End of an Era

After weeks of swirling rumors, the hatchet finally dropped. The Donovan McNabb era in Philadelphia is officially over. There has been an explosion of reaction to the trade that sent the former Philly star to Washington last week. Some Eagles fans are saying good riddance. Some are distraught. Some analysts understand the switch but don’t think they should have traded within the division. Others think it is a foolish move for Philly that only weakens their team. While I won’t go as far as to say, “McNabb is a bum. I’m glad he’s gone,” I like the trade. I think the Eagles took a calculated risk, and I could care less if they traded within the division. Here’s why:

Who’s the better player?

Fans who wanted to run McNabb out of town because of the past are wrong. However, the Eagles traded McNabb because of the future. They projected one to three years down the line and decided they were comfortable putting their eggs in Kevin Kolb’s basket with Michael Vick as an insurance policy. A lot of people don’t get it. Will McNabb be the better quarterback in 2010? They say yes. I say maybe. Every player has a window of opportunity. They come into the league on a learning curve, they peak and eventually they taper off. Kolb has not peaked. How high he will reach isn’t clear, but it would be hard to argue that he’s there yet. It is also hard to argue that McNabb has not peaked. The questions now become how fast will the two rise and fall respectively and when will they cross. The Eagles seem to be betting Kolb’s skills will eclipse McNabb’s sooner rather than later and I’m pretty sure they are in a better position to make that judgment than anyone else.

The big thing no one is talking about is injury history. Kolb has none. Throughout his career, McNabb has been beat up with groin, sports hernia, thumb, ACL and rib injuries. He used to take over games with his athleticism. Now he looks like a 20-year-old Buick chugging around the field and I cringe every time he gets tackled.

Sure, McNabb is certainly the better player on paper right now. He is a gritty 11-year veteran. He has continued to be an effective although streaky passer, he has an underrated deep ball, and, as the least intercepted per attempt quarterback in NFL history, he takes care of the football. Kolb has started two games. Despite speculation from some analysts, I don’t believe the trade is purely financial. The Eagles have had three years to evaluate Kolb. They are giving him the starting nod because they think he can play. The organization has been too strong over the past decade to think they are motivated otherwise. McNabb looks like the better starting candidate today, but what about tomorrow? Or the next day? Or the next? Between age and injury concerns, I’d put the probability closer to 60/40 in McNabb’s favor than the 100% certainty some people are talking. If you look more than one year down the road the probability swings overwhelmingly in Kolb’s favor as long as he takes over now and is given an entire season as the top QB this year including training camp, preseason and the regular season.

They traded him to the Redskins??

A lot of people can’t believe Philly made the deal with Washington, instantly upgrading one of their division rivals. What difference does it make? They decided to make the trade because McNabb has one year left on his contract and they think he probably isn’t going to win them a Super Bowl before he leaves. If they were that worried about McNabb instantly making the Redskins into a Super Bowl contender, they would have kept him. Maybe Washington catches lightning in a bottle, but chances are neither team will be able to win it all next year. What’s the worst case, the Redskins edge out the Eagles for a playoff spot? To me, Philly is saying, “we are tired of being really good. We want to be great.” So they are cutting ties with McNabb and are trying to line up the next guy so that his prime is in sync with their emerging young stars at WR, TE and RB. Regardless, on top of all McNabb’s physical baggage, it isn’t exactly a no-brainer to plug into a new system, in a new locker room, in a new city. It’s almost ironic that it’s Washington, the place where big-name free agents go to die, where McNabb will be trying to continue his career. If you look at the other side of the “McNabb will elevate the Redskins” coin, he could also serve as the Eagles’ own little Trojan horse to wreck the Redskins’ season if he breaks down mid-season.

So why not just ship McNabb off somewhere in the AFC? Everyone is making the assumption that Oakland and Buffalo had comparable offers on the table. The idea that Washington was best for Donovan sounds great, but I’m pretty sure they picked Washington because the Redskins were willing to give up more than anyone else. In a draft where the 37th player selected won’t be that much worse than the 20th player selected, a second round pick is nothing to sneeze at.

McNabb was an all-star player for most of the 11 years he was with the team. He was asked to carry the offense and was given little more than Brian Westbrook and a good, but not great, offensive line to do it. The one year he had an elite receiving target, he played like an elite quarterback. I’m sorry to see the guy go. He has always handled himself the right way on and off the field. On top of all that he’s been through, look no further than how he’s handled himself before and after this trade to judge McNabb’s character. It’s a far cry from Jay Cutler’s conduct last year that’s for sure. Regardless, it was time for both parties to move on. McNabb gets a shot at finishing his career as something more than a place holder. The Eagles get to see their heir apparent in action for a full season before they have to make a decision about a long-term contract while also acquiring fair compensation for McNabb. To me, it looks like a fair trade.