1. Nick Bosa, Ohio State
Bosa was anointed the top prospect in this class a long time ago. Watching his games I'll admit I was expecting him to pop a little more, but after watching pretty much all of the top prospects I still have Bosa as the best non-quarterback prospect. I'd say his ceiling isn't quite as high as players like Murray, Ed Oliver, Quinnen Williams, and even some of the WR prospects, but you're still talking about a guy with the potential to be an all-pro pass rusher, and non-medically-influenced floor is higher than anybody else.
2. Clelin Ferrell, Clemson
Ferrell falls in the category of being consistently good for too long in college. He's put mulitple years of high-end DE play on tape and now people are having trouble imagining him evolving into any more than a really good defensive end. I think he fires off the snap better than anyone in this class. As much as I like him, I can see the dilemma. Would you be happy if your team drafted a Carlos Dunlap-level player in the first round? I'd say yes. How high would you be willing to take him if you knew that was probably his ceiling? I think his actual ceiling might be higher than that, but I've played around with my mock draft and I'm having trouble pulling the trigger in the 10 to 12 range. I wouldn't fault anyone taking him there, but it would be a little bit of an "okay we'll see" shoulder shrug.
3. Montez Sweat, Mississippi
That brings us to our higher ceiling but lower floor prospects. Sweat had great college production and backed it up with impressive combine numbers. The pass-rush upside is a little higher, but the difference isn't significant enough to make up for the drop off in run defense and the slightly higher bust potential.
4. Brian Burns, Florida State
People are all over the map on Burns including an analyst I trust who ranks him as the best edge guy ahead of Bosa. Burns is lightning quick, but there are concerns about his lean frame. I'm not sure you can plug him in for three downs unless he beefs up a little. A lot of people project him as having Aldon Smith potential (minus the off-field problems). I thought he beat a lot of people with his first couple of steps but often lacked the power to capitalize. He might develop into a more well-rounded player, but I'd rather bet on the three guys I have ahead of him. Still, he'll make a fine top 20 pick.
5. Rashan Gary, Michigan
Gary has the athletic abiltiy at 280 lbs. to be a star, but he hasn't really proved it on the field yet. I saw flashes of it watching him play, but not enough to trust him in the top 15. Some people are projecting him as a DT, but I'd rather see him stick to DE.
6. Chase Winovich, Michigan
Less talent than Gary with better production. Winovich has a high motor and a knack for finding his way to the ball. He'll make some team picking in the last 10 picks of the first round very happy.
Edge
1. Josh Allen, Kentucky
I posted this article and then realized a day later that I forgot to include Josh Allen among the defensive prospects. He definitely needs in the discussion, but I'm not as high on him as everyone else. He has great college production, but I think he'll be a good but not great as a pro. I see him as purely a 3-4 player. . I don't think he'll hold up if you try to play him at DE, and although he looked good on tape running downfield with TE's he doesn't quite have good enough movement skills to be successful as a 4-3 LB. Hopefully somebody snaps him up as a 3-4 OLB.
DT
1. Quinnen Williams, Alabama
Williams has the size, strength, and quickness to give offenses fits against the run and pass. He's not quite as sure of a thing as someone like Ndamukong Suh coming out, but he's well-worth a top 5 pick.
2. Ed Oliver, Houston
Undersized DT with elite athletic skill that shines through clearly watching his college games. His size and skill set draws everyone's mind to Aaron Donald, but no one is willing to mention there names in the same sentence without apologizing profusely with the caveat that Oliver is not Aaron Donald. I don't disagree, but in a way the knee jerk to avoid comparing Oliver to Donald has led to Oliver being undervalued. Until recently people have projected Oliver towards the middle of the first round. In a class that is relatively light on sure-fire top 5 talent, Oliver is clearly a top five pick for me.
3. Christian Wilkins, Clemson
I've seen Wilkins mocked anywhere from 9 to 32. I think the real answer is right about in the middle of that range. Wilkins is big and athletic enough to play 3 downs. He penetrates well to make plays against the run and pass, but if O-linemen are able to engage him he sometimes struggles to hold his ground. I worry this will turn into a bigger problem against NFL talent. The Clemson DT'S remind me of a couple of years ago when Alabama had the two big DT's, Jarran Reed and A'shawn Robinson. Both were clearly good, but it was hard to tell how good. The NFL ended up taking them in the second round. Both have had some success in the league. Maybe they should have gone a little higher, but nothing drastic. Wilkins might be the best player of the four. I'd take him in the 18 to 25 range.
4. Jeffery Simmons, Mississippi
Simmons is a top 12 talent that tore his ACL in pre-draft training. Teams already hesitant on Simmons due to an off-field incident before college might wait to snap him up until the second round, but watch out for New England at 32. If he were healthy with no red flags, I'd slot him third in this DT class behind Oliver. Like Williams, he's a two-way interior player who can hold up against the run and wreak havoc against the pass.
5. Dexter Lawrence, Clemson
Lawrence has more size to occupy blockers inside, but less pass rush potential than anyone ahead of him on this list. He's not merely a run stuffer by any means, but there's not enough pass rush upside to elevate him much higher than the mid 20's for me.
LB
1. Devin White, LSU
White has drawn plenty of hype for his college play and his speedy combine numbers have only fueled the fire. There haven't been too many mocks slotting him outside the top 12. That's too rich for my blood. He's good enough to start right away, but I don't think his talent level is high enough to transcend positional value. Once he sees the play, he attacks and makes a lot of plays in the backfield against the run and the pass. I just saw too many instances where he read the play too slow or misdiagnosed and got washed out of the play. He needs protection up front. If o-linemen get to the second level he struggles to hold his ground or shed and get to the ball. That's true for many linebackers, but not the ones I'm comfortable taking in the top 10 (even in a draft class not brimming with top 10 talent). I wouldn't take him ahead of the top pass rushers, receivers, or OT's. Wait until the 15 to 20 range.
2. Devin Bush, Michigan
Bush is slightly smaller and slightly less athletic than White. I'd actually say his instincts are a little better than White's. White makes a few more splash plays. Bush roams the second level a little better. I'd still give the slight nod to White, but Bush five or ten picks later is probably better value.
CB
1. Byron Murphy, Washington
Undersized players who test on the slow side don't usually get first round consideration. That just speaks to how solid Murphy plays in coverage. He'll fall a little further than a normal CB1, but somewhere in the second half of the first round is likely.
2. Greedy Williams, LSU
Williams is a better athlete than Murphy and looked impressive covering some of this years's top receiving talent. Ego, attitude, and arrogance also jumped off the screen in his game tape. That's not necessarily a negative for many positions including corner, but in this case it seemed to lead to concentration lapses and inconsistent play. Williams might still go in the first round, but some teams may just decide he's not worth the trouble.
S
1. Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, Florida
Twitchy player with great instincts and awesome closing speed. Gardner-Johnson is a free safety with the versatility to hold up in man coverage.
2. Darnell Savage, Maryland
Athletic safety that reads plays quickly and gets to the ball in a hurry. Sometimes he's a little too aggressive and gets out of position, but once if he's surrounded by better talent, hopefully he won't feel like he has to do it all and he'll reign in his decision-making a little. If he played for Alabama, I think he'd be a top 15 pick.
3. Nasir Adderley, Delaware
Well-rounded playmaker. Looks athletic against small school competition. We'll see if he holds up in the pros.
4. Johnathan Abram, Mississippi St.
More of a thumper with some coverage skills.
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