The 2020 season was disappointing for Cincinnati but as a long time Bengals fan, I learned early on to shake it off and look forward to April! The 2021 NFL draft is right around the corner and it's time to get a feel for the landscape. As always, the place to start is the quarterback position. With a strong class this year the market has been extra heated so far and the QB starved teams have been jockeying for position all winter and spring. The expectation is for teams to select QB's with the top three picks. Four in the first four picks is possible and five in the top five is even in play. Here’s how I view this year’s quarterback prospects and what people are saying about them.
Day 1 Starters:
- Trevor Lawerence, Clemson
Lawrence is the man in this class but maybe not for the reason you think. He has been considered a sure-thing-number-one-overall-franchise-savior since he crashed Alabama’s national championship parade as a true freshman. I’ve mulled it over and over and I’ve come to the conclusion that yes, he’s good, but we should probably hold off on the parade to Canton for now.
He’s 6’6” with a lean frame (but not too skinny) with toughness and no durability concerns. He’s not a folk hero when it comes to arm strength but he has a strong arm with no limitations. Lamar Jackson shouldn’t be concerned about any of his QB rushing records, but Lawerence has the athleticism to consistently gain yardage on designed runs or scrambles and to break one for a long score (see Ohio State in the 2019 Playoffs). He appears to be a high-end well-respected leader that I have no doubt will seize the reigns as the face of a franchise right away.
So what’s the catch? It comes down to the two true gatekeeper traits to elite status for any quarterback: accuracy and decision making.
Let’s be clear Lawrence is by no means majorly deficient in either category. While he doesn’t have pinpoint precision, he delivers the ball where it needs to go accurately enough to be successful. His ability to read the field and react quickly is a little more murky. For one, the infrastructure at Clemson makes it hard to tell one way or the other. You can watch game film on him for 10 minutes and feel like every pass play was either a QB run or a throw to the first read. He flashes plays where he scans and reads the field but he also has plays where he locks up and just scrambles or makes a throw he shouldn’t. In between everything is within structure so what is actually going to happen when the training wheels are taken off?
Add up all of the traits and I’d be shocked if he’s not a top 15 quarterback in the league. That doesn’t sound impressive but you’d be surprised how few prospects can boast that claim. Will he consistently be a top 5 QB? I say no. He’s just a little too streaky processing the field. I think he will be... good. But just good. He might have the highest floor of anyone I can remember. That makes him worth the top pick but doesn’t necessarily mean he’s going to dominate the league.
2. Justin Fields, Ohio State
Fields is the clear cut QB2 to me and he’s closer to Lawerence than most are giving him credit. He’s faster and more accurate than Lawerence. The one question mark is his processing skills. I don’t think it’s a major flaw. It’s not like he makes a ton of bad throws due to not properly assessing risk, and it’s not like he never makes anticipatory throws. He just holds on to the ball a little too long sometimes when the play breaks down and a WR breaks free. Let’s calm down the panic in a weird year where the preseason was submarined and lineups were constantly in flux. It’s not enough to make me shy away, but it would keep me from taking him ahead of a more sure thing. Unfortunately, people seem to be shying away. Some have reported that unnamed team sources have divulged they see Fields as a day thee prospect. Really? What did the scout that told you that look like? A giant nose, a bushy mustache, with big black-rimmed glasses and his name was Phil Shmellichick? The Jets, the 49ers, the Falcons, the Lions, the Panthers, and the Broncos would all be crazy to pass on Fields and that’s only looking at teams in the top 10.
Day 1 Starter with Risk:
3. Zach Wilson, BYU
Taking in the 2020 BYU offense was fun. Intoxicating even. So much so, I think people are getting a little too hyped up on Wilson slotting him in as the consensus option for the Jets at pick 2. A gutsy prospect with decent size and athleticism in the gunslinger mold, Wilson feels like he is what everyone wants Baker Mayfield to be. His games seem like a constant barrage of Mahommesian arm angles and Frantic improvisation. Wilson plays with brash confidence but seems to be able to manage it to the point of avoiding crossing the line into harmful recklessness... at the college level against a schedule headlined by Coastal Carolina who BYU lost to behind a mostly sluggish offense. Can Wilson harness the chaos of his style into a successful NFL career? Is he The gritty football junky full of moxy that gets projected in T.V. broadcasts or something lesser that tends to crumble under professional pressure? He’s had shoulder and hand surgeries in the last two years. Is there any long term risk?
