1. Kyler Murray, Oklahoma
Murray is the clear #1 player in this class for me. He's no sure thing, but quarterback is two to five times more important than any other position and Murray has the potential to be a top 10 quarterback in the league. The running ability isn't quite as good as Lamar Jackson, but he's a much better passer. He has a good arm. Anticipation and ability to read the field is the most important QB trait for me. It's hard to say how good he is in those areas, but he showed enough to at least check those boxes as not a concern. He runs a lot. He'll have to reign in those instincts a little. His running ability can and should serve as a potent weapon in whatever offense he plays in and he's good at avoiding hits, but when the best player on your team is 5'10" and scrawny I don't think you want him getting 10+ carries per game. There were a couple plays in college games where D-linemen were only able to get one hand on him with their arm fully extended and they pulled him down like a rag doll. That gives me pause, but I think he has a chance to be successful with the way quarterbacks are protected these days. He showed plenty of ability to scramble and throw on the run. People bristle when you compare prospects to elite players, but you see shades of Russel Wilson here and there. It feels like a lazy comparison, but it's there.
2. Daniel Jones, Duke
I'm on a little bit of an island on this one. A lot of analysts I trust have bashed Jones pretty hard, but I think there might be something here. Everyone agrees he is big and athletic. When you start discussing his accuracy and downfield throwing ability, my opinion diverges from the norm. I see a guy with a strong ability to process the play as it unfolds and make quick accurate decisions with the football. I think he is really strong throwing short to intermediate routes. He doesn't have a rocket arm, but he can push the ball downfield. He has decent deep accuarcy. Not great. Not elite. But solid. Above average. Rewatching some of his games I see more of his warts, but my initial gut reaction was that he can play. Think Andy Dalton 2.0 with better physical traits or very rich man's Ryan Tannehill with better processing skills. I'm not sure about plugging him in day one, but I see starter potential. Others see a guy overhyped for his protypical size with a mediocre arm and bad accuracy. We'll see who's right! I'm excited to see how it plays out.
3. Drew Lock, Missouri
Lock is a late riser for me. The first couple games I watched I almost threw up. I thought he was almost undraftable. Then I got to some of the games later in the year and he won me over a little bit. He played particularly well against Florida. He comes across as a golden boy type of quarterback: Tall, athletic, strong arm.. I have no idea what color his hair is, but I picture it as blonde. Still, when the crap hits the fan I'm not sure he's going to do too well off-script. Some games he looks like he doesn't know how to throw the ball. Other times he looks Mitch Trubisky-ish.. not that that's super high praise, but you're at least talking about a prosepct taken in the top five. I'd lean towards the mid to late second round for Lock. Let someone else take the risk if they want to take him higher.
4. Dwayne Haskins, Ohio State
Haskins has drawn a lot of high praise, so maybe my expectations were a little too high going in. I was startled by his lack of deep accuracy. He made a nice deep throw in the TCU game early in the year, but beyond that he seemed to have area code accuracy on anything more than 15 yards down the field. The Purdue game was frightening. He looked like he couldn't handle pressure and he couldn't process fast enough. His lack of mobility is a concern. I don't know if I'd count on him developing into a starter. I wouldn't take him before the third round.
5. Will Grier, West Virginia
Feisty player. Never shows fear. He has some starter potential, but he has kind of a low ceiling. I think he has some physical limitations. He's accurate deep down the field, but he looks like a kid trying to throw a football that's too big for him. His vibe reminds me of Jake Delhomme or maybe Case Keenum.
RB
1. Josh Jacobs, Alabama
He didn't run the fastest but he shows burst on his tape. He catches the ball well, and has an unbelievable ability to deliver punishment to defenders. He weighed in at 220 and he plays like it, but he looks much leaner on the field. Much like Hockenson at TE, Jacobs gets a big bump due to his blocking ability compared to other prospects at his position. Everyone raves about his character. He might sneak into the first round, but I'd slot him more in the 35 to 40 range.
WR
1. D.K. Metcalf, Mississippi
Beyond the top 2 or 3 prospects, this draft class might be best defined by the polarization surrounding just about everyone else, and Metcalf is one of the headliners. If you're worried about Metcalf's injuries that's one thing, but I don't think his lack of college production is a problem. He has shown he needs to sharpen his rout running skills, but that's not necessarily an indictment on Metcalf. Think of it from Ole Miss's perspective. You have a hundred 18 to 22 year-olds and you need to win football games in the SEC. Are you going to undertake the process of meticulously sculpting this piece of granite into a finely tuned wide receiving ninja? Or are you going to send the incredible hulk screaming up the field every play to occupy the other team's best athletes while you spray the ball relentlessly underneath to A.J. Brown? It's not a surprise Mississippi opted for option 2. Metcalf showed enough ability on comeback routs and outs to prove he's capable of becoming more refined, but worst case scenario he can reprise his Mississippi role using his eye-popping size and speed off the line of scrimmage (1.45 S 10-yard-split on his 40 time- holy crap!). Best case? Well, with a little luck you might end up with Terrell Owens. He's worth the risk in my book.
