The Top Ten:
1. Tennessee: Laremy Tunsil OT Ole' Miss.
Usually analysts are hesitant to compare prospects to star players. When they do, they qualify it with all kinds of disclaimers like they are a commercial for blood pressure medicine. I heard an interview with Lance Zierlein, a pretty solid draft analyst specifically known for his chops evaluating offensive line talent, where he almost casually referred to Tunsil in the same sentence with Walter Jones (yes, the hall of famer). There are other players good enough for Tennessee to consider, but taking Tunsil on the heels of Mariota is too juicy to pass up. I don't care if they've already invested resources at the position
2. Cleveland: Carson Wentz, QB North Dakota State
Cleveland should take a quarterback. There's some chatter building that they won't at #2. Denver wins a Super Bowl with Zombie Peyton Manning going three and out 17 straight times (that number is only slightly exaggerated) and people get disillusioned enough to think they can get cute at QB. Take a DB? Take a DE? Find your quarterback later? Beware Cleveland. It will only add to your legend.
3. San Diego: Jalen Ramsey, DB Florida State
Offensive line would be nice, but there's more value at defense. Ramsey has been heralded as the best corner and the best safety in the draft. Some mock him to Tennessee. 3 to 5 is more likely.
4. Dallas: Joey Bosa, DE Ohio State
Jared Allen Retires. Joey Bosa enters the league. It feels like the universe is in balance. Bosa is a two-way defender technically sound enough to contribute against the run and the pass as a rookie. Just imagine what Rod Marinelli will do with him.
5. Jacksonville: Myles Jack, LB UCLA
Drafting a non-pass rushing linebacker early has become a faux pas. Yet, the direction the league has gone, defense is now a match-up game as much as anything. The value of elite coverage linebackers is quickly approaching that of rushers. Elite almost doesn't describe Jack's coverage talent. Famously, when UCLA played USC in 2014, Jack lined up against Nelson Agholor on more than a few snaps in cover 0 (one on one with no safety help). Agholor didn't have a catch.
6. Baltimore: Ronnie Stanley, OT Notre Dame
I haven't heard Stanley compared to any HOF'ers, but rumor has it some teams like him as much as Tunsil.
7. San Francisco: Jared Goff QB California
49ers snag their QB of the future who played his college ball closer to San Francisco than the 49ers do.
49ers snag their QB of the future who played his college ball closer to San Francisco than the 49ers do.
8. Philadelphia: Vernon Hargreaves CB Florida
I love the move by Philly to trade up from 13 to 8. Consensus has a dropoff in talent after the top 9 or 10 players and they didn't give up much to do it. Hargreaves looked like an elite talent in 2014. Analysts downgraded his 2015 performance slightly, but he's still a worthy pick here.
9. Tampa Bay: DeForest Buckner DE Oregon
Another 6'7" 290 lb. DE from Oregon. I can't get Arik Armstead out of my head from last year, but according to most, Buckner is closer to Leonard Williams than Armstead.
10. New York Giants: Jack Conklin OT Michigan State
The Giants have clusterbombed their defensive line need in free agency. Given their track record that doesn't mean they won't go DL here, but I don't think the value fits. They have a host of other needs. O-line makes the most sense.
Bengals Big Board: Best of the Rest
Okay, wipe those top ten off the board. I'm reasonably sure they will all be gone before pick 24. Throw in Ezekiel Elliot. He should be gone too.
Beyond that, opinions on remaining players are all over the place. Obviously they won't all be available at Cincy's pick, but any of them could be. Here's how I'd rank the next 13 best options for the Bengals. By my count, they should have a shot at one of these guys.
1. Laquon Treadwell WR Ole' Miss.
2. Josh Doctson WR TCU
Or as autocorrect put it when I typed this up: Lawman Treadwell and Josh Diction. Doctson isn't quite the precise technican you'd expect in someone named Diction, but Lawman seems to be about the perfect nickname for Treadwell. Everybody wants a blazing speed receiver, but I prefer these two guys first. Scouring for fast guys to attack defenses is almost cliche. Think about Andy Dalton's skill set. What is more valuable in this offense, someone who can beat a defender 50 yards down the field, or a player that specializes at intermediate routes and making contested catches? Both of these guys find ways to get open and can go deep on a more limited basis when needed. Both are great at attacking the ball in the air and either might actually upgade the red zone offense immediately. Do these two have enough speed to get open in the pros? Doctson posted adequate numbers at the combine running a 4.5 40 and finishing near the top of the position group in most other tests. Treadwell finally ran at his pro-day and ran a 4.65 40. It is a testament to his skill level that despite the slow time, most analysts are still stumping for him to get selected in the top 20. Both players will be fine. Treadwell is more polished and his body is more NFL-ready. Doctson feels like a better fit to develop into Robin to Batman A.J. Green.
3. Corey Coleman WR Baylor
Small, speedy receiver that makes big plays. His college offense didn't ask him to run many routes, but he should be able to contribute early on shear athleticism in the short and long passing game.
