It's go time! Once again, I'm sneaking in under the deadline here. The predraft trades have taken some of the suspense out of the top ten, but there should still be plenty of excitement. Here's my take on how Thursday night will unfold.
1. Los Angeles
The Pick: Jared Goff QB California
2. Philadelphia
The Pick: Carson Wentz QB North Dakota State
Not one but two teams paid healthy ransoms for the opportunity to select this year's top two quarterbacks. As news of the trades broke, opinions quickly polarized into two sides.
a. There's no price too high for a franchise quarterback. If they think they found their guy, they're right to pay whatever it takes.
b. These guys aren't worth top 10 picks. They paid too much.
Both sides are right and both sides are wrong. The price of 37 first round picks is too high. One seventh round pick is too low. There is a line somewhere in between that is just right. On the other hand, quarterback is the one position where teams need to evaluate the players, decide which one they want, and then go after them. You can try to be patient and let the draft come to you, but more than likely if you aren't aggressive, you will miss out.
Side b. thinks Goff and Wentz aren't worth top 10 picks, let alone worth mortgaging significant draft resources to trade up to take them in the top 10. To me, the evaluation part of this is a separate discussion. It is a hard process. Teams get it wrong every year. Professional analysts get it wrong every year. Amateurs like myself get it wrong every year. It isn't hard to find opposing opinions from analysts that you trust on just about every prospect. I'm not going to sit here and say that they are right or wrong for liking these quarterbacks. That said, consensus seems to be that neither of these players are plug and play starters. If that's true, I have reservations whether the Rams and Eagles will be able to surround their QB's with enough talent for them to succeed. Time will tell.
3. San Diego
Current buzz has the Chargers taking DeForest Buckner. Maybe they're just trying to trigger trade offers from teams in love with Buckner, but if they actually go through with it I think they're making a mistake. O-line injuries sank their last two seasons. Sorry, "we just re-signed King Dunlap" isn't a good enough reason to pass on the best OT prospect in years.
The Pick: Laremy Tunsil OT Mississippi
4. Dallas
Neither Myles Jack nor Jalen Ramsey is allowed to fall to the Ravens. I forbid it! I would have paid to see what Dallas would have done if a quarterback was still on the board here, but L.A. and Philly had to go get overzealous and now we'll never know. Negative news is swirling about Jack's knee. I don't think he falls.
The Pick: Myles Jack, LB UCLA
5. Jacksonville
It seems like the Jaguars have been trying to find a pass rusher for a decade, but all of their draft picks and free agent signings have either gotten injured or have been busts. Better take the DB here Gus.
The Pick: Jalen Ramsey, DB Florida State
6. Baltimore
Baltimore's D-line just keeps getting bigger and meaner.
The Pick: DeForest Buckner DE Oregon
7. San Francisco
San Francisco takes a look and decides to trade down when Miami calls. Miami has been trying for months to add a decent running back. Now they have their man.
The Pick: Ezekiel Elliot, RB Ohio State
8. Cleveland
I think Cleveland is going to trade down again, but I don't have a strong feeling on the trade partner. The hottest name on the draft board right now is Georgia OLB Leonard Floyd. Floyd oozes explosive athleticism on the field, but he is rail thin and from what I saw he has a ways to go before he realizes his potential. Regardless, NFL teams are drooling over the way Floyd effortlessly darts around the field. The New Orleans Saints are the lucky winners here.
The Pick: Leonard Floyd OLB Georgia
9. Tampa Bay
Speaking of lucky winners, the Buccaneers stumble into one of the best pass rushers in the class.
The Pick: Joey Bosa DE Ohio State
10. New York Giants
The Giants are reportedly hoping for Floyd, but they settle for an OT that will tie all the pieces of their O-line together. Jack Conklin is a grinder that should be able to hold down LT and allow the rest of the unit to slide into more natural roles at right tackle and guard.
The Pick: Jack Conklin OT Michigan State
11. Chicago
The Bears are in the market for a pass rusher. Instead of reaching for a DE, they opt for a penetrating DT that wreaks havoc on the interior.
The Pick: Sheldon Rankins DT Louisville
12. New Orleans
In this scenario, Cleveland moves into this slot. They are reportedly interested in Paxton Lynch, but before they think QB of the future, they decide to solidify their O-line first. Luckily for them, Ronnie Stanley has fallen right into their lap.
The Pick: Ronnie Stanley OT Notre Dame
13. Miami
Another traded pick. This time it's San Francisco on the clock. Vernon Hargreaves is supposedly tumbling down the draft board into the 20 to 25 range. I think he falls out of the top 10, but corner needy San Francisco ends his slide.
The Pick: Vernon Hargreaves CB Florida
14. Oakland
Oakland ponders dipping into the deep DT class, but can't resist bolstering their linebacking corps. Reggie Ragland should stabilize the middle of the field. There will be big bodies up front to select later.
The Pick: Reggie Ragland LB Alabama
15. Tennessee
The Titans are finally on the clock after trading away the number 1 pick. They could go a variety of directions here. D-line makes sense, but there isn't a lot of value here that fits their scheme. William Jackson has been steadily climbing up the draft board. Cornerback gets the nod.
The Pick: William Jackson III CB Houston
16. Detroit
Once a strength, free agency has depleted the Lions' D-line. Most are higher on Shaq Lawson than I am. He makes a lot of plays, but he doesn't seem to have blistering speed or raw strength and he falls down a lot. I'm not sure he's not just a really good college player. Still, a lot of analysts will consider this great value.
