2011 Draft: For Starters

A black cloud of labor dispute looms over the NFL, but never fear, draft season will take place rain or shine. The Senior Bowl is complete, the Combine is gearing up, and pro days are right around the corner. It won’t be totally business as usual however as the escalating labor dispute between the owners and the players could significantly change draft dynamics and strategies. Once the current collective bargaining agreement expires on March 4, no player trades can be made. Perhaps the bigger impact will be the absence of free agency. Unable to shop around for free agents, coaches and GM’s won’t get their first opportunity to fill holes until the draft. At a glance you might think this will force teams to draft more for need than value, but it will likely have the opposite effect. Free agency might be late, it might be abbreviated, but it will happen eventually. With a less than clear picture of what 2011 rosters will look like, I think team decision makers are more likely to take the best players available and sort out the details later. Here’s a peek at the top ten landscape:

No Number 1?:

Ever since Andrew Luck took his name out of the ring, the 2011 draft class has been without an elite prospect. There is solid group of four or five players in the top tier, but the class lacks a no-brainer franchise quarterback or a position player that will immediately challenge for all-pro status. The top two candidates to go number 1 right now are Auburn DT Nick Fairley and Clemson DE Da’Quan Bowers. There was some over reaction to Fairley’s National Championship performance. Some analysts were throwing around names like Suh and Sapp for comparisons, but Fairley isn’t quite in that category. When those guys left school they were NFL players playing in college. Fairley is a great college player that will need to make the transition to the pros. I’d liken him closer to what I thought of Glenn Dorsey when he entered the league. That’s not to say Fairley’s career will turn out to be as ordinary as Dorsey’s has been, but I’d put them on the same starting plane. That being said, I give Fairley the nod right now. The Panthers are a lot worse off at DT than DE. I think you’d be hard pressed to come up with a team right now with less interior defensive line talent.

Next in Line in Denver?:

LSU CB Patrick Peterson will come into play here, but the Broncos will have trouble straying away from the defensive line. I’m not even going to pretend to know where the personnel pieces will land when new coach John Fox more than likely blows up the present scheme and switches Denver back to a 4-3, but based one this unit’s 2010 performance (31^st in the league in rushing yards against) they need new players. The return of injured star sack-man Elvis Dumervil will help the pass rush, but a 250 lb DE probably won’t help out the rush defense.

Bowers is a high-end prospect talented enough to build around. Some people gripe about his technique, but when you watch him he plays with high intensity, has great instincts (reacts to the ball well, sniffs out the play without thinking too much about it), and has the athletic ability to excel versus the run and the pass at the next level. So what if he plays a little too upright at times - John Fox can fix that.

To QB or not to QB?:

Will Buffalo do any more than flirt with taking a quarterback here? Some people are touting Missouri QB Blaine Gabbert as a candidate for the Bills. In the end, I don’t think Gabbert will be able to hold off Cam Newton as the top QB taken. I’ll get more into that later. For right now, let’s say the Bills decide not to pull the trigger on either one. Marcell Dareus (DT, Alabama) is another name that has come up for his potential as a 3-4 DE, but I don’t think he’s top 5 talent. (Besides, why draft a 3-4 DE in the top 5? That’s what rounds 3 through 7 are for.) This pick should be the most talented player in the class: Patrick Peterson. He’s big, he’s fast, and he has amazing ball skills. I would lobby for him in the top two, but D-linemen are more important than DB’s for rebuilding teams (DE’s and DT’s in 4-3 systems, OLB’s and NT’s in 3-4 defenses).

Sitting Pretty:

Here we are again. After a one year hiatus, it’s back to the top of the draft for Bengaldom. Before we get into draft prospects, let’s delve into what thus far has been an eventful off-season.

Marvin’s New Lieutenant:

First, the good news: I like the Jay Gruden hire. The offense needs a breath of fresh air. Make no mistake, this is a gamble. In five years we’ll probably be cursing the guy’s name and lumping him together with David Shula. Yet, for right now I’m optimistic that this was the right move and maybe Marvin Lewis has finally found the right coaching combination with the fourth and fifth coordinators of his tenure.

Carson Conundrum:

Maybe I should have seen it coming, but I was more or less blindsided by Carson Palmer waving the white flag on being the team’s franchise quarterback. His character and attitude have been a pillar for the organization throughout his career. Take that away and all of a sudden I start to wonder about things behind the scenes.

