Monday, March 14, 2022

One More Second

The most  unexpected biproduct of having your team make the Super Bowl is how disorienting it is to not turn the page on the season until February. It’s free agency time (already!) baby!  


In my previous post I laid out the rallying cry the Bengals offseason:


One more second.


The offense is brimming with potential. They have versatile weapons at every skill position. They have all the ingredients to be an explosive all time offense.. except one. 


The pieces were all in place last season, but the offense ran hot and cold and sputtered down the stretch. We all know what needs to be done. It has been documented over and over. It’s the one tired narrative i can’t really get mad about because it’s actually true. 


One more second.


What can this offense do with one more second to break down and dissect opposing defenses. The entire offseason focus needs to be centered around one more second. 


Does that mean they should dump all of their money into linemen in day 1 of free agency? It’s more complicated than that. Let’s hash through it.


First Step: Free Agency

  1. Terron Armstead, Saints
  2. Duane Brown, Seahawks
  3. Eric Fisher, Colts
  4. Trent Brown, Patriots
  5. Morgan Moses, Jets
  6. Joe Noteboom, Rams
  7. Riley Reiff, Bengals
  8. Brandon Shell, Seahawks
  9. Bobby Massie, 

Here’s the list. It’s in rough order, but you can definitely quibble after.. well,  all of it.


The unquestioned top name, Armstead, will get big money but he has missed at least six games in four of his last six seasons. Duane Brown, number two on the list, will be 37 years old before the season starts. Eric Fisher is Eric fisher. Maybe you get some stability, but you’re stuck with the “Who is going to play on the right side?” quandary. Can anyone outside of New England motivate Trent Brown? If you can keep him healthy and engaged it would feel nice having a mountain blotting out the sun on the right side but can you count on that?Morgan Moses maybe makes the most sense on this list as a right tackle who has been consistently decent and hasn’t missed a game in the last seven years. Still you’re going to have to commit some decent cash to a 31 year old to get him. I don’t really have high hopes for anyone else.  I’d be okay with Reif if he’s healthy but rumor has it he’s considering retirement. They might be better off spending money on IOL and adding two guys at the bottom or off this list. Take a committee into camp and see if anyone serviceable rises to the surface. It’s not ideal and they tend to hesitate on big money at guard, but looks more attractive when you weigh the risk of ponying up for Armstead, one of the Browns, or relying on the draft/development route.


En Guard

  1. Ryan Jensen, Buccaneers
  2. Brandon Scherff, Commanders
  3. Laken Tomlinson, 49ers
  4. James Daniels, Bears
  5. Bradley Boseman, Ravens 
  6. Andrew Norwell, Jaguars
  7. Ben Jones, Titans
  8. Connor Williams, Cowboys
  9. Austin Corbett, Rams
  10. Brian Allen, Rams
  11. Germain Ifedi, Bears
  12. Alex Cappa, Buccaneers
  13. Quinton Spain, Bengals
  14. Mike Glowinski, Colts

The outlook at guard/center is a little brighter. Everyone from Adam Jones to Ian Rapaport have been talking up buzz that Ryan Jensen is heading to Cincinnati, but has the market fermented too much for their taste buds? Brandon Scherff would be exciting, but he won’t be cheap and he has missed at least 5 games in 3 of the last 4 seasons. Jensen, Daniels, and Boseman all offer G/C flexibility. Honestly, I would make it my mission to get two of the top five guys on this list, plus bring back Spain, plus add one more from whatever’s left after the free agency frenzy dust settles. If you fix this line the offense hums. Worry all you want about the need to upgrade at 3 technique DT and CB. You’re underestimating the potential of this offense. If they thread the offense/defense needle again, yes, they can win. But if they fix the o-line and stay clear of the always lurking major injury monsters this offense can checkmate the league. Period. I want Jackson Carman to be plan C not plan B. 


But prepare yourself for the reality of one guy on this list plus Spain and Carman as plan A at RG.  


One More Second?…

As in, maybe there’s a trade coming to acquire one more second round pick?  This could take shape in a variety of forms. Maybe they aren’t able to solve all of their blocking woes in free agency and they need more ammo to solve their problems.  I havent looked at guards yet in this draft class but the OT crop looks to have a pretty big plateau with day 2/day 3 talent.  There are a couple guys set to go day 1 based on potential and a couple more guys that teams will reach for ahead of 31. Chances are if they still need a tackle at the end of April they might as well move back into the second round to get him. This feels scary because they used a similar strategy last year with Jackson Carman and year one was a bust, but maybe adding a pick and taking multiple bites at the apple is the right way to go. 


A more exciting option would be to tap into the rumors that Dallas is exploring trade options for RT L’aell Collins to try to soothe some of their salary cap pain. Collins, under 30 years old with a few years left at a reasonable rate of about $10 million per year, checks a lot of the boxes that typically appeal to Cincy’s decision makers. They’ll struggle to check those boxes with this free agent crop that’s heavy on more expensive or less talented 30+ year olds. Would Dallas bite on swapping their 2nd round pick and Collins for pick 31? It feels simultaneously too good to be true and too pricey (for a guy Dallas sounds like they’ll end up cutting), but it’s not outlandish. After three seasons as a high end RT, Collins lost the 2020 season to a hip injury that eventually required surgery. He came back healthy  in 2021 but lost 5 games to a drug suspension and reportedly played less consistent for the rest of the season.  To complicate matters, the Bengals aren’t the only ones thinking of trying to jump start Collins’ career. If a bidding war ensues, it’s unclear how bold the Bengals would be.  If his former O-line coach, Frank Pollack, vouches for him they might be willing to pull the trigger. Plus, they’d be one step closer to fully embracing their identity as LSU East so why not right?


Speaking of trades, other rumors flying have centered around the potential for the Bengals to pursue a trade for Laremy Tunsil. Except, that scenario would not involve getting back a second rounder. They’d be ponying up pick 31 and probably one or two more picks and his current contract would have them on the hook for only two more years at a heftier $18 million price tag. Then you have to figure out who’s playing on the right side and what to do next year in his contract year. 



One more second, just be patient.


Free agency starts today. Be patient. Don’t panic. Their plan is not going to match what you want their plan to be. And about 30 other teams need offensive line too. What they plan to do and who they actually acquire won’t match either. They are going to miss out on some of their targets and it won’t necessarily be their fault.  Harold Landry just got $52 million guaranteed and over $17 million annually.  Mike Williams signed for $40 million guaranteed and $20 million per year. There are going to be some stupid contracts handed out the next few weeks. When Terron Armstead and Brandon Scherf go flying off the board, don’t hyperventilate when it looks like the Bengals are sitting on their hands 60 minutes after free agency opens. They will make moves. Last year we had to complain for weeks when the Bengals missed out on Matt Feiler and Kevin Zeitler and swapped  Carl Lawson for Trey Hendrickson. Sure an extra guard sounds nice in hindsight, but Feiler didn’t exactly solve the chargers’ problems last year. Chidobe Awuzie made more of an impact. 


We don’t have to worship every move the team makes, but there’s a window of thoughtful analysis in the middle somewhere in between homerism and automatic scorn. 


It would be nice to add four starting caliber offensive linemen in the first day of free agency so we can stop worrying about it. It’s just not going to happen. The roster isn’t set until August. There will be trades, roster cuts, and the draft in between now and then. It might take all summer for them to acquire what they really need and as was proven last year even if it looks like they are wrong they still might be right.   They’ve at least earned the benefit of the doubt.


C’mon Duke! Don’t let us down now buddy. Winning feels too good. Just give us one more second. 

No comments: