2010 Mock Draft

It’s crunch time! The NFL’s first prime time draft is only hours away. Here’s my guess at how things will shake out for the first round tonight.

1. St. Louis:

The Rams put their cards on the table early. They don’t think they can pass on the QB here. They’ve started doing homework on other players lately, but I’m guessing it’s more being done for negotiation purposes or in response to trade inquiries. For the record, I still think they should draft the best player available, but they seem to think Bradford is a franchise player.

The Pick: Sam Bradford, QB Oklahoma

2. Detroit:

Finally, the city of Detroit catches a break. St. Louis couldn’t stomach paying $40 million to a DT and the Lions now have a rock to build their defense around. There has been some Suh vs. McCoy debate, but Suh has the edge in my book.

The Pick: Ndamukong Suh, DT Nebraska

3. Tampa Bay:

Gerald McCoy is the consensus here. A pass rushing defensive tackle is just what the Dr. ordered for the retooling Tampa defense.

The Pick: Gerald McCoy, DT Oklahoma

4. Washington:

The Redskins need O-line. I had them taking an OT before it became apparent Bradford would be gone and before they acquired Donovan McNabb. With the top QB off the board and their quarterback need temporarily filled, now it is even more of a no-brainer.

The Pick: Russel Okung, OT Oklahoma State

5. Kansas City:
(Wow, look at those Big 12 players go. I’m getting tired of typing Oklahoma, so I will not be projecting the Chiefs to take Trent Williams or Dez Bryant or Jermaine Gresham) This is where things get interesting. Eric Berry is the best player available. The Chiefs have a need for a safety. Will GM Scott Pioli pull the trigger on a top 5 safety? Better yet, did he learn his lesson about drafting need over value after the lackluster pick of Tyson Jackson third overall last year? I’m guessing no.

The Pick: Brian Bulaga, OT Iowa

6. Seattle:
Here’s where I go off the beaten path a little bit. Most people see Seattle addressing offensive line needs here. Patrick Kerney retired. They traded Daryl Tapp. I’m not sure defensive end isn’t the more pressing need. The way this league drools over pass rushers, it surprises me Derrick Morgan isn’t getting more play in the top 10. He has the size. He defends well against the run and the pass. People might call this a reach, but I think it’s a good move for Seattle to go with Morgan. However, Cleveland sitting right behind them is eying Berry. I’m going to predict Cleveland floats Seattle one of their third round picks to swap places, and the Browns end up picking here.

The Pick: Eric Berry, S Tennessee (to Cleveland)

7. Cleveland:
Once again the Browns are sort of the pivot point of the top 10. Normally, I’d say when in doubt, take the best player available, but that doesn’t really make sense here. The Browns are playing a lot of games in the media commenting on whether or not they’d take a quarterback and dropping lines about trading for the first pick overall. I think they’re just trying to stir up trade discussion because they don’t want to draft in this slot. I don’t think they’ll find anyone who wants to swoop in to get Clausen, but Buffalo might want to move in front of Oakland to take an OT. On the flip side, I’m sure they’ll be calling K.C. and Seattle to find out the price of sliding into position to draft Berry. I can’t decide if I want the Chiefs to take Berry because I think he’s the right pick for them or if I just don’t want him to fall to the Browns. In this scenario, K.C. once again plays it conservative and Seattle bites on the trade to move back one slot to draft Morgan.

The Pick: Derrick Morgan, DE Geogia Tech (to Seattle)

8. Oakland:

It is always interesting when people try to predict the unpredictable. Trying to keep up with Oakland’s insatiable thirst for eye-popping combine athletes, a lot of people are predicting the Raiders will take the physical marvel from Maryland, Bruce Campbell. However, Trent Williams is the better prospect and his combine numbers weren’t that much different than the times and measurements put up by Campbell. Al Davis has been relatively tame this offseason. I’ll say he does the right thing here and fills his glaring OT need with the best player available.

The Pick: Trent Williams, OT Oklahoma

9. Buffalo:
Talk of Jimmy Clausen not sliding past Buffalo has cooled. I agree, let the free fall begin for the Notre Dame QB. Buffalo could go OT here, but the lone remaining top 10 talent, Anthony Davis, has maturity issues. Ditto on WR Dez Bryant. That’s okay though, it’s not like they don’t have plenty of other weaknesses to fill. Switching to a 3-4 defense, the Bills have some personnel adjustments to make. They can start by taking the draft’s top nose tackle.
The Pick: Dan Williams, DT Tennessee

10. Jacksonville:
The Jags have an embarrassing amount of options here. They might want to trade down just to make their decision easier. Some people are projecting C.J. Spiller here. Maybe I am biased because I’m a Maurice Jones-Drew fantasy owner, but I don’t see it. Their O-line is maturing. Their offense will get better. They need to revamp their defense. It’s too early for S Earl Thomas. Defensive end remains a question mark. I couldn’t fault them for taking Jason Pierre-Paul but I think needs at linebacker are more urgent. I haven’t really seen anyone talking Rolando McClain, but a fiery middle linebacker that can lead seems like good way for them to reclaim their defensive identity.