The Pick: Shaq Lawson DE Clemson
17. Atlanta
I did a little research on Lawson's running mate, Kevin Dodd. I actually ended up liking him better than Lawson. Dodd needs to develop a wider variety of pass rush moves, but he just looks to me like he's a little more heavy-handed than Lawson. He has more pop. If they're not careful, Atlanta may someday approach Jaguar-level neediness at defensive end.
The Pick: Kevin Dodd DE Clemson
18. Indianapolis
The Colts need to protect Andrew Luck. I don't care if they spend all of their picks on o-line. Even if they have to cut a few of them, it would be worth it.
The Pick: Taylor Decker OT Ohio St.
19. Buffalo
Rex Ryan never really had a blistering outside linebacker in New York. He decides to take a crack at it here. The draft process has been a roller coaster ride for Noah Spence. The Bills gamble on the character risk.
The Pick: Noah Spence OLB Eastern Kentucky
20. New York Jets
There isn't a good O-line fit for the Jets here so they decide to pump some athleticism into their front seven.
The Pick: Darron Lee LB Ohio St.
21. Washington
If you are a Bengals fan drooling that no receivers are off the board yet, the run starts here. Corey Coleman is electric. The Redskins need a backup plan for some juice in their offense if DeSean Jackson can't stay healthy. Consider Coleman an adequate backup generator.
The Pick: Corey Coleman WR Baylor
22. Houston
Like the Bengals, the Texans don't have much more than stop gaps in place opposite their star wide receiver. They decide to go with greasy fast speed in a class that is a little light on that commodity.
The Pick: Will Fuller WR Notre Dame
23. Minnesota
The run continues. The Vikings need to keep funneling talent around Teddy Bridgewater. Josh Doctson will make for a nice security blanket.
The Pick: Josh Doctson WR TCU
24. CINCINNATI!!!
Without further ado, I'll introduce you to the Bengals new WR2: Laquon "Lawman" Treadwell!
As a testament to how wide open this first round is going to be, I'm not sure whether to defend this pick as a stretch that Treadwell will fall this far or a reach that Cincy should wait on WR and draft defense. Beware, if he's the guy you're really hoping for, he comes in play from about pick 10 on. I came close to mocking him elsewhere several times (particularly to Cleveland in their trade-down scenario), but in the end the combination of Treadwell's lack of enticing measureables and the lack of WR-needy teams in the middle of the round leads him to slide right down the draft board into a smiling Marvin Lewis's lap.
Treadwell is a beast. Sure, he ran a slow 40 time, but he gets open with rout running, physicality, and body control. He will be a red zone threat. He will thrive on intermediate targets. He will block tenaciously. He fits right into the wheelhouse of this offense.
A.J. Green is quick and agile with speed when he needs it: the Jungle Cat.
Tyler Eifert is a movable chess piece that can go any direction at any time: The Queen
Free-agency hit the WR corps hard, but with the Lawman, the Queen, and the Cat on the prowl, I expect that everything will be okay.
Since I've officially talked this potential outcome up too much, let's talk some alternatives. This WR class doesn't have a lot of WR1 prospects, but luckily for Cincy it has WR2 prospects stashed in just about every round. If Doctson or Coleman slip to 24 instead of Treadwell, I'd endorse either one. Who better to take over for Marvin Jones than the player I've seen comped as a very rich-man's Marvin Jones, Doctson. Coleman has big-play ability, but he's more versatile than someone like Will Fuller. Sterling Sheperd, Leonte Carroo, Tyler Boyd, Daniel Braverman, Michael Thomas; these guys would all make fine targets in later rounds.
If they opt for defense they might be taking another corner, especially if Hargreaves drops as much as is being advertised. Eli Apple, Mackensie Alexander, and Artie Burns are other corners that might be in their range. At DL, both Alabama DT's are available in this mock. Robert Nkemdiche is a wild card. Chris Jones has a lot of buzz. Vernon Butler and Andrew Billings are big, strong interior guys that could contribute. Sadly, it looks like the odds of a Jaylon Smith full recovery are long enough that the Notre Dame linebacker could fal into day 3. At DE I would be disappointed with Emmanuel Ogbah, but he is a player I could see them taking. Let's not think about that though. Just cross your fingers and keep dreaming about the Lawman.
The Pick: Laquon Treadwell WR Mississippi
25. Pittsburgh
The Steelers have last year's second round pick, CB Senquez Golson, coming back after missing all of last year, and they continue to bolster their secondary here with Eli Apple. Big athletic corners don't grow on trees.
The Pick; Eli Apple CB Ohio St.
26. Seattle
Chris Jones has size and strength, but he can penetrate and disrupt as well. Seattle will gladly start a DT run.
The Pick: Chris Jones DT Mississippi St.
27. Green Bay
The packers need some beef up front. Luckily that isn't hard to find in this class.
The Pick: Jarran Reed DT Alabama
28. Kansas City
A'Shawn Robinson will fit in nicely as a 3-4 DE and he has future potential as a pass rusher.
The Pick: A'Shawn Robinson DT Alabama
29. Arizona
Outside pass rushers are a little bit thin in this class. The Cardinals pick up one of the last few worthy of consideration in round 1.
The Pick: Kamalei Correa OLB Boise State
30. Carolina
If the Panthers want to replace the swag of Josh Norman, look no farther than Mackensie Alexander.
The Pick: Mackensie Alexander CB Clemson
31. Denver
The Broncos begin to rebuild their offensive line with a versatile player that can be slotted into just about any spot.
The Pick: Cody Whitehair OG Kansas St.
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