QB Blitz

The quarterbacks are sliding, the quarterbacks are sliding.  The February and March storylines blared across the internet like an air raid siren warning the world of impending doom.  Now we are a week from the draft and you are starting to hear a little bit different buzz. Maybe the Browns like a quarterback.  Maybe the Texans like one.  So what is it, teams wafting smoke screens from the tops of their facilities or tiny leaks springing as the pressure of the moment mounts each day?    

Probably both.  There is definitely some gamesmanship going on.  On the other hand, this QB class has been undersold all along.  The 49ers and Bears seem serious about not taking a quarterback, but the Jets are just sitting there like a bad poker player dealt pocket aces trying to keep a straight look on his face.   On the surface they are nodding, “Absolutely, this quarterback class is terrible!”  But inside it’s, “We @$$&ing just want Deashaun Watson!  Please don’t take him. Please don’t take him.”

And why wouldn’t they?  He’s like Geno Smith with poise and character (Okay that might be underselling him a little, but we’ll get to that).

And it won’t just be one QB to go early, QB2 and QB3 will come off the board by pick 20 with QB4 not far behind.  I’ll admit, I’m not saying this with 100% confidence, but it’s definitely more likely than the 0 QB’s in the top 20 theory.  But the story here is not that all four QB’s will get taken in the first round, it is that all four QB’s SHOULD get taken in the first round.  Everyone can’t help themselves from ragging on this class.   Guess what, quarterback is still the best way to upgrade your team.  If you don’t have a top 15 guy in the league, you don’t have a chance.    The pundits can't get past the flaws.  Meanwhile, all of the league decision makers are sitting there shifting their eyes back and forth waiting for someone to blink.  Here’s the disconnect: the media, fan bases, and probably some front office members can’t accept that even though a quarterback isn’t a day 1 starter, it doesn’t mean they are a bad prospect.  It is a case by case situation.  Someone like Cam Newton can hop into the league and thrive in trial by fire mode.  Others like David Car get incinerated.  Some guys just need to get a feel for what defensive schemes are doing.  Learn the speed of players. Learn pro offenses until they are second nature.  Iron out some kinks in their mechanics.  Play a few times in the first few years in some spot duty to get their feet wet. THEN they can go take the league by storm.  Everyone gets wrapped around the salary of a top 10 pick.  Who cares?  Some backup quarterbacks make a lot of money these days.  So what if you pay one $10 million?  The rookie salary structure has adjusted to allow it.  The cap is adjusting to allow it.  Draft your guy then develop him until you think he’s ready.  If it is number 1 overall.  So be it.  Talking heads will chortle, “You can’t take a guy that high then sit him on your bench.”  Sorry, weak-minded pundit. That is a garbage take.  Quarterback is different.  You can’t compete without one so stack your roster with as much talent as possible then wait for it to bloom.  You have four to five years before you have to decide.  As a coach or GM you might not be around four or five years, but what are you going to take to your next interview? 

“Well, we cut our nose off despite are face, because it was best for me if we took a player that could provide a quicker, albeit smaller, impact."

orrrrrrr

“I did the best thing for my team regardless of the consequences to me because it was my job to do that.”

Value, value, value.  No one can stop talking about value.  “First round” value.  “Top ten” value.  It means nothing. Evaluate the players.  Decide who you like. Then draft them as late as you think you think you can get away with. 

So what are the QB’s in this class?  Yes, none of them are surefire day 1 starters, but all of them have above-average starter potential: 

Deshaun Watson, Clemson: 

Maybe Geno Smith isn’t a bad low-end apocalyptic comp, but I would go with rich man’s Teddy Bridgewater or Alex Smith 2.0.  Again, that might not get your motor revved up, but if you are waiting to find Peyton Manning, you are likely going to keep waiting.

 

Pat Mahomes, Texas Tech: 

Flies-by-the-seat-of-his-pants prospects usually draw the same high-end Brett Favre comp.  Mahomes is no different. It might actually be justified in this case.  What’s the low end comp?  Somewhere between Josh Freeman and Jay Cutler with better character and attitude.  We’re talking boom or bust here, but if there’s a potential upside that will get you Brett Favre, someone is going to take a swing at him in the first round.   And why wouldn’t they? The value in this draft class is relatively flat.  Outside of the top 1 or 2 picks, there really isn’t anyone you could take in the first round that you couldn’t find a reasonably comparable, slightly-downgraded version 30 picks later.  Somebody will talk themselves into Mahomes.

  

Mitchell Trubisky, North Carolina:  

Trubisky had the best 2017 of any of these guys, but the fact that he only started one year in college gives everyone pause.  People point to the Stanford bowl game as a negative.  I came out of it fairly impressed.  UNC was driving at the end of the game down 8 points.  Once they got down around the 30 yard line, Trubisky threw 5 straight passes that could have been caught for touchdowns.  The first two were dropped.  The third was caught, but the receiver couldn’t quite keep his balance well enough to get into the end zone.  The fourth was dropped.  UNC scored to get within 2 on the fifth attempt, but lost the game when Trubisky got pummeled on the two point conversion attempt by multiple defensive lineman within a second of snapping the ball.  A lot of people can’t look at him without the ghost of Mark Sanchez floating around in the back of their mind.  I think if you need a quarterback, you have to take a shot on him.     

Deshone Kizer, Notre Dame: 

Big strong armed quarterback that struggles with accuracy at times.  Everyone is scratching their heads because Notre Dame stunk this year.  I see hints of Donovan McNabb.  Andy Reid will too.  There is a little bit of a scary floor to Kizer if you don’t think he will ever be able to process reads quick enough and throw accurately enough to be successful.  Coaches see themselves as sculptors though.  I’d be surprised if he lasts into day 2. 

Are all of these guys going to pan out?  Absolutely not, but at least one of them will.  Yes, they all have flaws, but there is enough starter potential here that all four should go within the first 32 picks. Go ahead NFL, do it.  You’ll get chastised.

“These teams are panicking.  They are pushing these guys up their draft boards.  There is a quarterback tax.  They are overating the position.”  It’s okay.  Don’t listen.  Actually, the talking heads squawking are underrating the position.  Forget about them.  Go for it NFL.  Go get your QB.