1. Carolina C.J Stroud QB Ohio State
I'm sacrificing the dream. All sorts of smoke is circling about C.J. Stroud's test scores and what commitments he did and didn't attend. It does not look like Stroud is going number one overall. I won't be authoring the perfect mock draft this year. That Holy Grail will have to wait (until next year baby! 2024 is going to be the year). Stroud is staying right here in slot number one out of protest! Get that gravelly, way-too-excited-on-every-play college football announcer voice ready. Say it with passion like you just witnessed a man diffuse a bomb to save an entire city like only Gus Johnson can. The pick: "STROUudd."
2. Houston Bryce Young QB Alabama
I'm leaving Bryce Young in slot 2. That said, Stroud should be the first pick but the gap between Young and Stroud isn't so cavernous that it's crazy to go one over the other. The physical limitations on Young (both size and the lack of high end speed) throw just enough risk into the equation that i'm picking Stroud if i have the choice. If Young goes one, there's talk of Houston picking defense here and waiting on QB until 12. OooF, that would be gutsy. If they sweat it out and get Stroud anyway.. BRAVO. More power to them. Perhaps they are the ones leaking dirt on Stroud to try to grease the skids a little? What if that is true, the creepy plan WORKS (!!), and then Stroud finds out that his team sabotaged him! That would be about the most Houston Texans thing ever. For me the dropoff to the next tier of QB's is too far to risk passing on QB at 2. Will Levis is not good and Anthony Richardson is closer to Jordan Love than he is to Cam Newton. It has to be Stroud and Young 1 and 2 or vice versa.
3. Arizona Anthony Richardson QB Florida
TRADE: QB's gravitate to the top of the draft board and the Cardinals happily reap the benefits. The Colts are afraid someone is coming for the last first round caliber QB. The Cardinals move down one slot, add a pick, and get the man they wanted anyway. Richardson has potential through the roof, but he will take time to develop. He's more explosive than just about every athletic QB in the league other than Lamar Jackson and Kyler Murray, but his passing is going to be erratic for a while and i'm not sure he'll ever get there.
4. Indianapolis Will Anderson Edge Alabama
Traded to Arizona
Anderson has been earmarked as the best pass rusher in this class for a couple years now. I don't think we're talking high end Bosa brothers / Myles Garrett level potential here, but as long as he has some support he's going to torture some OT's. Seems a shame to send him to the desert.
5. Seattle Christian Gonzalez CB Oregon
There is a gravitational pull that attracts tall or rangy corners to Seattle.
6. Detroit Jalen Carter DT Georgia
Carter boasts unnatural athleticism for his size and profiles as a stout defender that can wreck shop inside. He drops down a few slots due to the off field and work ethic concerns. There's talk he'll fall further, but if anyone is going to talk themselves into being able to reign in Carter's personality Dan Campbell seems a prime candidate.
7. Las Vegas Cam Smith CB South Carolina
Keep it simple Vegas. Take the best defensive player available. If the phone rings ANSWER IT and accept whatever extra picks they are offering you. You need everything and the talent plateau is pretty flat here. This draft might be the toughest i've seen in terms sorting players into talent tiers beyond the top group. It will be interesting to see what the Raiders do if Richardson or Stroud fall.
8. Atlanta Tyree Wilson DE Texas Tech
Wilson has the juice to develop into an A++ pass rusher. He isn't going to light it up from day 1, but he won't last long in this market.
9. Chicago Darnell Wright OT Tennessee
An elite WR prospect would be nice right about now, the 2023 draft has nothing for Chicago on that front. The Bears opt for the next best thing with a rock solid right tackle. LT would be nice, but Wright is more of a sure thing than most of these other guys and they can't afford to miss.
10. Philadelphia Devon Witherspoon CB Illinois
The Eagles managed to minimize some of the damage to what could have been a massive exodus of defensive players leaving in free agency, but most of what they did involved veterans on short-term band-aid contracts. They need young talent.
11. Tennessee Broderick Jones OT Georgia
Mauling OT for a team that basically has none. They'll have to iron out some wrinkles here. Jones tends to overcommit on blocks and sometimes gets spun around a bit, but all of the tools are there.
12. Houston Nolan Smith OLB Georgia
Smith is an undersized edge player with an impressive athletic profile. I'm not sure he flashes enough in the games i watched to justify taking him this high, but there's always a few head scratchers every year and Houston is typically one of the prime offenders. Looking at where the big name draft pundits have Smith ranked, i have a feeling the league is higher on him than i am.
13. Green Bay Peter Skoronski OT Northwestern
The masses are dying for Green Bay to finally take a first round WR just to see the reaction from Aaron Rodgers. Instead they opt for beef up front. They've patched their way through injuries the last couple years. It's time for a fresh body. Skoronski could stand to add some weight, but based on the power he showed blowing defenders off the ball in college, i think he'll be fine to start and only get better as he adds muscle.
14. New England Jailin Hyatt WR Tennessee
TRADE: Hyatt's 176 lb. frame might scare some people off, but the Chargers need a deep threat with a nose for the endzone and Hyatt fits the bill. Hyatt isn't ranked as the top WR on many boards that i've seen, but i endorse him as the receiver in this class with the most WR1 potential. The Patriots move down like they always do.
15. New York Jets Deonte Banks CB Maryland
I had a tough time sorting through these top 5 or 6 corners. They are all tall hard-nosed and rangy. The Jets add talent around their already blossoming secondary.
