2021 NFL Mock Draft

1. Jacksonville 

No suspense here. Lawrence isn’t going to dominate the league, but he’ll step in and make the Jaguars instantly relevant in the race for the AFC South title.

The pick: Trevor Lawrence, QB Clemson

2. New York Jets

Volatile playing style with a big personality in the biggest of markets. Either we’re going to see a beautiful fireworks show or an explosion that will leave a crater in the earth.

The pick: Zach Wilson, QB BYU

3.San Francisco 

Most of the information pros still have Mac Jones pegged as Kyle Shanahan’s guy, but I trust what I see.  I’m going Mac-less  in this mock draft out of protest. The 49ers compromise here and opt for the prospect with the sky as his limit rather than the guy with a pole barn ceiling.

The pick: Trey Lance, QB North Dakota State

4. Atlanta 

The chance to draft an ubertalented hometown kid and completely align the franchise trajectory with their new GM, new hot shot offensive coach, and a new QB all starting out together would be too much for me to pass up.  That said taking a 6’5 245 lbs. TE with the wingspan of a pterodactyl that runs a 4.44 40 and tortures defenders of all shapes and sizes they aren’t exactly settling.

The pick: Kyle Pitts, TE Florida

5. Cincinnati 

Team Chase and team Sewell have battled relentlessly amongst a divided Cincinnati fan base. It all boils down to finding the better strategy for supporting Joe Burrow. Elite receiver prospect plus an O-lineman at 38 or an elite OT prospect and a receiver later.  The debate falls apart for me with the evaluation of Sewell. 

Sewell is a great prospect with high-end athleticism.  I wouldn’t be shattered if they took him with the idea of molding him into a star player. But a generational  talent with Jonathan Ogden comparisons? Let’s calm down. Where’s the hulking strength people always reference?  He gets modest push run blocking and often gets walked back in the pocket trying to pass block. He usually stays in front of the guy that’s rushing but what happens when the defenders coming at him are bigger, stronger, and have pass rush moves? 

He’s been training full time for a year and his technique will develop. Some of the flaws from 2019 game footage should be moot, but SHOULD is a far cry from generational in my book. From what I see he blocks people. He doesn’t dominate them. His blocks aren’t sticky. He reminds me of Tristan Wirfs from last year, but not quite as light on his feet. That might actually be an argument FOR team Sewell given the rave reviews for Wirfs in his rookie campaign, but let’s give that one a little more time before I concede defeat. 

Is Chase as the alternative a slam dunk? Well, no. It’s almost similar to my Sewell complaints where the Julio Jones comps are a little rich. Chase isn’t quite as clean of a prospect as Jones, but the gap is a little narrower there for me than with Sewell next to the hallowed OT names of the past. Both players require some projection but I give Chase the edge.

At 38 that edge gets wider. Some would argue the opposite, but even if 6 or 7 O-lineman go in round 1, I’m still confident in the options they’ll have when they are back on the clock finally. With a little luck, everyone will bank on this year’s O-line depth and opt to snap up the defensive front seven talent first leaving an embarrassment of riches to choose from in round 2.  If it doesn’t work out in round 2, move on to round 3.. and/or 4 and/or 5 and/or 6 and/or 7.  Seriously. Team Sewell always goes back to the scar on Burrow’s knee and the need to protect him. Why not have both?  Take the elite receiving target at 5 then slam the O-line depth issue in the trash can by picking O-linemen with four or five of the next six picks? Two of them will hit and we’re ready to rock. People complain about having other needs..another DT, an edge, defense, defense, defense, RB, kicker. Forget defense!.. for now anyway. It’s not like they’re contending for the Super Bowl this year.  6’5”+ 310+ lbs. men grow on trees in this class. Go get them! Tevin Jenkins (probably won’t fall), Jalen Mayfield (if he falls he might get sniped in the early 30’s), Liam Eichenberg, Dillon Radunz, Walker Little, Brady Christensen, Josh Ball, Jaylon Moore, Tommy Doyle, Alaric Jackson, Robert Hainsey, Carson Green, Spencer Brown... these guys are going to be strewn out over all three days of the draft and that’s OT’s that I like leaving out pure guards, centers, and OT’s that I’m lower on than consensus that might have merit in their own right (Darrisaw, Cosmi, Leatherwood, Carman, Hudson and on and on). 

Start talking outside receiver prospects and it feels a lot more limited especially if you narrow it down to guys 6’ and up. Bateman should be gone. Dyami Brown could work but it feels a little rich at 38 and he’ll be gone before round 3. You’d have to make a trade to thread the needle and eahh.. it’s too hard to gamble on that. Terrace Marshall would leave me feeling a little deflated. He’s like poor man’s Chase without the edge to his game and a little more medical risk. Cade Johnson or Ihmir Smith-Marsette in round 3 or later feels like it would work. Dwayne Eskridge warrants a look if you want to dip into the 5’9” guys that can play outside. Dez Fitzpatrick or Frank Darby on day 3 maybe could work. There are other options of depth guys they could add but they would mostly involve leaving Auden Tate as the WR3 for the next year or two. I like the guy but I’m not sure that’s going to get them where they want to go. Overall, opting to fill the receiver need early just gives them more flexibility to fill out this draft class and progress forward.

If they settle on a pass catcher the next question becomes.. okay, why not just take Pitts? It’s a valid discussion to have.  Pitts becoming an elite player is a little cleaner projection than Chase but not enough to force their hand.  The tiebreaker for me is the already established connection between Burrow and Chase. It’s probably inconsequential. Pitts and Burrow likely would quickly establish their own connection, but the variable of dropping players into a new environment in a new system is an underrated factor for all personnel moves. It’s why projecting prospect performance is hard. It’s why relying on free agency additions can be dicey. With Burrow and Chase we’ve already seen it. They know how to work and grow together. They’ll hit the ground running and keep going until they get as far as they can possibly go together.

