I included some of these notes in my mock draft and i already posted my QB takes, but with the season about to start i just want to circle back around to the draft (one more time!) to empty out my notebook. I focused a lot on the offensive skill guys and i want to get my thoughts out there before these guys officially go out and prove me wrong.
If you’re not interested in the details, here are the scorchers that are most likely to make me look dumb in the next few months / years:
1. Jaxon Smith Njigba should not have been a first round pick.
1a. And the second to last WR taken in this class (Ronnie Bell) will be better than the first WR taken (Smith Njigba)!
2. This one goes back to the QB post…Bryce Young’s lack of athleticism Will hinder him as an NFL player more than his size.
3. Bijan Robinson is RB2 in this class.. and maybe RB3.
Here are my notes. This is not an all inclusive list of everyone, but just rankings and comments on the guys i was able to watch and write up along with a few comments added on landing spots.
The rating scale goes from 1 to 8 with 1.0 being a franchise starter worthy of the number one overall pick and 8.0 being an undraftable player.
Running Backs
1.8 Jahmyr Gibbs Alabama RSO Height: 5'11" Weight: 200
Nice combo of speed with enough size to run tough yards. Great receiver. Can and will deliver explosive plays. Versatility is the key here. He has the skill set to allow an offense to present one look and attack from all angles: inside, outside, short, deep.
Gibbs should be home perfect for an ascending offense in Detroit that couldn’t quite get everything they wanted out of D’Andre Swift. If OC Ben Johnson is the wizard that all of the football hipsters think he is, Gibbs could provide fireworks as a rookie.
2.0 Bijan Robinson Texas JR Height: 6'0" Weight: 221
Big power back. Breaks tackles and has speed but elusiveness leaves me wanting more. Soft hands and flashes athleticism adjusting to the ball in the air. He’s everyone’s top RB with rd 1 potential, but i question if he’ll be able to create enough explosive plays at the pro level to justify that kind of investment. He seems like he needs a hole. He’s not going to force the issue. He’ll turn 3 yards into 7 yards which is a nice weapon to have, but if he’s going to break one he needs his blocking to win big or the defense to screw up. He reminds me of Joe Mixon with better receiving skills.
Arthur Smith’s offense seems like a great place for Robinson to be but will he get enough work to justify the first round price tag he’s commanding in fantasy drafts? Some are arguing he should go number one overall even. I think they are imagining the absolute best possible outcome for Robinson’s career and projecting it into year 1. It is possible, but not as likely as the hype would have you believe considering the coach (who seems to be taking the mantle as the guy who seems to hate fantasy managers the most!), the quarterback, and the abundance of other viable weapons competing for touches.
2.1 Devon Achane Texas A&M JR Height: 5'8" Weight: 185
Watching him play I would have guessed he’s 6’ 210 lbs. Finds the holes, hits them quick and makes people miss to get downfield. Good contact balance but often doesn’t need it because he’s so difficult to tackle 1:1. He sometimes gets tracked down on longer runs. I wouldn’t have guessed he had 4.3 speed, but the more you watch it shows up.
It’s rare for players to flourish in significant roles at his size. Who knows if it will work, but there couldn’t be a better place than Miami’s offense to find out!
2.9 Tyjae Spears Tulane JR Height: 5'11" Weight: 195
Shifty back. Wiry frame, but packs a surprising punch. Saw lots of huge holes and punishes teams for it. Evades the first defender with ease and bursts into the second level with speed.. not enough to run away from defenders, but he’ll make it deep downfield. Runs inside and outside and makes people miss even in tight spaces running up the middle. I was wondering if his explosive runs were inflated by the level of competition, but then i found the USC game and he absolutely tortured them. Kansas St. gave him a little more trouble, but he wasn’t seeing much daylight. He got stoned a few times but he still was able to get some push on some dead runs. Seeing an 195 lb. guy push a pile and squirt through for a few yards is impressive.
3.8 Kendre Miller TCU JR Height: 6'0" Weight: 220
Watching Miller, i thought he had a bowling ball build..Turns out i was kind of right, only he isn’t 5’9” 200, he’s 6’ 220.
He has more juice and urgency when he runs than you would expect from such a big back. He has the physicality and the contact balance to carry the load around the line of scrimmage and enough speed to break long runs.
