2023 NFL Season: Futile Forecast

 2023 Season

The start of week 3! Not the best time for a season preview, but we’re going to go ahead and roll with it. In fairness most of this was written before week 1. It has been a fiery start.. like the flaming wreckage kind.  Some of my predictions are good for a chuckle already. The one about Aaron Rodgers’ alien abduction died faster than any (Tease!  If that doesn’t get you to keep reading i don’t know what will)! Bengals fans might be more disappointed than anyone. I figured the  0-2 start  was coming, but the reaggrevated calf strain in week 2 with a few weeks of Jake Browning staring us in the face is was even more than a pessimist like me could envision. 

Most people will have to wait five months to see how the season will play out. My loyal readers will find out now! Or judging by my previous previous predictions they’ll at least know what NOT to expect. Here is my 2023 NFL Season outlook. 

AFC North

Cincinnati 11-6

The Bengals hit the under on 11.5 here, but still scrap together a successful season despite a barrage of obstacles along the way. 

This is it: The pivot point on what they’ve been building to since day 1 of the Zac Taylor era. 

Sure there’s hope the stars develop more and Duke Tobin works enough magic to keep the roster strong, but they have more resources now to build around the core than they will at any point in the future. This is their best chance. 

The unrelenting wave of free agency will hit next year. The rare continuity of the coaching staff will start to crumble (Laboratory Lou, it has been a pleasure. We’re going to miss you). And with Joe Burrow’s mega deal now written in blood, the % of the salary cap they have to make it all work will never be as high as now.

There has never been a better time to predict the Bengals to take home the Lombardi, but (spoiler alert) i just can’t do it. I’ve seen too many if only’s, what if’s, and what might have been’s with this team not to see 10 more waiting around every corner. Too many inopportune torn ligaments, missed extra points, tragically-timed personal fouls, inexplicable officiating, quirky play calls, haunting dropped interceptions, and unconventional coin flips. This team has experienced it all.  The thought of catching all of the breaks that even a talented team needs to win it all feels too much like wish casting. 

Be prepared, i’m expecting bad things to start the year in Cleveland. It’s always a nightmare in that stadium. Taylor has fully embraced the strategy of treating the season like a marathon. The end of the year is more important than the beginning. Start slow and make it work. Stay as fresh as possible for week 18 and beyond.

Burrow’s streak of circumstantially missing training camp continues. Going against Bengals DB’s in practice is helpful, but familiarity sets in and the first go at live unfamiliar defenses requires acclimation and adjustment. 

They’ll scrap together another 3-3 year against the Ravens, Steelers, and Browns, but do enough elsewhere to take home the AFC North crown a third consecutive year for the first time in the history of the division. 

I have the Bengals at:

 3-1 against the the NFC West

What do we have to do to beat those darn 49ers??

3-1 against the NFC South

Shaky road Jaguars game after facing Baltimore and Pittsburgh in back to back weeks.

 2 of 3 in the extra games

They own the Vikings, Burrow reclaims Burrowhead at KC, and Buffalo extracts revenge in an eerie return to Cincinnati in prime time. 

Pittsburgh 10-7

This feels a little bandwagony, but Steelers demons are another thing i just can’t exorcise. If they look like they are going to be scrappy they are going to be scrappy.

Baltimore 9-7

Lamar Jackson and Todd Monken generate some fireworks, but not enough to overcome their star-crossed receiver and DB groups. 

Cleveland 6-11

It seems like they have too much talent not to challenge for a division title, but there are still too many weird vibes in Cleveland. They can’t catch a break and another regime crumbles.

AFC South

Tennessee 11-6

Nobody knows how they do it, but Mike Vrabel’s blood pact with the devil continues helping him spin gold out of yarn to churn out underdog wins.

Jacksonville 11-6

The ascending Jaguars keep it rolling making the playoffs two years in a row. 

Houston 8-9

My division winner predictions ended up a little chalky, but i think there will be some surprises in the bottom half of the league. Many have forecasted that the Texans trading their 2024 first round pick to the Cardinals might hand the Cardinals the first two picks in the draft next year. I think the frisky Texans won’t let that happen.

Indianapolis 5-12

High highs and low lows for rookie QB Anthony Richardson. Erratic passing and shaky defense dooms the Colts.

AFC East

Buffalo 11-6

Did the Bills miss their window or do they soar just when people started to write them off as a contender?  I think Both the offense and the defense had circumstantial setbacks last year and both units come back stronger.

Miami 11-6

The Mike McDaniel revolution continues. Repeat last year with better injury luck.

New England 9-8

Crusty hard defense and competent offense rebounds the Patriots back into the playoff hunt, but they just barely miss out in the end.

New York Jets 8-8

The nasty defense gets nicked up as the year goes and falters down the stretch. They have a chance at a winning record, but one game gets canceled mid season after Aaron Rodgers gets abducted by aliens on game day. A few days later he’s found naked next to the freeway. He starts the following week and throws for 8 touchdowns.

AFC West

Kansas City 12-5

Many analysts anointed the Chiefs in preseason as the clear cut favorite, but the shaky week 1 performance has everyone jumping ship already. I made the mistake of dogging them last year. After what i saw Thursday, pencil them into first place until Mahommes declines. 

Los Angeles Chargers 9–8

I had intentions of predicting this would be the year the Chargers realize their potential and go on a playoff run. Somehow when i added everything up they still missed the playoffs. The Chargers are gonna charger.. even in hypothetical scenarios.

Las Vegas 6-11

Vegas success was one of last year’s biggest fails amongst my bold predictions. I’m probably swinging too far back the other way, but the Josh McDaniels regime feels tenuous at best… As does counting on Jimmy Garoppolo for a full season with a rookie backup. 