2. Hakeem Butler, Iowa State
Big receivers have taken a hit over the past few years, but they're back with a vengeance in this class. Butler measures in at 6'5" 227 lbs. and ran a 4.48 at the combine. Butler uses his size well and makes plays down field, but my favorite trait is just how smooth he looks for such a big player.
3. Marquise Brown, Oklahoma
Brown's foot injury and his size are holding his draft stock down, but playmakers have high end value in this league. I still like him as a Rd 1 pick.
4. A.J. Brown, Mississippi
He's showed his value as a slot receiver. Will teams take a chance on him as an outside WR? After about pick 20, I say yes. His floor as a slot guy is fairly high. Best case, you get a weapon all over the field.
5. Miles Boykin, Notre Dame
I liked Boykin when I watched him. He didn't look overly explosive in the games I watched, but his testing showed rare atlheticism (43.5" vertical, 140" broad jump) and the on-field production was definitely there. I jumped him up ahead of the next few guys purely based on ceiling.
6. Deebo Samuel, South Carolina
Tough smaller target that makes plays all over the field. I'm not totally confident his playmaking skills will translate against the elevated levels of defensive talent in the NFL, but somebody in the second round is going to take a chance to find out.
7. Kelvin Harmon, North Carolina State
Solid receiver who wins with rout running. I'm not sure he can be a WR1, but he'll likely be a fine WR2 for whoever takes him in the 50 to 60 range.
8. Paris Campbell, Ohio State
Campbell seems a little underrated in this class. He's got game breaking speed and he stood out in an offense full of weapons. I like his potential to develop into a reliable target.
9. N'keal Harry, Arizona State
He went to Arizona State! He's a sundevil mannn!.. Sorry, couldn't resist. Harry is a physical receiver that a lot of people have more highly rated than I do. Maybe I just need to watch more, but he just didn't look very fluid to me. His routs were clunky and he had a lot of wasted steps. A lot of people love him, but when i was going through my list everyone above him has at least one well-defined trait that they can hang there hats on that is strong enough to outweigh any of their shortcomings to make me feel comfortable that they can be a quality starting WR in the league. Campbells speed. Harmon's precision. Samuel's grit. Boykin's athleticism. Brown's cache in the middle of the field. M. Brown's deep play making ability. Butler's fluidity. Metcalf's combination of size and burst down the field.
TE
1. T.J. Hockenson, Iowa
The value of a blocking tight end with enough athleticism and receiving ability to get downfield and threaten the defense is underrated. Hockenson is getting hype in this draft class, but it always has to be spelled out as to why you should rank a guy like this really high. It adds so much versatility to any offensive scheme and it just feels like a lot of people don't quite grasp the full extent of it. He's no Rob Gronkowski, but he's still well worth a top 10 pick.
2. Noah Fant, Iowa
It's still crazy to me that one school has two elite prospects at the same position. I would take both of these guys in the top 10. Fant gets knocked for having less production than Hockenson, but I get the impression watching his games that it wasn't really his fault. Iowa's offense just looked really scatter-brained to me. They kept throwing to all of these different receivers and then they'd hit Fant on a play or two and it was like "whoa look at that guy." He can't block like Hockenson, but I wouldn't say he's a useless blocker. I'm not sure that it matters though. You want this guy running routs as much as possible. He has real Jimmy Graham potential (the good one that played with Drew Brees.. Not the one that tore up his knee and never seemed to recover).
3. Irv Smith, Alabama
I'm in on Smith too. He's another two-way tight end. He basically seemed like a less athletic version of Hockenson. I'd be surprised if he doesn't sneak into the back half of round 1.
OT
1. Jawann Taylor, Florida
Played RT at Florida. He looked physical in the run game and agile in the pass game. He's not a sure-fire hall of famer or anything, but he should start day 1. An OT starved league will gobble him up in the top 8 picks . Don't rule out top 5.
2. Andre Dillard, Washington State
Dillard's prospects require quite a bit of projection due to the lack of a pro-style rushing attack in the scheme he played in at Washington State, but he showed off enough size and speed in his pass blocking that I think he'll develop quickly into a starting LT.
3. Cody Ford, Oklahoma
Some project Ford as a G, but he looked pretty good at RT to me. He's solid. I don't think I'd project a high ceiling for him, but I think teams will find it hard to pass up on him based on need.
4. Jonah Williams, Alabama
Some like Williams in the top 10. He's a hair behind these other guys to me, but he's still a top 20 prospect. He can pass block and run block, but he doesn't seem to hold up to power rushers quite as well and wasn't as effective moving defenders in the running game as Ford and Taylor.
5. Dalton Risner, Kansas State
Risner looks physically imposing on the field, and you can see a nasty mean streak in his game. That considered, I wonder if he has a functional strength problem. I was surprised how many times I saw him load up to lay into a defender and get stymied.
G/C
1. Garrett Bradbury, North Carolina State
Bradbury is the one guy I've watched a little bit. He's expected to be a plug and play starting center in the league. Look for him to come off the board in the 12 to 20 range.
I haven't really watched anyone else closely in this group, but here are some of the names that have been bubbling to the surface late in the process as late day 1 early day 2 prospects.
Elgton Jenkins, G Mississippi St.
Erik McCoy, C Texas A&M
Chris Lindstrom, G Boston College
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