4. A'Shawn Robinson DT Alabama
Some think Robinson is purely a two-down defender and fringe first rounder. Others see him as a plus run defender with pass rushing upside sloted in the 10 to 20 range. If someone like New Orleans takes him, I think they'll be disappointed. Stick him between Geno Atkins and Michael Johnson and I think maybe you have a difference maker on defense. The idea is to upgrade the Peko spot on the D-line with someone more athletic that can still defend the run. Year one they'll be ok. Year two they have a chance to morph into something special.
5. Darron Lee LB Ohio State
Playmaking LB with unbelievable athleticism. He probably has to play weak side, which means they'd have to move Burfict to the middle. They've resisted doing that, but increased athleticism on the second level of the defense is sorely needed. This would be one way to do it.
6. Reggie Ragland LB Alabama
Stout MLB with size that flys to the ball. Coverage skills are a question mark. Think rich man's Rey Maualuga. Does Alambama's D-line mask any of Ragland's flaws?
7. Robert Nkemdiche DT Ole' Miss.
Classic top-ten talent with no shortage of character concerns. He will struggle if he's asked to shoulder too much, but surrounded by a talented d-line I think he'll thrive. It sounds like the off-the-field red flags might even push him into the second round.
8. Jarran Reed DT Alabama
Big stout DT that excels vs. the run, but hasn't really been asked to penetrate. Another Alabama front seven player. It always makes me queasy to see so many guys ranked high from the same team playing positions in such a close proximity to each other. Going against inferior college talent do they make each other look better than they actually are? The Bengals run defense is a little streaky. I wouldn't mind upgrading the Peko slot on the starting line and plugging in a space eater to free up everyone else.
9. Andrew Billngs DT Baylor
10. Vernon Butler DT Louisiana Tech
The parade of DT's continues. There is a line somewhere where the best DT available doesn't have enough immediate upgrade potential to warrant selecting them in the first round. I'm not sure the line where they'd wait on DT isn't going to be drawn at Reed in which case these two would slide down this list a little. Not to mention, if they pass on DT at 24, there are three or four more that wouldn't be a major dropoff waiting to get selected in round 2. There will be a run on the position before the Bengals' second round pick, but somebody should be left.
11. Shaq Lawson DE Clemson
Best 4-3 DE in this class not named Bosa. Some prefer his teammate, Kevin Dodd. I have to look a little closer but Dodd seems to try to sprint around the edge on every play. Lawson has a little more variety to his moves. DE isn't the biggest need but if they think they can get a future starter at one of the premier positions in the league, it is worth the investment.
12. Eli Apple CB Ohio State
Corner with size who showed great athleticism at the combine. It feels like the Bengals funnel endless resources this direction but depending how good they feel about Dre Kirkpatrick it might be necessary.
13. Will Fuller WR Notre Dame
Another short fast guy. At 6', he doen't catch as much flack for being little, but he's only 1" taller and about 10 lbs. lighter than Coleman. Fuller is a deep threat but that's about it at this point.
Orrrrrr...
***14.*** Jaylon Smith LB Notre Dame
The Notre Dame LB is exactly what the Bengals defense needs: a rangy linebacker that can penetrate and make plays behind the line of scrimmage. Unfortunately, he tore up his knee in January bad enough that he likely won't be available for 2016 and there's some risk he'll never be the same athlete again. As many have quipped, if he were healthy he'd be a top 10 pick. With questions about whether or not there is nerve damage in his knee still unanswered, I don't think anyone in the top 23 can afford to take the risk on him. The Bengals on the other hand have the flexibility to pull the trigger. The doctors will have their say. If there's a decent chance he recovers, I would slot him somewhere on the 5 to 7 range on this list. If they are highly confident in a full recovery, I'd bump him up in the 1 to 3 range.
Others in the Mix:
Mackenzie Alexander CB Clemson
Ultra confident bump and run corner. Wasn't tested much in college.
Sheldon Rankins DT Louisville
Probably should be ranked higher, but might be too small to play next to Atkins
Leonard Floyd OLB Georgia
Raw 3-4 OLB. I'm not sure they want to gamble on him as a 4-3 convert. Hopefully he gets taken higher and pushes everyone else down.
Kevin Dodd DE Clemson
See Shaq Lawson notes above.
Noah Spence OLB Eastern Kentucky
A better fit than Floyd to convert to a stand up edge rushing LB that can also handle 4-3 duties. Off the field concerns and disappointing workouts drop him down.
Von Bell S Ohio State
With Reggie Nelson officially moving on, a safety wouldn't be the worst idea in the world. If they do it in round 1, Bell is their top option.
Ryan Kelly C Alabama
Sorry Russ Bodine. I am still trying to replace you.
That's it. I'll try to squeeze a few other posts in predraft, but definitely check back the week of draft day for my final mock.
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