What it all means is unclear. The Bengals can hope Palmer is bluffing and intrigued enough by the infusion of new offensive blood into the team to give it one more shot, or they can try to strike a deal. Strangely, there are enough desperate teams at the free agent saloon drowning their sorrows fretting over their quarterback woes that even a player coming off a 20 interception season that comes struttin’ through the door doesn’t look half bad. The key would be to make a trade that wouldn’t send the team into a five year tailspin. That would mean going in one of two directions. Acquire a stop-gap in the deal, and draft a QB. Think Jason Campbell or Alex Smith in trades. Better yet, how about West Coast lifers Matt Hasselbeck or Donovan McNabb in free agency to mentor Newton or Gabbert. If they pass on a QB early, players like Andy Dalton (TCU) or Colin Kaepernick (Nevada) are potential later round targets. Alternatively, why not just trade for their next quarterback? Kevin Kolb anyone? Yes, that trade is impossible. Or is it? How about a three team deal? Cincy sends Carson Palmer to the 49ers, the Bengals land Kolb, and the Eagles acquire two early second round draft picks. The Bengals wind up with a young quarterback who is ready to start and has been groomed in a West Coast system (similar to the one they’ll be running next year). The 49ers get a veteran QB that can buy rookie coach Jim Harbaugh 2 to 4 years to get organized. The Eagles, said to be looking for a first and a third in exchange for Kolb, end up with two high second rounders. The Palmer family gets to move back to California. Kevin Kolb gets his shot to start. Everybody wins right? Oh yeah, the most stubborn man alive has vowed not to trade Palmer. And the Eagles need to keep Kolb as insurance for their crash-test-dummy superstar starting quarterback. And Harbaugh is already trying to butter up the fan base for the shock of bringing Alex Smith back for another year. And oh yeah, unless the players union and the owners give up their game of labor dispute chicken prior to the draft, no trades can happen anyway. It’s unfortunate because it makes SO much sense, but it looks like we are stuck with trying to avoid a messy divorce from Carson Palmer as our greatest hope.

Draft Outlook:

If you look past the possibility that Palmer might walk out the door without a viable replacement in place, the Bengals are actually in pretty good shape. For simplicity, let’s just leave out that nightmarish scenario for now. By my count there are four high-end prospects in this draft, and the Bengals conveniently have fourth pick. If Buffalo takes a quarterback, they’ll even have two of the four to pick from. What position are they likely to target? I think they have flexibility there (unless they are forced to take a quarterback). Their top need is guard, but that is irrelevant in the first round unless they trade down about fifteen slots. Past that, the lack of free agency prior to the draft takes effect and you start to lose focus. They need a defensive playmaker, a more durable safety, depth at strong side linebacker, a corner if they lose Johnathan Joseph, a receiver if they lose Chad Johnson, a running back if they lose Cedric Benson, and an OT if Andre Smith can’t get healthy. It sounds like a lot, but there aren’t a lot of dire needs there. Like I said, I think the strategy has to be draft the best players available more than you ever have before and then go after what you’re missing in free agency when it eventually happens.

The Bengals don’t really need Fairley, but he would be an upgrade over Tank Johnson and would round out the DT rotation in a division where you have to be strong up front. He might not be the defensive stud they crave, but having him in the middle certainly wouldn’t hurt the chances of Carlos Dunlap or Michael Johnson developing into that guy.

Bowers on the other hand does have some star potential. At the least, he would be just another weapon they can plug in. The NY Giants have proven it over and over again: you can never have too many pass rushers.

Peterson is intriguing. I think he has the greatest difference-making potential of the three, and the Bengals are the first team in the draft order with good enough talent up front to take advantage of it. He would be a nice insurance policy if they can’t resign Joseph, but he is still a good fit regardless because of his versatility. I say move him to safety and he has a chance to redefine the position at a time when arguably the two best safeties of all time (Polamalu and Reed) are still active players. He has the ball skills to terrorize QB’s in center field. He has the speed to blanket slot men. They could blitz him from the edge. They could blitz him up the middle. If he’s there, I’d love to see them pull the trigger.