16. Washington Bijon Robinson RB Texas
One of the burning questions of Thursday night: Who will take the plunge on Bijon? Robinson is being touted as the best RB talent since Adrian Peterson. I think people are overextending their projection. Don't get me wrong, he's pretty amazing to watch, but he reminds me of an upgraded better receiving version of what Joe Mixon was as a prospect. He's going to deliver punishment and sprint through holes in the defense with blinding speed for his size, but he doesn't create his own holes. His style can be useful for sure (See what the Titans did with Derek Henry's career). But if i'm going to invest heavily in an RB i'm just looking for someone that has a little more shiftiness rather than the lower your shoulder and deliver punishment type. I've seen Robinson going higher in most mocks. Too rich for my blood (Especially considering what will be available on days 2 and 3. This Class is Deep!)
17. Pittsburgh Calijah Kancey DT Pittsburgh
The Steelers like taking Pitt players in the middle of the first round. No sense breaking the trend now.
18. Detroit Lukas Van Ness DE Iowa
Van Ness isn't quite as explosive as i'd like to see in a rd 1 pass rusher, but he has some intriguing inside/outside potential.
19. Tampa Bay Paris Johnson Jr. OT Ohio State
Johnson seems like a slightly lesser LT version of Wright. He isn't going to shut down the best of the best and blow people off the line, but 19 is good value for a potential starting tackle.
20. Seattle Myles Murphy DE Clemson
The value is starting to heat up a little bit. Murphy is an old school 4-3 looking DE. I don't think he's going to develop into a monster, but he has strength and enough quickness to keep opposing offenses honest as number 2 rusher.
21. Los Angeles Chargers Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR Ohio State
(Traded to NEW ENGLAND) - Alright here it is: my "Am i on crazy pills??!!" moment of the year. I've seen Smith-Njigba rated in this range and even 10 slots higher. I don't get it. I wouldn't draft him.. in the SECOND round, let alone in the teens where a lot of people have him ranked. He missed most of the 2022 season with a muscle injury. Sure, he had some nice numbers in 2021 but that was playing mostly in the slot with Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson lined up on the outside. I'm not sure we can really make much of the stats. Going back and watching some of those games, i was pretty underwhelmed. Watching these lean 6' receiver types you expect to see a certain level of fluidity and quickness in the way they move and it's just not there with Smith-Njigba. It's more like when you're riding a bike and you try to switch gears and it catches and jerks a little bit. Then you look at his testing numbers and his 4.48 40 time kind of backs up my eye test assessment. Granted 4.48 certainly is fast enough on the surface, but he didn't run at the combine. We're talking about an OSU pro day time (and if you've ever tracked OSU pro day numbers, they tend to stray from reality a bit. Add .1 and you're probably closer to the truth). Add it all up and i'm scared to draft the guy, but considering how people have him ranked i didn't think i could leave him out of the first round. I'm going to be really mad if he falls, and i hit the storyline dead on, but i was too chicken to predict it. On the bright side, it is the Patriots that stop the "slide" here at 21, and i'm basically straying from mock territory into fantasy land at this point.. I've read about Patriots fans chomping that the bit for Smith-Njigba at 14. Just think how mad they'll be when he falls and they trade out of the pick. He'll fall to them anyway and that will lead all of the "Winners and losers" columns on Friday. Then i'll get to chuckle and shake my head like i did two years ago when they were all high fiving about getting Mac Jones.
22. Baltimore Bryan Bresee DT Clemson
Playmaking 3-technique DT could be a headache in the AFC North for years to come.
23. Minnesota Joey Porter Jr. CB Penn. State
Another long cover corner, but Porter’s athleticism looks a tick below others drafted higher.
24. Jacksonville Zay Flowers WR Boston College
Jitterbug WR that beats defenders laterally then turns up field with fury. 24 is a little aggressive for me, but he's the kind of player someone will fall in love with.
25. New York Giants Jordan Addison WR USC
I was a little disappointed watching Addison. Smooth route runner, but not enough juice.
26. Dallas Felix Anudike-Uzomah DE Kansas State
This is a classic high ceiling low floor pick. He might faceplant, but he's dripping with potential.
27. Buffalo Josh Downs WR North Carolina
I'm higher on Downs than most. He is what people want Addison to be.
28. Cincinnati Jahmyr Gibbs RB Alabama
I'd prefer a different position in the first round, but at this point the value is too much to pass up. Don't groan. Hear me out on this one. Gibbs is more of a hybrid back: big enough to run inside and shifty enough create game-breaking plays. The key word there is "create". It's what's missing in Mixon's career. It's where i fall short on the Bijon Robinson evaluation. It's what's missing in the Cincinnati offense. If i'm going to take a running back in the first round he needs to be able to elude defenders in the second level rather than crash into them. Gibbs' ability to make guys miss makes him the top RB in this class for me. The TE's were still on the board, but Gibbs adds more upside to the offense than anyone else available. unfortunately we're in the position of needing four positions with our first two picks: TE, CB, OT, and RB. Cross your fingers and hope the depth on those positions holds up.
29. New Orleans Dalton Kincaid TE Utah
I have Kincaid as TE2 in this class. He isn't the blocker that others are but he's the best receiver.
30. Philadelphia Will Levis QB Kentucky
TRADE- the Eagles continue their tradition of leveraging their extra picks into picks for next year. I'm not sure who is falling into this trap, but somebody is taking the bait.
31. Kansas City Darnell Washington TE Georgia Washington is a giant that can move and block. Good luck guarding K.C. in two TE sets in the red zone.
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