The Pick: Rolando McClain, MLB Alabama

11. Denver:
McClain or D. Williams are both being linked to Denver by various analysts, but neither is available here. With ties to Brandon Marshall severed, the glaring need is wide receiver. The Dez Bryant character issues are being blown out of proportion to some extent.

The Pick: Dez Bryant, WR Oklahoma State

12. Miami:
The Dolphins would love a nose tackle, but as the only first round caliber player available at the position, D. Williams isn’t going to last long. Spiller isn’t out of the question if the club is tired of the injury prone Ronnie Brown. Although, don’t forget they already used their second round pick to boost their offense in WR Brandon Marshall so I assume defense will get the nod here. Outside linebacker might be their greatest need, but this draft is rare in that it is missing the type of high-end hybrid DE/OLB player that usually seems to grow on trees in college football. I don’t think players like Jerry Hughes and Sergio Kindle start to come into play until somewhere past the 20th pick. However, with decent depth littered throughout later rounds for Bill Parcels to pursue like Ricky Sapp, Brandon Lang and Eric Norwood, they don’t need to panic. With some talented players starting to slide at this point (Spiller, Pierre-Paul, Thomas), they might even have some trade offers thrown their way. In the end, they could also use a rangy free safety that can hit to go along with the young corners they brought in last year.

The Pick: Earl Thomas, S Texas

13. San Francisco:
On to Clausen’s next possible landing spot. The 49ers are talking nice about him, but I don’t think they want to take a QB with either of their first round picks. They’d rather continue to fill holes in their offensive line and secondary. Anthony Davis might have the most potential of all the O-line prospects, but he has some growing up to do. Instead of gambling on a QB, San Fran grabs a talented guy to start at RT and will count on no-nonsense head coach Mike Singletary to whip the immaturity out of him.

The Pick: Anthony Davis, OT Rutgers

14. Seattle:
I have a gut feeling if Spiller is available, Pete Carroll will push for the dynamic young playmaker to start rebuilding his offense. Yet, my head is telling me that rebuilding starts with a foundation. Seattle’s offense hasn’t really been the same since starting guard, Steve Hutchinson, was ripped away by the Vikings. I really think Mike Iupati might be a similar type of player. They started reconstructing the D-line early. Now they move on to the O-line.

The Pick: Mike Iupati, G Idaho



15. New York Giants:
Rumors are swirling that Giants DE Osi Umenyiora is on the trading block and the Giants are prepared to replace him with South Florida’s Jason Pierre-Paul. Even if Umenyiora stays put, Pierre-Paul is an option as G.M. Jerry Reese has never been shy about adding extra pass rushers. Regardless of what the G-Men have planned, I don’t think they would have dreamed Spiller would fall right into their laps. Pierre-Paul has enough potential that going either way would be warranted, but Spiller would launch the Giant offense into places it has never been before. Their revamped receiving corps showed they have a chance to be special, but the offense went stale late in the year. Imagine plugging in an electric, multi-purpose runner/slot receiver/match-up nightmare that can be supplemented with a back-breaking thumper like Brandon Jacobs.

The Pick: C.J. Spiller, RB Clemson

16. Tennessee:
That rush of wind is the entire Titan organization exhaling that N.Y. passed on Pierre-Paul. They need a middle linebacker and a couple of upgrades for their secondary, but defensive line play has been their trademark. Pierre-Paul gives them the chance to rebuild around a silky smooth athlete whose inexperience might just be a curtain hiding his potential greatness.

The Pick: Jason Pierre-Paul, DE South Florida

17. San Francisco:

The Niners are back on the clock, and all eyes are back on Jimmy Clausen. San Fransisco would probably be a good fit for the California native, but bringing in a first round QB to go along with former number one overall pick, Alex Smith, is just a weird dynamic that I can’t quite picture. Assuming they don’t go quarterback here, San Fran will look for some defensive help. A safety would be nice. It’s a shame they just barely missed on Thomas with their first pick, but a CB will help too. They settle here for the draft’s best corner who probably didn’t deserve to fall this far. .

The Pick: Joe Haden, CB Florida

18. Pittsburgh:

Might the Steelers be in the market for a quarterback? Probably not. I can’t picture Clausen here either. Somebody better start up a collection for the kid. He’ll be waiting a few more picks. The Steelers need to start rebuilding their aging defensive line, but the team has lost its identity the past few years. What they really need is a rugged interior lineman that can play guard and center. I’ll give Mel Kiper credit. He started projecting this pick before anyone else.