If Peterson isn’t available and they think they are set on the D-line, the other major candidate is Georgia WR A.J. Green. Mock draft after mock draft have penciled Green in to Cincinnati assuming Chad Johnson is out the door, and I can’t say that I’d disagree with that line of thinking. Green and Simpson as outside receivers with Shipley and Caldwell as slot men seems like a nice well-rounded receiving corps to build on.

The wild card of course is Newton. The guy is dialed in and gaining momentum fast. I don’t really like him as a player and I’m even starting to have second thoughts as to whether the Bengals should pass on him. I just hope Buffalo snatches him up and makes the decision easy.

Best of the Rest:

Prince Amukamara (CB, Nebraska) gets an honorable mention for the group of top prospects and is at the front of the next tier down.

Marcell Dareus (DT, Alabama) joins him as a mauler with the ability to go 4-3 DT or 3-4 DE.

Texas A&M’s Von Miller and UNC’s Robert Quinn are hybrid DE’s that will most likely be targeted as 3-4 OLB’s. Some people are hyping Miller as high as number 3 to Buffalo, but I don’t see it. He has a quick first step, but watching some of his games, that’s his only pass rush move: run around the OT. He creates a massive lane for the quarterback to scramble through and gets smothered when he tries to go inside. It’s Aaron Maybin (two years in, still looking for his first NFL sack) all over again. Miller has more character and will be better in coverage and against the run than Maybin, but I don’t see his knack for pestering QB’s translating to the NFL. He actually looks like a 4-3 strong side linebacker more than anything else.

Quinn is coming off a year long NCAA suspension and no one is really sure what kind of player he’ll be right away. People drool over his athleticism, but I’m not sure if he’ll be physical enough to hold up the edge of a defense at the next level. Gaines Adams anyone? He seems like a 3-4 prospect, but he might actually be better off in a 4-3 with a team that likes undersized defensive ends.

Despite where they rank out as prospects, the top ten will likely be rounded out by the two quarterbacks. The battle for top QB will be an interesting race. Both players have to learn how to play outside of the spread offense. Both players have freakish size. Newton has more collegiate pelts on the wall and a slightly higher ceiling while Gabbert has fewer character questions. Gabbert makes me think of Matthew Stafford with more mobility, but a slightly lesser arm, less pedigree, and without the experience under center. Realistically, Gabbert probably grades out as a mid first round guy. However, in a draft that is a logjam of “very good” players with most of the teams picking early starved for QB talent, I’d be surprised if he makes it out of the top ten. Newton, on the other hand, is a shooting star. He has some poor character flags from early in his college career, but he has said and done all the right things ever since. A lackluster National Championship game slowed his momentum, but one unconventional media-only workout to display his NFL preparation efforts and he’s right back on track to climb up the draft ladder. He’s working with a QB coach six days a week and receiving tutelage from Hall of Fame quarterback Warren Moon. He has to convince teams he is more Josh Freeman than Vince Young and he’s doing a great job. Vince Young liked to tell people how good he was going to be. Cam Newton is talking about what he’s going to do to be good. Stay tuned.

With the fifth pick, Miller is getting some play, but I don’t see how the Cardinals can get away from taking a quarterback unless Newton is gone and they don’t like the value of Gabbert. Cleveland is sitting at six, hoping for Buffalo or Cincy to take a QB so they can get a crack at Green, the one glaring missing piece to their offensive puzzle (a part of me will cringe if the Bengals don’t pick Green knowing that he’ll fall right into Cleveland’s lap). The 49ers would be well served with a value pick of either Amukamara or Dareus. The Titans need a QB at eight and go for the Gabbert gamble while Dallas sits at nine and takes whoever San Francisco passes up. Washington feels left out in the cold and takes Miller as a value pick.

That’s all for now. Stay tuned for a full mock prior to draft day.

Playoff Madness

Playoff madness! All of the prognosticators speculating spastically has driven me crazy enough to wake up from blog hibernation! Playoff season kicks off today, and despite complaints about the Seahawks, top to bottom, the field seems to be as level this year as any other year I can remember. Let’s break it down.

Public opinion has penciled in the Saints and Ravens to round two, but personally, I think one of the home dogs are going to pull off the upset. The banged up Saints limping into one of the top home-field-advantage stadiums in the league against a team that everyone has written off might not be as clear cut as everyone thinks. I think the first half will be tight. In the end, Sean Payton is too good to be out-dueled by an inferior team in a win-or-go-home game.