The pick: Ja’Marr Chase, WR LSU

6. Miami - TRADE to Carolina

Dolphins recoup a little capital to move back for their receiver.  Panthers pay a small price to guarantee one of the top two tackles.

The pick: Penei Sewell, OT Oregon

7. Detroit  - TRADE to Denver

Word is Fields will fall past this but hopefully Denver does the right thing and doesn’t worry about having acquired Teddy Bridgewater. 

The pick: Justin Fields, QB Ohio State

8. Carolina - TRADE to Miami

Some think the Dolphins are targeting Waddle if they can’t get Pitts or Chase. Something about DeVonta Smith feels like he fits with Brian Flores.

The pick: DeVonta Smith, WR Alabama

9. Denver - TRADE to Detroit 

The Lions snag an extra pick and take the first defender right before Dallas was about to do it.

The pick: Patrick Surtain II, Alabama 

10. Dallas 

O-line was their identity not too long ago. With Surtain gone the Cowboys seek to repair their aging line.

The pick: Rashawn Slater, OT Northwestern

11. New York Giants

An OT that can start at guard makes a lot of sense here, but hard-nosed defense will be their calling card. Joe Horn’s son is a tough press corner that can help them with that.

The pick: Jaycee Horn, CB South Carolina

12. Philadelphia 

Smith might compliment their current roster better, but Waddle will do. He is kind of a rich man’s version of Jalen Reagor. That should give them a lot of play calling versatility.

The pick: Jaylen Waddle, WR Alabama 

13. L.A. Chargers

I like the idea I heard of the Chargers trading up if Sewell slips a little, but they settle for a guy that played well at both guard and OT in college.

The pick: Alijah Vera-Tucker, USC

14. Minnesota

Rousseau isn’t getting hype this high but with the Vikings looking to add edge talent he’ll surely be in consideration. A few names push higher than expected every year.  Rousseau will be that guy in 2021.

The pick: Gregory Rousseau, DE Miami

15. New England

Everyone has quarterback on the brain, but I’ve already declared this part of the internet as a Mac free zone. Go hang out on day two Mac. Bellichick might still grab you there. The Patriots get more athletic in the middle of their defense here.

The pick: Micah Parsons, LB Penn St.

16. Arizona 

Outside corner is a sore need. Caleb Farley’s medicals lead the Cardinals to the next man on their list.

The pick: Greg Newsome, CB Northwestern 

17. Las Vegas

Another intriguing idea I heard leading up to the draft: Are the Raiders a trade up candidate if Justin Fields falls? They opt for a versatile hybrid defender here.

The pick: Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, LB Notre Dame

18. Miami

Old school linebacker body, new school linebacker athleticism. I’m surprised Bellichick didn’t grab him, but If he doesn’t, Flores will.

The pick: Zaven Collins, LB Tulsa

19. Washington 

People have Darrisaw ranked higher than this. He’s a big barrel-chested tackle that looks a little top heavy and heavy footed  to me. Still Washington snags a reputable prospect to fill their biggest need.

The Pick: Christian Darrisaw, OT Virginia Tech

20. Chicago

The Bears struck out getting appreciable WR help in free agency. Bateman is a draft media darling. If he can rekindle what he showed in 2019 the Bears might have a gem.

The pick: Rashod Bateman, WR Minnesota

21. Indianapolis 

A hard-nosed tackle that will fit right in on Indy’s line that is looking to fill some holes.. And he and Rodrigo Blankenship can go shopping for goggles together.

The pick: Teven Jenkins, OT Oklahoma State

22. Tennessee 

Phillips returned to college football after considering walking away due to injuries. He lit up 2020 and might be the best pass rusher in the class. 

The pick: Jaelan Phillips, DE Miami 

23. New York Jets 

Paye’s versatility and athleticism will attract a team determined to turn their D-line into a strength. The Jets just can’t stop pouring resources into defensive line.

The pick: Kwity Paye, DE Michigan

24. Pittsburgh 

RB is all the rage to mock here, but instead they choose to replace their retired center.

The pick: Creed Humphrey, C Oklahoma

25. Jacksonville 

Ball hawking safety that flies all over the field. Jacksonville keeps adding solid players.

The pick: Trevon Moehrig, S 

26. Cleveland 

Ojulari has a lean frame that can add bulk. If he maintains his athleticism, watch out.

The pick: Azeez Ojulari, DE Georgia

27. Baltimore 

Not a lot of buzz for Mayfield, but Baltimore finds their RT replacement. Cross your fingers he falls to 38!

The pick: Jalen Mayfield, OT Michigan

28. New Orleans 

Toney isn’t getting enough buzz for the juice he can add to an offense. Sean Payton will know what to do with him.

The pick: Kadarious Toney, WR Florida

29. Green Bay

The packers are the first team willing to take a risk on a guy that probably would go top 15 if not for back issues. Tall, fast, and technically he’s been medically cleared for next year.

The pick: Caleb Farley, CB Virginia Tech

30. Buffalo

Buffalo needs more athleticism up front on defense. Oweh posted workout numbers that are off the charts.

The pick: Jason Oweh, DE Penn St.

31. Baltimore 

Off the radar edge rusher. He doesn’t look like much of a drop off in talent from the guys taken earlier.

The pick: Payton Turner, DE Houston 

32. Tampa Bay

Bringing all of their starters back Tampa Bay resumes the crusade to draft a decent round 1 corner.

The pick: Eric Stokes, CB Georgia 

There you have it. No DT’s, no RB’s, no G’s, and no Mac’s! Should be a fun night. Enjoy!