What do the Bengals need? Back in October, I can remember scratching my head over the question. I thought some of the backups could be upgraded, but there didn’t seem to be any glaring holes among the starters. While the roster is still stronger now than I can ever remember it being, it is apparent there are some gaps to fill to avoid slumping back into the world of 7-9 sloppiness.
2009 was a good year for Cincinnati. It wasn’t great. It didn’t end the way Bengals fans wanted, but they swept the division. They hosted a playoff game and it’s hard not to remember injuries to Reggie Kelly, Chris Henry, and Antwan Odom and think about what might have been. Overall, their finish probably reflected their true place in the league hierarchy for the year: somewhere between ninth and twelfth place. So what’s next? In 2005, the team rode a powerful offense with an opportunistic defense into the playoffs. Through the ups and downs of the past few years, they’ve transformed into a rugged hang-in-there type of offense with a solid, blossoming defense. In the end, the offense cracked under the constant pressure of grinding games out and the defense impressed but ran out of bullets as they wore down with a pile of injuries in the front seven. To take things to the next level, one unit or the other is going to have to upgrade into the aggressive/explosive category while the other unit holds its ground. Here’s a position-by-position breakdown of the roster.
The Offense:
Quarterback (3):
What’ve we got?!: (must be read in extra-cool Al Pacino voice)
Probably no movement here. It’s not time to look for Carson Palmer’s replacement yet. He has been inconsistent, but it’s not all his fault. He is the horse they picked. They’re not going to change now in the prime of his career.
What should they do?:
Stand pat. With Palmer’s injury history, three quarterbacks is a must. One or two years down the road, start looking for a new third stringer to groom.
Running Back (4):
What’ve we got?!:
How do you like Mike Brown now? The Bengals’ owner is routinely roasted in the media for constantly taking risks on players with questionable pasts. Yet, Brown just keeps pulling the trigger and the Bengals have a stable RB situation to show for it. Not only has Cedric Benson proven to be a solid #1 back, but also he’s been a quality citizen in the locker room. I hate to jinx it but the Bernard Scott pick is even looking good at this point. Brian Leonard rounds out the group nicely as the utility guy.
What should they do?:
Unless they find an explosive receiving back to upgrade on Leonard, you probably won’t see them go for much more than late-round, practice squad type of players in the draft. Jahvid Best isn’t quite as absurd as it initially sounds considering Benson isn’t locked up and the general need for offensive spark, but I figure they’ll find somewhere more practical to invest their first round pick.
Wide Receiver (6):
What’ve we got?!:
Here’s where things get dicey. Seen in most circles as their top need, the front office has made a concerted effort so far to patch things up through free agency. I am lukewarm on what they’ve done, but when you break it down I think they made the right decisions. Antonio Bryant seems like a good fit, but I hesitate to get too excited as I felt the same way about Laveranues Coles last year. In contrast, Bryant is younger, bigger, faster, and less worn down than Coles, but can he stay healthy and will past character issues bubble to the surface? I’ll give the Bengals’ front office credit though for stepping back up to the plate a year after whiffing with Coles. The more intriguing question is whether they would have been better off opting for the older but more accomplished Terrelle Owens? He probably still has #2WR skills left in him and they could have kept some roster flexibility by signing him to a low-risk one-year contract. Both receivers still have speed along with the size and strength needed to make tough catches in traffic. Mulling it over, I think the biggest advantage Bryant provides is Chad insurance. Ochocinco isn’t on the decline yet, but he’s no spring chicken. In the event that he goes down within the next two or three years, Bryant is the best option on the radar to fill in as the top receiving target in a pinch.
Past the top two WR’s, the depth chart is cloudy. Andre Caldwell might still develop into a viable option as a starter but for right now he doesn’t make me feel warm and fuzzy as the third receiver. Behind Caldwell it’s even more alarming. I don’t think Quan Cosby and Maurice Purify will ever excel much past being special teamers and free agents Matt Jones and Chris Davis are sleepers more than anything. Jerome Simpson has the physical tools but has been unable to earn any playing time. If one of those top three guys goes down, it could get scary pretty quick.
What should they do?:
The key is to find a fourth receiver they feel can contribute to the offense if needed. Granted, I am being picky. Caldwell would be an upgrade from the starters on some teams, but this offense puts a pretty heavy load on wide receivers. They don’t get a lot of receiving yards from the tight ends or running backs. Jones, Simpson, and possibly a first to third round draft pick should compete for that fourth slot. Cosby earns a spot as the punt returner (I was thinking they could use a replacement until I looked at the stats and saw that Cosby finished the year tied with Josh Cribbs for fourth in the league in average yards per punt return). That leaves one roster spot for whoever can play special teams best: Davis, Purify, Freddie Brown, or low round draft pick.
Taking a WR early carries some risk. If the guy doesn’t win that fourth receiver slot it could put them in the roster bind of having to keep 7 receivers or risk compromising their special teams unit slightly. Considering the age of their top targets and the time it takes to develop college WR’s, I think it’s worth it to get a new high-end prospect in the pipeline. In the first round they could consider Golden Tate (Notre Dame), Arrelious Benn (Illinois), or Demaryius Thomas (Georgia Tech). Tate is shorter than scouts prefer, but his on-field production speaks for itself and he eased concerns about his speed at the combine. Benn appears to be a better fit physically and some attribute his lack of high-end productivity to the general deficiencies of Illinois’ offense. I watched him pretty closely in the Illinois Cincinnati game. He just wasn’t getting open. Against last year’s Bearcat defense that is alarming. Thomas is a boom or bust prospect whose full potential is unclear because of the option heavy offense ran by Georgia Tech. He’s been a fast riser as scouts have taken notice of his prototypical size and speed and his high average yards per catch. Unfortunately, the values of Tate and Benn probably end up falling somewhere between when Cincy picks in the first and second rounds while Thomas might be gone by the 21st pick. Don’t fret though if you’re hoping for a WR and it doesn’t quite work out in round 1. There is a strong pocket of second and third round talent in this draft class behind Dez Bryant, Thomas, Tate, and Benn. Jordan Shipley (Texas), Mardy Gilyard (Cincinnati), Taylor Price (Ohio), Riley Cooper (Florida), Eric Decker (Minesota), and David Reed (Utah) are all solid possibilities. That doesn’t even include Mike Williams, the first round talent with late-round character known most for quitting the team at Syracuse. I wouldn’t touch him with a ten-foot pole but knowing the Bengals, he could be an option.