That brings us to the mighty Ravens and their super defense against the happy-to-be-here Chiefs. Give me a break. Honestly, Baltimore has been hailed as a contender all season long and I don’t get it. Their quarterback is erratic. Their offensive line has taken a step backward this year. Their receivers don’t scare anyone anymore. Their defense is a shadow of their reputation. Why do they get so much love? Yes, I know they went 12-4. The thing is - Baltimore’s strength is their physicality. It sounds like a recipe for winning football games, but when you break it down they don’t have enough talent on either side of the ball to be considered elite. Everyone touts that stingy Ravens defense, but they are really a one-trick pony. They stop the run and hope you can’t sustain a drive long enough to score points. Their pass rush is non-existent (27th in the league in sacks) and their secondary is ordinary (19th in the league in yards/game). Haloti Ngata is the only player on their team playing at an elite level. Jarrett Johnson is good. Ray Lewis is playing well for a 35 year old linebacker, but there’s nothing spectacular here. They hit harder than anyone else and teams that aren’t ready for that level of intensity spend three quarters trying to work their way into the game. Familiar teams don’t have as much trouble. Baltimore needed five turnovers, a missed chip-shot field goal, and an incompletion deep in the red zone on the last play of the game to beat the lowly Bengals, a divisional opponent, last week. Not having played K.C. yet this year gives Baltimore the edge right? Well, maybe. The Chiefs are a young, hungry team playing the underdog role at home coming off a week where they were embarrassed by division rival Oakland. They just might be fired up enough to neutralize Baltimore’s advantage. Even if I’m wrong and they manage to defeat the Chiefs, Pittsburgh and New England have both seen Baltimore this year. They’ll be ready. I’d be surprised if the Ravens could beat either, let alone both of them. Baltimore’s Super Bowl chances are zilch.

The other two games could be tantalizingly close. Sexy Rexy tries to rally his troops against Peyton Manning’s MASH unit. The Colts are down, but so is the Jets D. I think Indy will run the ball better than expected. Manning wins at home.

Finally, can the Fantastic Mr. Vick carry the Eagles past the Pack? This is a tough first round match-up for both teams. I think Green Bay is the best all-around team in the NFC. Winning three road games to reach the Super Bowl will be a tall order, but if they manage to squeak by this one, I’d say they’re the team to beat. Vick is scary in the opening round off a week of rest, but I don’t see Philly as a Super Bowl contender. Their defense is being held together with duct tape at this point. Their hopes died when they blew the Minnesota game and let a potential first round bye slip away. There’s no way they can maneuver that D through three playoff teams without somebody lighting them up.

So where does that leave us for Super Bowl predictions? I don’t see both New England and Pittsburgh losing next week, and no one in the conference has the juice to run through both of them. It’ll be Patriots or Steelers in the AFC. I see the NFC as a four- team race. The Saints are a long shot due to health issues on both sides of the ball. No one is giving Chicago a chance, but they have home field unless they see Atlanta in the Championship game. I’d call them the dark horse. The Packers and the Falcons are the two most well rounded. I like Green Bay a little more, but Atlanta’s home field advantage puts them neck and neck. I’m going to go with Green Bay to pull off the improbable road win trifecta to beat Philly, Atlanta, and Chicago and make it to the Super Bowl for a showdown with Tom Brady and Co. The Patriots are peaking at the right time: Patriots over Packers 23-17.

2010 Mock Draft

It’s crunch time! The NFL’s first prime time draft is only hours away. Here’s my guess at how things will shake out for the first round tonight.

1. St. Louis:

The Rams put their cards on the table early. They don’t think they can pass on the QB here. They’ve started doing homework on other players lately, but I’m guessing it’s more being done for negotiation purposes or in response to trade inquiries. For the record, I still think they should draft the best player available, but they seem to think Bradford is a franchise player.

The Pick: Sam Bradford, QB Oklahoma

2. Detroit:

Finally, the city of Detroit catches a break. St. Louis couldn’t stomach paying $40 million to a DT and the Lions now have a rock to build their defense around. There has been some Suh vs. McCoy debate, but Suh has the edge in my book.

The Pick: Ndamukong Suh, DT Nebraska

3. Tampa Bay:

Gerald McCoy is the consensus here. A pass rushing defensive tackle is just what the Dr. ordered for the retooling Tampa defense.