Denver 3-14

Logic says Russell Wilson should rebound a little with a stronger coaching staff. It’s hard to believe his ability could drop off THAT much this quickly. 

There was this moment during one of the prime time flops last year. Heading into halftime the broadcast went to a camera in the tunnel while everyone was walking to the locker room. Wilson walks up and stops at the door and turns around and tries to high five everyone as they walk by and his teammates just sort of half heartedly reach their hands out as they pass.

 I can’t shake that sad image out of my head. Denver stumbles and Sean Peyton jumps off the Russ Bus as soon as he can.

NFC North

Green Bay 9-8

This is my logjam division.  Any of the four teams could win if they catch the right breaks, but Green Bay and Detroit have more depth in place. The young gun Packers do enough and Matt LaFleur shines being finally free of his Aaron Rodgers shackles.

Detroit 9-8

The Lions can hold their own against the big guns in the league, but it seems like they’re still a weapon short.

Chicago 8-9

Improvement, but not ready for showtime yet. 

Minnesota 8-9

Minnesota feels caught between trying to contend and rebuilding. 

NFC South

New Orleans 11-6

Hard to believe landing Derek Carr could swing the Saints the division title, but they now have the best NFC South quarterback with an already solid supporting cast.

Atlanta 8-8-1

The Falcons went the other direction thinking they could harness their backup QB into a serviceable starter.  They can get away with it against the bottom half of the league but not the top and they finish even-steven.

Carolina 4-13

Can Carolina Bryce and dice their way out of the AFC south cellar? Defensively there’s an argument to be made, but the shaky offensive line i expected last year looks like they finally showed up.

Tampa Bay 3-13-1

It’s hard to imagine the Buccaneers finishing this poorly with the amount of talent left on the roster, but it’s also hard to imagine anything but doom with Baker Mayfield plus a deteriorating offensive line.

NFC East

Dallas 11-6

The Cowboys defense could be nasty but most people look at Mike McCarthy taking more control on offense and they can’t stomach big Dallas predictions. McCarthy won’t set the world on fire but it will be less of a disaster than people think. 

Philadelphia 10-7 

10-7 isn’t exactly a year from he$& type of season, but with the number of things that clicked into place last year, the Eagles will take a step back on the execution front in 2023.  

New York Giants 9-8

The roster isn’t there yet, but the Giants hang around and sneak into the playoffs on a tiebreaker

Washington 8-9

Stout defense and a blossoming group of offensive weapons keep the Commanders solid, but they’re stuck at frisky status until they find a better QB solution.

NFC West

San Francisco 11-6

The 49ers are loaded and look like they are going to stuff the league into a trash can until the Brock Purdy fairy dust runs out (..Again) and George Kittle, Christian Mccaffery, Deebo Samuel, and Nick Bosa get hurt like they always do.

Seattle 10-7

Solid core in place to repeat success but they didn’t do anything to move the needle any further. 

Arizona 6-11

Hard to believe 6 wins is a hot take, but most pundits sound like they would take the under on the Cardinals to take home 3 games. The assumption is that they’ll chain Kyler Murray to the sideline as long as possible, replace him with the top draft pick they earn in the process, and ship him to the highest bidder.

I think Murray returns in week 5 with a chip on his shoulder and transforms Arizona from projected punching bag into a feisty pest. 

Los Angeles Rams 4-13

Can the grizzled veterans stay strong enough to lead this rag tag group to a respectable season. I’m betting no. 

Playoffs??!!

NFC

1 Dallas

2 San Francisco

3 New Orleans

4 Green Bay

5 Philadelphia 

6 Seattle 

7 New York Giants

Wild card weekend is full of upsets. The 49ers QB curse continues and they shockingly fall to the 7th seeded Giants.  

The Saints go down against the 6th seeded Seahawks.

The Eagles are favored but win against the technically  higher seeded Packers.

The Cowboys flop again in the divisional round against a Giants team determined to avenge the two regular season massacres they suffered at the hands of Dallas. 

The Eagles are licking their chops with the top two seeds out of the way, but Seattle comes out hot and holds on for yet another upset. 

The country is riveted by the thrilling Daniel Jones vs. Geno Smith showdown. The teams battle back and forth but Danny Dollars shows up and cashes in for a Super Bowl trip to Vegas.

AFC 

1 Kansas City

2 Buffalo

3  Cincinnati 

4 Tennessee 

5 Miami

6 Jacksonville

7 Pittsburgh 

The big guns hold up better in the AFC.

Buffalo dismisses Pittsburgh. Cincy sends the Jaguars back to the 

drawing board and Miami takes down Tennessee.

The one seed again goes 1 and done as the Dolphins go into Arrowhead and show the Chiefs why it’s useful to keep star receivers around.

Our Cincinnati magic sadly runs out. Predictably the pieces don’t all fall into place in a make or break year for the franchise and we’re all left wondering if it will ever happen. Buffalo makes up for last year’s home flop against the Bengals on a cold rainy day in Orchard Park. 

AFC East foes duel for conference supremacy. The electric Dolphins offense once again freezes in the western New York cold setting up an all New York Super Bowl.

 The Giants’ Cinderella 7th seed story ends in disaster. Buffalo doesn’t seem like the likeliest heavyweight to come out on top in September, but it’s a long season. 

There’s one thing that almost always comes true. The landscape at the end of the year always looks different than the beginning. The Bills flip a switch in December and power themselves to their first title.

I can’t wait to see how it all plays out. Enjoy!