Assuming teams do their homework and are comfortable with his personality, he’s definitely a top prospect. I just can’t hold him up there with Fields and Lawrence.
Developmental Starter:
4. Trey Lance, North Dakota St.
The thing I keep struggling with on Lance: if I watched him with no hype or prior knowledge, would I still rank him this high? I’ve hemmed and hawed and the answer I’ve come up with is yes. Either way, consensus opinion, while sometimes dangerous, can occasionally pull you in the right direction. My thing is, are teams really going to sign up for Lance in the top 5? I have no problem with the philosophy that you take a guy that you like wherever you think that you can get him and then wait to start him until he’s ready, but most franchises don’t operate that way. If they take Lance early, he’s going to start in year one. That considered, 2021 is going to be a wild ride for whoever takes the plunge. People are lauding his potential as a passer, but I have a hard time seeing his talent throwing the ball as more than an unknown commodity. Yes, he has passing production in his game tape, but ask me to find examples of completions when there is a defender within five yards of the receiver and I’m going to take a while to get back to you. Can he figure where to throw the ball when there isn’t a giant plate glass window to throw through? If he does figure it out can he deliver the ball through whatever port window might exist? His athleticism is tantalizing but in a Cam Newton truck sort of way rather than a Lamar Jackson Ferrari way. I don’t see Lance as a markedly better prospect than Jordan Love last year and everyone lost their mind when Green Bay took him in the 20’s. Yes, those complaints were more about Aaron Rodgers than Love, but no one was pounding the table for Love in the top ten either. Is Love truly a lesser prospect or did Love just look worse because he was evaluated leading Utah State playing teams like 2019 LSU and Lance’s toughest game was against James Madison. Much like Love last year, I fully support teams taking developmental QB’s anywhere on the draft board as long as they don’t succumb to external pressure as to what they do or don’t have to do in terms of developing him. Think outside the box. Tell everyone up front: Look he’s a valuable member to our franchise’s success. We’re going to start him in two to five games in year one. We’ll pick when those games occur and go from there.
Backup Fodder:
5. Mac Jones, Alabama
I tried and tried to find someone else for this five slot but I couldn’t do it. Kyle Trask came close, but in the end Jones looks like he’s better at the most important skill in the sport: processing the field and deciding when and where to throw the ball. Is he really better or are his decisions just easier because he has has two top ten caliber receivers, other future first round porospect receivers, a bada$$ running back, multiple draftable O-lineman, and a high end OC scheming it all up? I’m not sure, but I think it’s a little bit of both. He’s not the statue some have portrayed him as but he’s not going to blow anyone away with mobility or arm strength. Overall, he’s fine. The biggest question for me is accuracy. On the surface it doesn’t seem like a problem, but don’t forget he’s getting more time to process, running better designed plays, throwing to alien-arms Devonta Smith and rocket-booster-implanted-in-his-butt Jaylen Waddle. When i watch a little closer I see his targets twisting and adjusting to find the ball. It’s subtle because the studs he’s throwing to are so &@?! smooth. He has ballpark accuracy and i think it’s enough to limit him when throwing into tighter windows at the next level. People have not only talked him up as a first round prospect but there’s buzz teams are targeting him in the top 5. I’m confused why Zach Wilson is getting buzz at 2 over Fields. If San Francisco traded up to three for Jones I would throw up and then start weeping for 49ers fans, (as a Bengals fan, a group of people I have no sympathy for). Jones is a backup level player.