The Pick: Gerald McCoy, DT Oklahoma

4. Washington:

The Redskins need O-line. I had them taking an OT before it became apparent Bradford would be gone and before they acquired Donovan McNabb. With the top QB off the board and their quarterback need temporarily filled, now it is even more of a no-brainer.

The Pick: Russel Okung, OT Oklahoma State

5. Kansas City:
(Wow, look at those Big 12 players go. I’m getting tired of typing Oklahoma, so I will not be projecting the Chiefs to take Trent Williams or Dez Bryant or Jermaine Gresham) This is where things get interesting. Eric Berry is the best player available. The Chiefs have a need for a safety. Will GM Scott Pioli pull the trigger on a top 5 safety? Better yet, did he learn his lesson about drafting need over value after the lackluster pick of Tyson Jackson third overall last year? I’m guessing no.

The Pick: Brian Bulaga, OT Iowa

6. Seattle:
Here’s where I go off the beaten path a little bit. Most people see Seattle addressing offensive line needs here. Patrick Kerney retired. They traded Daryl Tapp. I’m not sure defensive end isn’t the more pressing need. The way this league drools over pass rushers, it surprises me Derrick Morgan isn’t getting more play in the top 10. He has the size. He defends well against the run and the pass. People might call this a reach, but I think it’s a good move for Seattle to go with Morgan. However, Cleveland sitting right behind them is eying Berry. I’m going to predict Cleveland floats Seattle one of their third round picks to swap places, and the Browns end up picking here.

The Pick: Eric Berry, S Tennessee (to Cleveland)

7. Cleveland:
Once again the Browns are sort of the pivot point of the top 10. Normally, I’d say when in doubt, take the best player available, but that doesn’t really make sense here. The Browns are playing a lot of games in the media commenting on whether or not they’d take a quarterback and dropping lines about trading for the first pick overall. I think they’re just trying to stir up trade discussion because they don’t want to draft in this slot. I don’t think they’ll find anyone who wants to swoop in to get Clausen, but Buffalo might want to move in front of Oakland to take an OT. On the flip side, I’m sure they’ll be calling K.C. and Seattle to find out the price of sliding into position to draft Berry. I can’t decide if I want the Chiefs to take Berry because I think he’s the right pick for them or if I just don’t want him to fall to the Browns. In this scenario, K.C. once again plays it conservative and Seattle bites on the trade to move back one slot to draft Morgan.

The Pick: Derrick Morgan, DE Geogia Tech (to Seattle)

8. Oakland:

It is always interesting when people try to predict the unpredictable. Trying to keep up with Oakland’s insatiable thirst for eye-popping combine athletes, a lot of people are predicting the Raiders will take the physical marvel from Maryland, Bruce Campbell. However, Trent Williams is the better prospect and his combine numbers weren’t that much different than the times and measurements put up by Campbell. Al Davis has been relatively tame this offseason. I’ll say he does the right thing here and fills his glaring OT need with the best player available.

The Pick: Trent Williams, OT Oklahoma

9. Buffalo:
Talk of Jimmy Clausen not sliding past Buffalo has cooled. I agree, let the free fall begin for the Notre Dame QB. Buffalo could go OT here, but the lone remaining top 10 talent, Anthony Davis, has maturity issues. Ditto on WR Dez Bryant. That’s okay though, it’s not like they don’t have plenty of other weaknesses to fill. Switching to a 3-4 defense, the Bills have some personnel adjustments to make. They can start by taking the draft’s top nose tackle.
The Pick: Dan Williams, DT Tennessee

10. Jacksonville:
The Jags have an embarrassing amount of options here. They might want to trade down just to make their decision easier. Some people are projecting C.J. Spiller here. Maybe I am biased because I’m a Maurice Jones-Drew fantasy owner, but I don’t see it. Their O-line is maturing. Their offense will get better. They need to revamp their defense. It’s too early for S Earl Thomas. Defensive end remains a question mark. I couldn’t fault them for taking Jason Pierre-Paul but I think needs at linebacker are more urgent. I haven’t really seen anyone talking Rolando McClain, but a fiery middle linebacker that can lead seems like good way for them to reclaim their defensive identity.

