized contested catch receiver.  Excels at out leaping defenders.  College fast.  Modest RAC ability.  

15. Dez Fitzpatrick, Louisville   

Fitzpatrick got a bit lost in Louisville's offensive scheme, but he looks like an NFL wide receiver to me.  He has size.  He can threaten downfield when he needs to.  He can challenge for contested catches.  He can get open on short to intermediate routs.  He can makes plays after the catch.  Let people ignore him as an older prospect without a ton of production.   That was Louisville's fault.  Draft him on day three and reap the benefits.  With a little luck, you end up with a capable WR2 for next to nothing.  The Senior Bowl practice footage is the only thing keeping me from really going out on a limb and bumping him up. He looked like he was having a little trouble separating there.

16. Elijah Moore, Mississippi 

I have to put in a disclaimer here. I am about ten slots lower on Moore than most people.  He’s a speedy 5’9” receiver with good hands and production all over the field.  I just don’t think his college production is going to translate. He made a lot of big plays, but I didn’t get  the feeling he was doing the heavy lifting most of the time. When I saw him catch the ball I felt either the defense cracked and he was going to capitalize or he was going to get tackled. He doesn’t look like he plays as fast as his 40 time.   He oversells most of his cuts with this weird exaggerated head fake that is going to be a tell more than anything against better defenders.

Moore is in the back of this tier for me of WR3/4’s with WR2 upside and all of the guys ahead of him have one skill that sets them apart. Fitzpatrick it’s size and physicality. Wallace it’s contested catch ability. St. Brown it’s smooth polished rout running. Rodgers it’s toughness after the catch. With Moore, the Steve Smith comp is way rich. To be top 40 WR pick, I’m hoping for at least a little WR 1 upside and I don’t see it.

17. Frank Darby, Arizona St.

 Has some fire in his belly.  Muscular physical receiver. I would have guessed he was 2" taller and 25 lbs. heavier than he's listed. He fights for the ball and wins. His RPMS rev up there, but he doesn't seem to have an extra gear. Time will tell if his athleticism is enough to hit WR2 territory.

Day 3 Dudes with a Glimmer of Hope:

18. Marlon Williams, Central Florida

Totally bizarre watching Williams. At  6'0" 222 lbs. he looks like a linebacker lining up, but he moves like a receiver.  Good fluid routs.  Doesn't have blazing speed, but moves well enough to make a living at the next level. Adds value as an extra blocker lined up wide.  More than once I saw a play flow to the side where Williams was out in a rout.  The safety came flying in trying to rally to the ball and Williams steps in and stops him in his tracks.  This guy has special teams ace written all over him.    

19. Sage Surratt, Wake Forest

Looked like a lean smooth rout runner with speed in game footage, but pre-draft workouts have told a different story including a slow 40 time in the 4.6's. It was startling how he looked in Senior Bowl 1:1's-  Rigid, couldn't fight off press coverage.

20. Whop Philyor, Indiana

Return man that can be a WR4 in an offense.  Gets open, but needs space to create after the catch.

21. Cornell Powell, Clemson

Frame looks bigger than he is.. Listed at 6', I would have guessed 6'4" watching him.  Slow acceleration off the snap.  Sluggish rout running on short to intermediate routs.   Flashes long speed on deep routs when he can really open up the governor.  Excellent at contested catches.  He has mastered the slight push off: too subtle to draw a flag, but just enough to create space for the catch. 

22. Tamorrion Terry, Florida State

Twilight zone prospect.  I'm not sure whether he actually exists.  Tantalizing size and athleticism combination.  Flashed as a big play threat catching the ball short and deep.. Yet a website I trust ranks over 300 prospects and he isn't even listed.  Did something happen to where he's not eligible?  He's listed on other sites.  It's weird.  He showed enough in previous seasons that he warrants a pick in the late rounds.  He's not particularly disciplined or refined.  There's a huge range of outcomes for his career.  I would believe hearing he was out of the league within a year or that he leveraged his big play ability into a monster second contract as a top weapon of a team. 

23. Simi Fehoko, Stanford

Big frame with speed.  He uses his body well at times but needs to be a little more fluid on his routs.  A little rigid.  Doesn't have natural ball skills. Could develop. 

24. Seth Williams, Auburn

Big frame possession receivers feel like a dinosaur-aged commodity that have become more scarce each year but NFL rosters still need these types of guys. Williams isn't as tall as he looks, but 6'2" in this class feels giant.  He'll present a big target for somebody and he can move a little bit to go with it.  I expect he'll go day three or UDFA and stick on somebody's roster for a little while anyway.   

7th Round Flyers:

25. Dazz Newsome, North Carolina

Mid sized receiver that mostly lines up in the slot.  Operates mostly in short range.  He has the ability to elude tackles, but won't threaten the defense too much.

26. Chatarius Atwell, Louisville

Short, light and speedy.  He doesn't make a ton of plays in the short game despite his skill set. He can threaten downfield, but his size really limits his versatility as a target. 

27. Nico Collins, Michigan

Something wasn't right with that Michigan offense.  He might be better than he looks.  Has ability to cut and get open, but often lacks crispness in his routs. 

 28. Demetric Felton, UCLA 

Lined up mostly at RB.  Fluid with the ball and without.  Not enough power or elusiveness to be a consistent weapon. 

29. Jonathan Adams Jr., Arkansas St.

Confusing watch. Within small school competition, he looks physically dominant, but he doesn't blow anyone away with speed. Bullies his way into high pointing catches and struggles to make contested catches… within the course of a single game.  Some of it is his quarterback, but some of it isn't.  Plays with an edge that he doesn't always seem to actually have.  

30. Jaelon Darden, North Texas

Deep speed, not going to catch every ball.  Potent in the open field against lower competition. 

31. Marquez Stevenson, Houston

A lot of guys on this list measure small, but look bigger. Stevenson is the opposite.  I was sure he was 5'9" watching him, but he's actually closer to 6'.  He's another speed slot man return guy.  The market on these guys is going to be flooded.  It feels like there are 50 of them in this year's class alone.  

32. Anthony Schwartz, Auburn

A bit of a hybrid.  Not short and shifty but he posted a blazing sub 4.3 40 time.  Not big and powerful, but has some height.  Flashes some twitch and rout running prowess, but ultimately isn't consistent enough catching the ball or making plays. 

UDFA Targets

33. Austin Watkins, UAB

To be fair to Watkins, I didn't find much on him other than clips of him running free into a soft zone defenses.  Watkins has decent size, but seems to only have one speed (and not a particularly fast one). 

34. Trevon Grimes, Florida

Big body receiver.  Flashes movement scales every now and then, but not enough to make me curious. 

35. Dax Milne, BYU

Not too big, not too fast, not too elusive.  I'm not sure he sticks on a roster for very long. 

36. Josh Imatorbhebhe, Illinois

When you can't find much full game footage and have to resort to watching highlight reels and you're still left shrugging your shoulders, the guy probably isn't going to make it in the league.  Boxes out well with his big body, but just doesn't have enough athleticism.