3.9 Zach Charbonnet UCLA SR Height: 6'1" Weight: 220
Big back measurables but runs like a smaller back (in a good way).. still maintains physicality but has quickness and doesn’t look stiff. Another get what’s blocked guy ( new draft term: GWB). Solid all around, but not going to hit home runs.
4.0 Hunter Luepke North Dakota St
Height: 6'1" Weight: 230
Not a dynamic runner but athletic enough to run and catch to snatch up whatever yards are available. He played fullback in college, but played all over and should attract interest based on his blocking alone. Competent pass protecting backs are an underrated commodity in the league. Think about how Samaje Perine stuck around as the Bengals’ 3rd down back for so long and why they were trying to bring him back again. Watching games, NDSU runs plays where he lines up as a FB and sprints forward off the snap as a lead blocker and streaks down the field on a go rout. It’s like play action on steroids. Just imagine what the 49ers are going to do when they get their hands on this guy.. they can finally stop spending so much money on Kyle Juszczyk. Every time i think about him i bump his value up a notch.
Luepke went undrafted. Chances are i’m not seeing something all 32 teams missed, but i still think he can play a valuable role if he gets a chance. The Cowboys signed him and he made the 53 man roster so there’s still hope! Pollard is coming off a broken leg and has never carried a heavy load. Deuce Vaughn is tiny. Rico Dawdle is .. well, i’ve never heard of him. Watch out for Luepke! Opportunities are lurking.
4.4 Zach Evans Ole Miss JR Height: 5'11" Weight: 212.
A little raw, but he’s got some juice. He runs with power and breaks tackles. One play i saw he was running to the edge and came into a cluster of defenders trying to coral him. Evans put on a burst and crashed into the group so violently they all fell down like bowling pins, but he kept his balance and kept running.
I forgot about Evans when i was writing my post about the Bengals draft class. He could be a nice find for the Rams in the sixth round.
4.5 Chase Brown Illinois JR Height: 5'11" Weight: 205
Nice all around weapon. Inside, outside, receiving.. Not enough juice to threaten as a primary or secondary weapon in an offense, but will fit in as someone’s pesky third or fourth option.
4.6 Israel Abanikanda Pitt JR Height: 5'11" Weight: 215
Has burst. Punishes defenses if they leave a hole, but needs an opening. Often doesn’t survive contact.
5.2 DeWayne McBride UAB JR Height: 5'11" Weight: 215
Nice wiggle evading defenders. Runs a little impatient. Hits hole in a hurry always.. sometimes he should let the play breathe a little.
5.3 Sean Tucker Syracuse JR Height: 5'10" Weight: 209 5.3
Decent size. Will get what is blocked then bounce wide for more. Not sure if the extra yards will be there at the next level. Might just be a competent grinder. Not a home run hitter.
5.3 Keaton Mitchell East Carolina JR
Height: 5'9" Weight: 175
Short, light shifty back with sub 4.4 speed. Likes to bounce everything outside but can get to the edge and pay dividends. Not going to give you much running inside.
5.3 Eric Gray Oklahoma RJR Height: 5'9" Weight: 206
Good instincts and vision. Has a spin move that works. Not as lethal, powerful, or elusive as some of these other guys, but he’ll execute, find whatever yards are there and sometimes give you a few more.
5.5 SaRoderick Thompson Texas Tech RSO Height: 5'10" Weight: 207
Tough to spot how he’ll be outside of a college pass heavy offense. Flashes vision and athleticism but didn’t test well. Worth a day three flyer. I think there’s something there but can’t tell for sure.
5.5 Deuce Vaughn Kansas State JR Height: 5'6" Weight: 17
Where do you rank a 5’5” 175 lb running back? Obviously his workload is going to be limited, but his quickness and elite agility are going to fit into some offense. In mid day three the risk becomes minimal vs. the potential reward of a coverage linebacker’s nightmare.
6.0 Kenny McIntosh Georgia RJR Height: 6'0" Weight: 210
Fluid, esthetically pleasing runner. Not much creativity to his game. He cuts upfield and it’s there and he looks like a stallion galloping through a field. Or it isn’t there and it looks like a glue factory.
6.1 Tiyon Evans Louisville JR
Height: 5'11 Weight: 210
Has some breakaway speed but doesn’t do much besides hit the hole.