6. Peyton Ramsey, Northwestern
It’s time to announce my Tyler Huntley/ Daniel Jones memorial award for the player that I’m way higher on than most people. Even knowing he went to Elder high school, I still like him. Ramsey started at Indiana where he Was beat out by someone more athletic. After an injury to his replacement in 2019, Ramsey was pressed back into service and performed admirably. In 2020 he transferred to Northwestern. There were some ups and downs. I wouldn’t ignore it, but transferring to a new team in such a strange year with limited practice I’m willing to overlook a few warts when he’s pressing to try to make something happen while trailing. His arm strength might limit him some, but he’s a gritty leader that knows where and when to throw the ball. He has a good feel for the pocket and can escape when he needs to. Some have compared Mac Jones to Tom Brady. Let’s calm down on that. Ramsey on the other hand.. just kidding I won’t go there. Brady’s presence and drive might never be equaled. Ramsey is nowhere close on arm talent either. But the ability to read and diagnose is hard to deny. Swap Ramsey onto Alabama and I find it hard to believe he doesn’t get the same hype Jones is getting.
7. Kyle Trask, Florida
Based on what I saw last year I came in thinking Trask might be a candidate to sneak into the first round discussion. I dug through the the 2020 footage and the upside just isn’t there. The floor is a college player trying to play in the pros that just can’t hack it. He’s a bulkier kid. The arm strength is just so so. His accuracy is pretty decent, but he has lapses in his decision making. Some of it is similar to what I mentioned above with Ramsey where Trask is in a shootout trying to keep up with an Alabama offense that is humming and he made some mistakes trying to force the issue. Then there are other times he just tries to stick with the play design like a screen or a slant when the defense has it figured out and he just doesn’t sense the danger. By all rights Trask should be above Ramsey, but for me I don’t see a path to Trask as much more than a capable backup that only starts in an emergency situation while with Ramsey there’s a sliver of hope that he blossoms into something more. That’s not the end of the world for Trask. There is value to having a reliable QB2. It seems more and more teams are starting to see that and might consider adding guys like this as early as day 2.
8. Davis Mills, Stanford
Looks the part. Makes a lot of nice accurate throws. A few to his team. A few to the other team. And the rest of the time Stanford is trying to run the ball. Take him on day 3, stick him in a real offense, try to harness his decision making and maybe in a few years you have something.
Do Teams Still Carry Three QB’s?
9. Jamie Newman, Wake Forest
Opted out last year. Has a nice frame. Flashes some series where he makes some nice throws, but then he gets into a funk and sputters for a while. It might partly be Wake Forest, but it seemed like something was missing. His processing power seems a little off? I can’t quite put my finger in it. He might be worth a flyer to find out.
10. K.J. Costello, Mississippi St
It’s jarring when you’re watching game cut ups of a guy and then he takes a monster shot to the head, the guy goes rigid on The field and the video just ends. Costello has had multiple head injuries that probably should give everyone pause (including himself). If he continues his career, he’s has prototypical size and showed some potential at Stanford. In 2020 he transferred to Miss. St. to play for Mike Leach. He lit up LSU in game one then everyone started sitting on the short crossing routs. Costello short circuited and the Bulldog’s season went up in flames. He’s worth a look based on talent, but health concerns might cause me to look elsewhere.
Practice Squad Fodder
11. Ian Book, Notre Dame
At first glance Book is a guy moving around making things happen. Then you feel like you’ve watched the same play 40 times in a row. Drop back. Scramble. Scramble. Run or throw medium accuracy pass or throw it away. Either Notre Dame has a receiving corps that never gets open or Book can’t read the field. Scrappy guy though. Plays with heart.
12. Sam Ehlinger, Texas
Speaking of scrappy guys that play with heart. Any hints of a Texas football revival has been willed by Ehlinger. Probably not enough tools to make any waves in the NFL, but might be able to hang around for a minute.
13. Brady White, Memphis
He didn’t do anything to wow me or drastically disappoint me. He deserves a shot at a roster spot somewhere.
St. Louis Battlehawks Future Stars
14. Kellen Mond, Texas A&M
15. Felipe Franks, Arkansas
16. Zac Thomas, Appalachian State
You Made a Nice Run at It but Time to Hang It Up Boys
17. Shane Buechele, SMU
18. Brady Davis, Illinois
19. Zach Smith, Tulsa
As a Zach, at first I was excited looking at the QB prospects for this year. Yes!! Look at all these Zach’s! Then I watched Smith and thought ohhh nooooo. We need fewer Zach’s.
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