The Pick: Rolando McClain, MLB Alabama

11. Denver:
McClain or D. Williams are both being linked to Denver by various analysts, but neither is available here. With ties to Brandon Marshall severed, the glaring need is wide receiver. The Dez Bryant character issues are being blown out of proportion to some extent.

The Pick: Dez Bryant, WR Oklahoma State

12. Miami:
The Dolphins would love a nose tackle, but as the only first round caliber player available at the position, D. Williams isn’t going to last long. Spiller isn’t out of the question if the club is tired of the injury prone Ronnie Brown. Although, don’t forget they already used their second round pick to boost their offense in WR Brandon Marshall so I assume defense will get the nod here. Outside linebacker might be their greatest need, but this draft is rare in that it is missing the type of high-end hybrid DE/OLB player that usually seems to grow on trees in college football. I don’t think players like Jerry Hughes and Sergio Kindle start to come into play until somewhere past the 20th pick. However, with decent depth littered throughout later rounds for Bill Parcels to pursue like Ricky Sapp, Brandon Lang and Eric Norwood, they don’t need to panic. With some talented players starting to slide at this point (Spiller, Pierre-Paul, Thomas), they might even have some trade offers thrown their way. In the end, they could also use a rangy free safety that can hit to go along with the young corners they brought in last year.

The Pick: Earl Thomas, S Texas

13. San Francisco:
On to Clausen’s next possible landing spot. The 49ers are talking nice about him, but I don’t think they want to take a QB with either of their first round picks. They’d rather continue to fill holes in their offensive line and secondary. Anthony Davis might have the most potential of all the O-line prospects, but he has some growing up to do. Instead of gambling on a QB, San Fran grabs a talented guy to start at RT and will count on no-nonsense head coach Mike Singletary to whip the immaturity out of him.

The Pick: Anthony Davis, OT Rutgers

14. Seattle:
I have a gut feeling if Spiller is available, Pete Carroll will push for the dynamic young playmaker to start rebuilding his offense. Yet, my head is telling me that rebuilding starts with a foundation. Seattle’s offense hasn’t really been the same since starting guard, Steve Hutchinson, was ripped away by the Vikings. I really think Mike Iupati might be a similar type of player. They started reconstructing the D-line early. Now they move on to the O-line.

The Pick: Mike Iupati, G Idaho



15. New York Giants:
Rumors are swirling that Giants DE Osi Umenyiora is on the trading block and the Giants are prepared to replace him with South Florida’s Jason Pierre-Paul. Even if Umenyiora stays put, Pierre-Paul is an option as G.M. Jerry Reese has never been shy about adding extra pass rushers. Regardless of what the G-Men have planned, I don’t think they would have dreamed Spiller would fall right into their laps. Pierre-Paul has enough potential that going either way would be warranted, but Spiller would launch the Giant offense into places it has never been before. Their revamped receiving corps showed they have a chance to be special, but the offense went stale late in the year. Imagine plugging in an electric, multi-purpose runner/slot receiver/match-up nightmare that can be supplemented with a back-breaking thumper like Brandon Jacobs.

The Pick: C.J. Spiller, RB Clemson

16. Tennessee:
That rush of wind is the entire Titan organization exhaling that N.Y. passed on Pierre-Paul. They need a middle linebacker and a couple of upgrades for their secondary, but defensive line play has been their trademark. Pierre-Paul gives them the chance to rebuild around a silky smooth athlete whose inexperience might just be a curtain hiding his potential greatness.

The Pick: Jason Pierre-Paul, DE South Florida

17. San Francisco:

The Niners are back on the clock, and all eyes are back on Jimmy Clausen. San Fransisco would probably be a good fit for the California native, but bringing in a first round QB to go along with former number one overall pick, Alex Smith, is just a weird dynamic that I can’t quite picture. Assuming they don’t go quarterback here, San Fran will look for some defensive help. A safety would be nice. It’s a shame they just barely missed on Thomas with their first pick, but a CB will help too. They settle here for the draft’s best corner who probably didn’t deserve to fall this far. .

The Pick: Joe Haden, CB Florida

18. Pittsburgh:

Might the Steelers be in the market for a quarterback? Probably not. I can’t picture Clausen here either. Somebody better start up a collection for the kid. He’ll be waiting a few more picks. The Steelers need to start rebuilding their aging defensive line, but the team has lost its identity the past few years. What they really need is a rugged interior lineman that can play guard and center. I’ll give Mel Kiper credit. He started projecting this pick before anyone else.