The Pick: Maurkice Pouncey, G/C Florida

19. Atlanta:
Things start to get real mushy as far as how to rank prospects at this point so the Falcons have some flexibility here. They took care of their corner need in free agency and will probably move on to the defensive line. I’d call Brandon Graham the better prospect, but the Falcons might be enamored with the size and frame of Carlos Dunlap.

The Pick: Carlos Dunlap, DE Florida

20. Houston:
Atlanta’s gain is Houston’s loss. The Dunta Robinson signing that freed the Falcons to go hunting for a fierce DE forces Houston to shop around for DB’s here. It’s not a total disaster, there are a few to pick from and the value isn’t half bad.

The Pick: Kareem Jackson, CB Alabama

21. Cincinnati:

Okay Bengals fans. Strap yourselves in. Cincinnati’s top needs as I see them are as follows:
1. Tight End
2. #3 wide receiver
3. Pass rush (defensive end?)
4. Strong side linebacker
5. Nickel Corner
6. #4 defensive tackle

It doesn’t make sense to draft a CB in the first round with too highly paid corners already on the roster, and there isn’t any value at LB or DT with the 21st pick. Scratch those three off the list. Demaryius Thomas has the skill set they need at receiver. I just don’t know if they’ve seen enough to gamble on the guy. Considering the prospects they could find in the next two rounds, I’d say they hold off on wide receiver.

That leaves tight end and defensive end. Every year, the top tight end in the draft class starts out getting projected to start his career in Cincinnati. This might be the year it actually happens. There certainly hasn’t been a more talented tight end that the Bengals have passed on. Meanwhile, Marvin Lewis continues to harp on how much he thinks Chase Coffman will contribute to the offense this year. I can’t decide whether he’s just trying to dissuade someone from trading in front of them to take Jermaine Gresham or if he thinks he needs to prepare everyone for passing on what many people think is the missing piece to their offensive puzzle.

If Gresham is available and they think his knees are okay, he will be hard to pass up. The guy is a top ten talent. If they pass and they miss out on a tight end later, they are putting a lot of pressure on Coffman and a wide receiver group that is in transition. Taking Gresham gives them two top-notched receiving tight end prospects. That would allow them to mix the two in into their first pro games and would give them insurance if one or the other isn’t up to the task this season. They might even be able to get creative with two-tight-end sets where opposing defenses will have no idea how to set up coverage.

Unfortunately, New England might break the hearts of all in Bengaldom. Most think the Patriots will target an outside linebacker, but trying to add some juice back into their passing game is just as strong of a possibility. With Houston in the market for a corner that they can probably find trading back two slots behind the Bengals, it probably won’t take much for New England to coax a trade.

Having a team swoop in and steal a player Cincy was targeting would be disappointing, but it’s not the end of the world. If they miss out on Gresham, they have a shot to land a defensive player that can give them a lot of energy up front. Brandon Graham would be a guy that could move all over the formation. Is he a linebacker? Is he a defensive end? I don’t know but I’d like to see him do both. That might not seem like it should be a high priority for the Bengals, but one more gadget in Mike Zimmer’s utility belt is never a bad thing. It is bitter sweet because they would basically be re-drafting David Pollack, but it is what the defense is missing. They are better off grooming Michael Johnson as their next starting defensive end and using Graham as the utility guy. In other words, rotate Odom and Fanene on one side across from Geathers and Johnson on the other. Sprinkle Graham all over the formation depending on the situation and beat the snot out of people. Frostee Rucker goes on the bubble and the need to find a fourth DT goes up slightly. At tight end they can look for Rob Gronkowski (Arizona) or Dennis Pitta (BYU) in the second round or Anthony McCoy (USC), Aaron Hernandez (Florida), or Dorin Dickerson (Pittsburgh) in the third round.

What happens if both Gresham and Graham are gone? Dunlap is a player I projected earlier that might be available in that scenario. He is an upgrade from Graham on size and athleticism, but a downgrade on character and versatility. Someone like Jerry Hughes (TCU) would be more similar to Graham and could fill a similar role. I’m not big on Sergio Kindle (Texas) and he is more of an outside linebacker, but he would be an option. Everson Griffen is more raw than Graham and less athletic than Dunlap. Focusing on other positions, Demaryius Thomas comes back into play. I have Dez Bryant going high, but some think he will tumble all the way to Cincinnati. If so, I might even take him over Gresham. Taylor Mays could get a look, but I see him as more of a second round prospect. Lastly, you’d prefer to trade down if you’re going to take an outside linebacker, but Daryl Washington (TCU) and Sean Weatherspoon (Missouri) are options if the Bengals are in a pinch.