Tight End (3):
What’ve we got?!:
Right now they’re down to Chase Coffman trying to recover from an injury plagued rookie season and the underwhelming Daniel Coats.
What should they do?:
Coffman’s status is crucial. The sound bites coming from Marvin Lewis have given every indication that he thinks Coffman can play a significant role in the offense this year. A productive tight end would take some of the pressure off the wide receivers. If Coffman is up to the task, they can wait until the third day of the draft to look for help at the position. I hope that re-signing Coats was just a backup plan in case Reggie Kelly either isn’t able to return from the torn Achilles or doesn’t want to return. I would like to see them bring back Kelly and look for solid blocking tight end in the fourth round. In that case, Coats would be the odd man out if everyone else makes it through training camp healthy. Oklahoma’s Jermaine Gresham will get a look in the first round but his injury history might create enough doubt to allow them to ignore his tremendous receiving skills. Even if Coffman can’t contribute and they need someone who can step in this year, a deep tight end class should allow them to find a quality player in the second or third round.
O-Line (9):
What’ve we got?!:
I’ve seen some criticism aimed at the Bengals offensive line throughout the offseason, but I thought their 2009 performance was one of the bright spots of the year. At times, they gave up too much pressure on the quarterback, but they’re young. They’ll only get better. They were definitely more physical up front and it showed with increased production out of the rushing attack. Andrew Whitworth proved to be a high-quality left tackle, but almost as important was the improved play at the center position from first-year starter Kyle Cook. Nate Livings and Evan Mathis were an adequate tag team at left guard and Dennis Roland filled in admirably for injured rookie RT Andre Smith. Speaking of Smith, I liked what I saw in the limited action he saw towards the end of the year. More often than not when he cane in on jumbo packages he would fire off the line and just bury people. I thought the weak link of the unit was veteran right guard Bobbie Williams. With Williams not re-signed yet, Mathis, second year center/guard Jonathan Luigs, and the former DT being converted to guard, Jason Shirley, currently are left vying for the right guard slot. Anthony Collins and Roland are the backup tackles
What should they do?:
I’m excited to see if Andre Smith can overcome offseason foot surgery to upgrade the right side of the line. The big decision is whether or not to resign Williams, an unrestricted free agent. I think they have to let him go. He’s good for the locker room, but he got beat way too much last year to justify any more than a one-year contract. Resources would be much better spent on new contracts for Cook and the starting CB’s than a 33 year-old guard who’s lost a step.
O-line shouldn’t be a high priority in the draft. If they opt for not re-signing Williams, they’ll look for a guard at some point, but it probably won’t be in round 1. Mike Iupati leads a thin crop of interior offensive lineman, but there’s no way he gets past Pittsburgh at 18. Think Mike Johnson (Alabama) in the second, Zane Beadles (Utah) in the third or Illinois’ Jon Asamoah in the fourth.
Offensive Draft Pick Board:
The knee-jerk reaction to the 2009 season is that the Bengals should use draft resources to bolster the offense. Maybe so, but the search for offensive help might have to wait until after the first round. The defensive talent in this draft is so deep, there’s a good chance they find a defender they can’t pass up. Here’s a look at how I’d rank the first round offensive prospects for the Bengals and the chances that each will be available (on a scale of 1 to 10)
1. C.J. Spiller RB Clemson: Availability – 2
Do they need him? No. Could they pass him up if he were there? No. Will he be available? Probably not.
2. Dez Bryant WR Oklahoma State: Availability – 4
There has been a lot of chatter about his maturity and character flags and he is starting to drop into the mid-teens in mock drafts. Yet, the guy is getting compared to Andre Johnson. Chances are he doesn’t tumble.
3. Jermaine Gresham TE Oklahoma: Availability – 7
Unless someone trades up, I’m fairly certain he’ll be available. By all accounts his blend of size and athleticism is unparalleled. He would definitely add a new dimension to the offense, but there are questions. He’s had a major injury to each knee, what’s the risk? Are they better off drafting a defensive player for the future and dipping into the deep tight end class later to pair with Chase Coffman? The only thing that scares me about passing on Gresham is the likelihood that if he falls past Cincy, he goes to Baltimore. It all depends who else is available.
4. Demaryius Thomas WR Georgia Tech: Availability – 6
Thomas scares me to death because he seems like the prospect most equipped to replace Chris Henry, but he’s unproven. You have to go out on a limb to get him.
5. Mike Iupati G Idaho: Availability – 5
He’s from a small school, but you wouldn’t know it from the way he played at the Senior Bowl. He’s big. He’s Strong. He’d be too good to pass up if by some miracle he were available.
6. Golden Tate WR Notre Dame: Availability - 9
He is a talented player that might be a slight reach at 21. However, the goal has to be to add one to two players in the first three rounds that can help them generate first downs more consistently. If they think Tate is the guy, they should go for it.
To Be Continued: Next post, I’ll dig into the defense.
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