6.2 Chris Rodriguez Jr. Kentucky RSR Height: 5'11" Weight: 224
Battering ram. Tell him where the hole is and he’ll hit it hard. Textbook TWG guy.
6.4 Roschon Johnson Texas SR Height: 6'2" Weight: 222
Big TWG guy. Not as powerful as you’d like, but he’ll make you work. Draftniks love him as a talented runner with size who is a good receiver and pass protects well. If only he wasn’t stuck behind Bijan Robinson at Texas he…blah blah. I don’t see the the playmaking ability others are lauding. Take a late round flyer to see if the pass protecting skills are real, but there are other swings to take that look way more promising to me.
6.4 Mohamed Ibrahim Minnesota RSR Height: 5'10" Weight: 210
Runs with heart. Finds holes. Violent. Delivers contact. Tough to tackle. Not explosive.
7.1 Tavion Thomas Utah RJR Height: 6'1" Weight: 221
7.3 Camerun Peoples Appalachian State RSR Height: 6'2" Weight: 225 7.3
Big hammer. Tries to smash his way to whatever yards he can get and eventually breaks through and romps down the field for a big gain in the second half. He probably isn’t big or fast enough to make that style work in the pros. If Derek Henry was a demigod, Peoples would be like a large mortal trying to pull off the same feats.
7.6 Deneric Prince
Tulsa
SR
Height: 6'0" Weight: 219
Nice burst coming through the hole, but needs a decent opening to get through.
7.8 Tank Bigsby Auburn JR Height: 6'0" Weight: 208
Taller lean frame. Aggressively hits holes, but doesn’t typically burst through.
He has some some preseason hype with the Jaguars, but i’m still not buying it.
7.8 Travis Dye USC RSR Height: 5'10" Weight: 200 7.8
7.8 Evan Hull Northwestern JR Height: 5'11" Weight: 210 7.9
A little frisky but not a ton of upside.
Wide Receivers:
1.9 Jalin Hyatt Tennessee JR
Height: 6'0" Weight: 185
I would have guessed he was 6’2” 190, but his actual measurables make me pause a little. Play strength is my biggest concern. Can he fight through the bigger stronger corners he’ll see next year? Tennessee even lined him up in stacks sometimes to seemingly shield him from press coverage. He has some work to do, but if he fills out watch out. He’s a speedster with a nose for the end zone. He measured 4.40 at the combine but watching him run by SEC DB’s game after game, i suspect he’s even faster than that. His stat line vs. Alabama made me chuckle: 6 catches for 207 yards and 5 touchdowns. He’s not just a deep threat though. His route running is a little unpolished but he flashes enough short to intermediate production i’m confident in the right hands someone can transform him from an intriguing talent into an absolute beast.
2.1 Josh Downs North Carolina JR Height: 5'10" Weight: 171
Downs feels more like what people want Jordan Addison to be. Similar size. More juice. Not electric, but crisper routes. Enough speed to threaten deep, but most of his highlights last year were in the short to intermediate range.
2.5 Quentin Johnston TCU JR Height: 6'3" Weight: 201
Outstanding frame. Looks the part of a stud WR. Sometimes he flashes like he can play like one too, but not enough to make me think he is going to pop at the next level. Line him up as a secondary weapon? Okay, maybe now you have something.
2.7 Jordan Addison USC JR
Height: 6'0" Weight: 175
A lot of slim dudes in this WR class! Addison has some hype, but i think if you try to make him your WR1 you’re going to be disappointed. Silky smooth routes, but not devastating. Has speed and quickness, but not devastating. Overall his movement skills just don’t make up for his lack of physicality. Don’t totally sleep on him though. If the league thinks like me and he falls into day 2, he could thrive as somebody’s WR2.
Addison didn’t fall to day two, but he couldn’t have landed in much of a better spot than being asked to fill the WR 2 spot opposite Justin Jefferson.
3.2 Zay Flowers Boston College SR 5’9” 182
Reminds me of when people we’re getting a little too excited about Elijah Moore. Smaller guy with some speed and agility that makes all kinds of plays on a college football field. Flowers is better than Moore. He’s fluid and his playmaking all around seems stronger. At the very least Flowers has more grit. I like him as a piece to an offense, but people are going a little over the top likening him to Steve Smith, the grit king. Yeah, the measurables are similar, but Smith was a unicorn. I didn’t see enough from Flowers to make me think he can be a WR1 let alone a Tasmanian devil tornado-like destructive force like Smith.