The Pick: Maurkice Pouncey, G/C Florida

19. Atlanta:
Things start to get real mushy as far as how to rank prospects at this point so the Falcons have some flexibility here. They took care of their corner need in free agency and will probably move on to the defensive line. I’d call Brandon Graham the better prospect, but the Falcons might be enamored with the size and frame of Carlos Dunlap.

The Pick: Carlos Dunlap, DE Florida

20. Houston:
Atlanta’s gain is Houston’s loss. The Dunta Robinson signing that freed the Falcons to go hunting for a fierce DE forces Houston to shop around for DB’s here. It’s not a total disaster, there are a few to pick from and the value isn’t half bad.

The Pick: Kareem Jackson, CB Alabama

21. Cincinnati:

Okay Bengals fans. Strap yourselves in. Cincinnati’s top needs as I see them are as follows:
1. Tight End
2. #3 wide receiver
3. Pass rush (defensive end?)
4. Strong side linebacker
5. Nickel Corner
6. #4 defensive tackle

It doesn’t make sense to draft a CB in the first round with too highly paid corners already on the roster, and there isn’t any value at LB or DT with the 21st pick. Scratch those three off the list. Demaryius Thomas has the skill set they need at receiver. I just don’t know if they’ve seen enough to gamble on the guy. Considering the prospects they could find in the next two rounds, I’d say they hold off on wide receiver.

That leaves tight end and defensive end. Every year, the top tight end in the draft class starts out getting projected to start his career in Cincinnati. This might be the year it actually happens. There certainly hasn’t been a more talented tight end that the Bengals have passed on. Meanwhile, Marvin Lewis continues to harp on how much he thinks Chase Coffman will contribute to the offense this year. I can’t decide whether he’s just trying to dissuade someone from trading in front of them to take Jermaine Gresham or if he thinks he needs to prepare everyone for passing on what many people think is the missing piece to their offensive puzzle.

If Gresham is available and they think his knees are okay, he will be hard to pass up. The guy is a top ten talent. If they pass and they miss out on a tight end later, they are putting a lot of pressure on Coffman and a wide receiver group that is in transition. Taking Gresham gives them two top-notched receiving tight end prospects. That would allow them to mix the two in into their first pro games and would give them insurance if one or the other isn’t up to the task this season. They might even be able to get creative with two-tight-end sets where opposing defenses will have no idea how to set up coverage.

Unfortunately, New England might break the hearts of all in Bengaldom. Most think the Patriots will target an outside linebacker, but trying to add some juice back into their passing game is just as strong of a possibility. With Houston in the market for a corner that they can probably find trading back two slots behind the Bengals, it probably won’t take much for New England to coax a trade.

Having a team swoop in and steal a player Cincy was targeting would be disappointing, but it’s not the end of the world. If they miss out on Gresham, they have a shot to land a defensive player that can give them a lot of energy up front. Brandon Graham would be a guy that could move all over the formation. Is he a linebacker? Is he a defensive end? I don’t know but I’d like to see him do both. That might not seem like it should be a high priority for the Bengals, but one more gadget in Mike Zimmer’s utility belt is never a bad thing. It is bitter sweet because they would basically be re-drafting David Pollack, but it is what the defense is missing. They are better off grooming Michael Johnson as their next starting defensive end and using Graham as the utility guy. In other words, rotate Odom and Fanene on one side across from Geathers and Johnson on the other. Sprinkle Graham all over the formation depending on the situation and beat the snot out of people. Frostee Rucker goes on the bubble and the need to find a fourth DT goes up slightly. At tight end they can look for Rob Gronkowski (Arizona) or Dennis Pitta (BYU) in the second round or Anthony McCoy (USC), Aaron Hernandez (Florida), or Dorin Dickerson (Pittsburgh) in the third round.