The Pick: Brandon Graham, DE Michigan

22. New England:
Alge Crumpler is more or less the only tight end on New England’s roster. They will be without Wes Welker for the beginning of the season. Tight end is a major need. A short-range, possession receiver is a major need. They get both if they trade up to get Gresham. If they go outside linebacker, they’ll look at Hughes and Graham.

The Pick: Jermaine Gresham, TE Oklahoma

23. Green Bay:
Offensive line help would be nice, but the Packers seem content to stick with what they’ve got for some reason. Aaron Kampman transitioning to linebacker in their new 3-4 defense didn’t work out too well and the Packers allowed him to leave through free-agency. Green Bay decides to ignore needs at CB and O-line to take a player that can start opposite Clay Matthews.

The Pick: Sergio Kindle, OLB Texas

24. Philadelphia:
With the twenty-fourth pick of the draft, the Philadelphia Eagles select…Jimmy Clausen??? Don’t laugh, it’s going to happen. Okay, maybe not quite like that, but I think this is where teams will start trying to trade back into the first round to pick up Clausen. Since Philly is in the business of supplying other teams with quarterbacks, why not project the trade here. I think Minnesota sees an opportunity to grab a QB of the future and fearing someone else might pull the trigger soon they decide to make a move. Brett Favre isn’t going to live forever and I’m not buying this, “Minnesota is happy with Tavaris Jackson” business. Less than a year ago, all you heard was the opposite.

The Pick: Jimmy Clausen, QB Notre Dame (To Minnesota)

25. Baltimore:
The Ravens have needs in their linebacking corps and could use a developmental wide receiver even with the Anquan Boldin acquisition. However, their biggest need might be at cornerback. Ladarius Webb was a solid pick last year, but a season-ending knee injury to their standout rookie once again leaves the Ravens needing DB’s.
The Pick: Kyle Wilson, CB Boise State

26. Arizona:
The Cardinals are in transition after losing two of their top three offensive players and one of their top defensive players in the offseason. They need an inside linebacker and a nose tackle, but they get the most bang for their buck here snagging Boldin’s future replacement.

The Pick: Demaryius Thomas, WR Georgia Tech

27. Dallas
Two seasons in a row the Cowboys barreled through the regular season and bowed out of the postseason because their offensive line was big and slow. It is time to replace Flozell the Hotel. They can look for their safety and nose tackle later.

The Pick: Charles Brown, OT USC

28. San Diego:
The Chargers divorced themselves from LaDainian Tomlinson, Jamal Williams, and Antonio Cromartie in the offseason and will consequently head into the draft looking for help at RB, NT, and CB. Not surprisingly, a lot of people assume they’ll reach for RB Ryan Mathews or NT Terrence Cody here. Don’t forget, the Chargers have some flexibility from having switched second round picks with the Seahawks when they shipped Charlie Whitehurst to Seattle. Not to mention, San Diego is a team that ignores need for value more consistently than anyone. Jared Odrick is a fierce defensive tackle that should transition nicely to 3-4 defensive end.

The Pick: Jared Odrick, DT Penn State

29. N.Y. Jets:
It has been a busy offseason for the Jets as they have methodically added veterans to their positions of need through trades and free agency. Nose tackle is one of their few holes left unfilled, but they won’t find one worth picking here. When in doubt, pick a pass rusher. Some are calling Jerry Hughes the most underrated prospect in the draft that could go as high as 12 to Miami.
The Pick: Jerry Hughes, OLB TCU

30. Minnesota:
The Eagles slashed the payroll in favor of youth this offseason. They’ve added linebacking help through trades and will have a chance to add offensive line depth later. Instead, Philly takes the opportunity to grab a defensive end to line up across from Trent Cole.
The Pick: Everson Griffen, DE USC (To Philadelphia)

31. Indianapolis:
The Colts need an upgrade at left tackle and should start looking for a center to replace Jeff Saturday, but their most glaring need last season might have been cornerback depth. Teams usually don’t worry too much about value at the bottom of the first round, but the Colts are able to pull it off here landing a corner that comes off the draft board at just about the right time.
The Pick: Devin McCourty, CB Rutgers

32. New Orleans:
The Saints pulled off a big win in the big game, but they have some work to do if they want to defend the crown. Their top need is outside linebacker and they actually have a couple to pick from here. TCU’s Daryl Washington and Missouri’s Sean Weatherspoon both could get the nod, but the latest buzz off the wire has Washington’s stock up and Weatherspoon’s stock down.
The Pick: Daryl Washington, LB TCU