3.2 Ronnie Bell Michigan RSR Height: 6'0" Weight: 192
My heart says 2.5, but my brain is holding me back. 3.2 is a little aggressive still if you listen to the consensus from analysts. Bell is just an exciting player to watch. He’s shifty with the ball in his hands with great vision and almost always makes one man miss. If he doesn’t get a few more yards than he’s supposed to, it’s because he got hit as he’s catching the ball. He’s a heady route runner and takes an “over my dead body approach” when the ball is in the air. His detractors would say he doesn’t have enough juice to translate his game to the next level. I say settle down. He ran 4.54. He won’t be cracking off 60 yards of RAC at a time, but he definitely meets the threshold of what it take to be successful in the league(for reference Tyler Boyd ran 4.58). His instincts and ability to see defenders coming from all angles will more than make up for the lack of explosive speed. I even have some hope Bell’s athleticism will tick up a notch next year as he distances himself further from his 2021 ACL surgery. If he attacks training the way he bulldogs each and every play that he’s on the field, he might surprise some people.
3.4 15 138 Trey Palmer Nebraska RJR Height: 6'1" Weight: 190
Speedster with an extra gear. Scarcity might push Palmer up the board a little. This class has a glut of intermediate range weapons, but it is short on true deep threats. Palmer isn’t a technician but he flashes the ingredients to develop into a potent target at all levels.
3.5 Jayden Reed Michigan State Sr 6’0” 185 lbs
Seems to get lost in the shuffle, but i get the feeling it is more of a Michigan State problem than any issue with his talent. I had to go back to 2021 to find more production. He can excel at all levels of the field and shows playmaking ability as a return man.
3.5 Tyler Scott JR 5’10” 177
Lack of size might prevent him from ever being a primary weapon in an offense but i’m pretty confident he can excel as a tertiary or even secondary option. He has enough speed to threaten deep and the agility and body control to punish teams short if they give him a cushion.
3.6 Jaxon Smith-Njigba Ohio State JR
Height: 6'0" Weight: 198
Sorry Buckeye fans, Smith-Njigba is not a 1st round dude for me. He had some nice production as a slot man with Chris Olave and Garret Wilson lined up outside, but going back and watching some of those games i don’t see the juice. I would almost describe his gait as lumbering. Then he missed most of 2022 with a hamstring injury. I would be squeamish knowing that even if i had liked him before. Now i’m just out on him as having much more than WR3 upside.
I went into more detail in my mock draft post, but i can’t understand why people are penciling in Smith-Njigba to have significant impact as a legit weapon long-term. Yet, people are assuming he’s going to move the needle immediately. Fantasy redraft leagues? No thanks. Dynasty? Hard pass.
The one thing that gives me pause is how well his skill set fits in with what Seattle’s personnel. If you’re asking the guy to be the fourth weapon in the offense.. okay maybe that’s a role he can fill. Seems rich to invest the 20th pick in the draft to fill that roster void, but whatever. If they’re expecting Smith-Njigba to step into more of a primary role as Lockett ages out, i think they’re making a mistake.
4.1 Tank Dell Houston RSR Height: 5'8" Weight: 165
Jitterbug slot receiver that’s goes by “Tank”. I love it. Twitchy short area quickness that has to be valuable in some offense. Has speed to threaten deep, but not enough to neutralize his size disadvantage in contested catch situations or his limited catch radius. How much can you feature an 165 lb. dude and how much do you invest in a guy you can’t feature?
Guys like this are why picking Smith-Njigba in the first is silly.
4.2 Xavier Hutchinson Iowa State RSR Height: 6'3" Weight: 210
Big NFL frame, but runs smooth routes. I don’t think he can develop into a monster that is going to terrorize defenses downfield, but as a short to intermediate possession receiver he has some potential. Makes some great catches but also has inexplicable drops.
4.5 Jonathan Mingo Ole Miss RJR
Height: 6'2" Weight: 225
Kind of a sleeper prospect. Big NFL body but already carries it well enough that you’d think he were smaller watching his athleticism. Has the tools, but kind of gets lost in the offense. Is it him or is there some hidden gem potential lurking there? I’d take a flyer early day 3 to find out.
4.5 Marvin Mims Oklahoma JR Height: 5'11" Weight: 177
Has decent measurables, but the 4.38 40 only seems to mildly translate to the field. Not a crafty WR. If the secondary leaves him open and it isn’t a contested catch situation he makes a play
5.5 Rashee Rice SMU RJR Height: 6'2" Weight: 206
Solid possession receiver. Makes physical contested catches. Not sure his athleticism will allow him to get open enough to be a WR2
5.7 A.T. Perry Wake Forest RJR
Height: 6'4" Weight: 206
Physical possession receiver with juuust enough speed to go long, but doesn’t play up to 4.45 speed. Stiff routes.
6.1 Parker Washington Penn State JR Height: 5'10" Weight: 207
Useful slot WR. Breaks tackles. Not enough speed or size to feature.
6.5 Cedric Tillman Tennessee RSR Height: 6'2" Weight: 215 6.5
Possession guy. Rigid. Limited speed
Usually, i have two receivers every year that i get mixed up which names go with which players. Back in the day it was Martavis Bryant and Davante Adams. Now This year it’s Tillman, Mims, and Mingo. Coincidentally i also seem way lower on all three than consensus and the league so we’ll see how it plays out.
6.6 Kayshon Boutte LSU jr 6’0 190
Short to intermediate maven. Gets open quick, but not enough speed to threaten deep. Line him up in the slot and watch him work.
7.5 Rakim Jarrett Maryland JR Height: 6'0" Weight: 190
Excess college stats can be a red herring but Lack of production is usually a red flag. Has some tools, but doesn’t flash much.
Tight Ends:
1.8 Dalton Kincaid Utah SR Height: 6'4" Weight: 242
Not a zero as a blocker and more juice getting downfield than the guys below. No good timing data available on Kincaid. He sustained an injury late in the year and passed on combine prep. Don’t worry. The juice meter has it. He’s fast.
1.9 Darnell Washington Georgia JR Height: 6'7" Weight: 261
I’ll talk further down about one guy that looks like a power forward and one guy that looks half OT. Washington is somehow 80% OT and 80% power forward. Is he athletic enough to get open in the pros? Does it matter? He’s 6’7”. He should be able sit down in the middle of the field and box out whoever tries to guard him (And with a 4.64 40 at that size, he’s not going to be a zero trying to get downfield. It’s tantalizing waiting another year for the other Georgia TE, Bowers, but Washington isn’t a bad appetizer.
I’ve said it before, but this landing spot was a gut punch. We don’t see the medicals, so maybe the rest of the league will be proven correct, but did it have to be the Steelers that ended up taking the chance on him?
2.6 Michael Mayer Notre Dame JR Height: 6'5" Weight: 251
Heralded two way tight end that set records at Notre Dame. Most people have him ranked as the top TE. I think he’s a tick below that. He can block but he isn’t as big and physical as Washington. He’s a more polished receiver, but he looks like he has less juice and his testing numbers back it up. Has versatility to block in line while providing a crafty option on short to intermediate routes with sticky hands..
2.8 Sam LaPorta Iowa SR Height: 6'4" Weight: 249
3.99 Tucker Kraft South Dakota State RJR Height: 6'5" Weight: 255 3.99
I do not understand the physics of watching Tucker Kraft and Luke Musgrave back to back. They are supposedly only separated by 1” and a few lbs. Yet, Musgrave looks like he could play for the Cavs (and not in a Glenn Davis kind of way) while Kraft looks like he is a half-offensive-tackle- half-tight end-tank-man. Kraft gets open downfield and plows through helpless DB’s when he catches the ball. The perk is not only does he look like an OT if you kind of squint he blocks like one too. I question if his athleticism will hold up once he gets outside of 1AA competition and into the league, but his combine numbers indicate he might at least hang in there.
4.1 Luke Musgrave Oregon State RJR
Height: 6'6" Weight: 252
Tall enough to carry 250 lbs and still look like a tall lean power forward with a helmet on. He moves a little stiff, but he actually displays respectable athleticism getting off the line and into his routes with surprising speed. A 4.6 40 with a 36” vertical at his size back it up. Struggles getting leverage blocking.
Let the Games Begin!
That’s all i’ve got on this year’s class. It will be fun to finally see some regular season pro reps on these guys to see which of my takes fly high and which ones crash and burn. Some will play out quick. Some will take years to come to a final verdict. Happy start of the season!
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