What happens if both Gresham and Graham are gone? Dunlap is a player I projected earlier that might be available in that scenario. He is an upgrade from Graham on size and athleticism, but a downgrade on character and versatility. Someone like Jerry Hughes (TCU) would be more similar to Graham and could fill a similar role. I’m not big on Sergio Kindle (Texas) and he is more of an outside linebacker, but he would be an option. Everson Griffen is more raw than Graham and less athletic than Dunlap. Focusing on other positions, Demaryius Thomas comes back into play. I have Dez Bryant going high, but some think he will tumble all the way to Cincinnati. If so, I might even take him over Gresham. Taylor Mays could get a look, but I see him as more of a second round prospect. Lastly, you’d prefer to trade down if you’re going to take an outside linebacker, but Daryl Washington (TCU) and Sean Weatherspoon (Missouri) are options if the Bengals are in a pinch.

The Pick: Brandon Graham, DE Michigan

22. New England:
Alge Crumpler is more or less the only tight end on New England’s roster. They will be without Wes Welker for the beginning of the season. Tight end is a major need. A short-range, possession receiver is a major need. They get both if they trade up to get Gresham. If they go outside linebacker, they’ll look at Hughes and Graham.

The Pick: Jermaine Gresham, TE Oklahoma

23. Green Bay:
Offensive line help would be nice, but the Packers seem content to stick with what they’ve got for some reason. Aaron Kampman transitioning to linebacker in their new 3-4 defense didn’t work out too well and the Packers allowed him to leave through free-agency. Green Bay decides to ignore needs at CB and O-line to take a player that can start opposite Clay Matthews.

The Pick: Sergio Kindle, OLB Texas

24. Philadelphia:
With the twenty-fourth pick of the draft, the Philadelphia Eagles select…Jimmy Clausen??? Don’t laugh, it’s going to happen. Okay, maybe not quite like that, but I think this is where teams will start trying to trade back into the first round to pick up Clausen. Since Philly is in the business of supplying other teams with quarterbacks, why not project the trade here. I think Minnesota sees an opportunity to grab a QB of the future and fearing someone else might pull the trigger soon they decide to make a move. Brett Favre isn’t going to live forever and I’m not buying this, “Minnesota is happy with Tavaris Jackson” business. Less than a year ago, all you heard was the opposite.

The Pick: Jimmy Clausen, QB Notre Dame (To Minnesota)

25. Baltimore:
The Ravens have needs in their linebacking corps and could use a developmental wide receiver even with the Anquan Boldin acquisition. However, their biggest need might be at cornerback. Ladarius Webb was a solid pick last year, but a season-ending knee injury to their standout rookie once again leaves the Ravens needing DB’s.
The Pick: Kyle Wilson, CB Boise State

26. Arizona:
The Cardinals are in transition after losing two of their top three offensive players and one of their top defensive players in the offseason. They need an inside linebacker and a nose tackle, but they get the most bang for their buck here snagging Boldin’s future replacement.

The Pick: Demaryius Thomas, WR Georgia Tech

27. Dallas
Two seasons in a row the Cowboys barreled through the regular season and bowed out of the postseason because their offensive line was big and slow. It is time to replace Flozell the Hotel. They can look for their safety and nose tackle later.

The Pick: Charles Brown, OT USC

28. San Diego:
The Chargers divorced themselves from LaDainian Tomlinson, Jamal Williams, and Antonio Cromartie in the offseason and will consequently head into the draft looking for help at RB, NT, and CB. Not surprisingly, a lot of people assume they’ll reach for RB Ryan Mathews or NT Terrence Cody here. Don’t forget, the Chargers have some flexibility from having switched second round picks with the Seahawks when they shipped Charlie Whitehurst to Seattle. Not to mention, San Diego is a team that ignores need for value more consistently than anyone. Jared Odrick is a fierce defensive tackle that should transition nicely to 3-4 defensive end.

The Pick: Jared Odrick, DT Penn State

29. N.Y. Jets:
It has been a busy offseason for the Jets as they have methodically added veterans to their positions of need through trades and free agency. Nose tackle is one of their few holes left unfilled, but they won’t find one worth picking here. When in doubt, pick a pass rusher. Some are calling Jerry Hughes the most underrated prospect in the draft that could go as high as 12 to Miami.
The Pick: Jerry Hughes, OLB TCU

30. Minnesota:
The Eagles slashed the payroll in favor of youth this offseason. They’ve added linebacking help through trades and will have a chance to add offensive line depth later. Instead, Philly takes the opportunity to grab a defensive end to line up across from Trent Cole.
The Pick: Everson Griffen, DE USC (To Philadelphia)

31. Indianapolis:
The Colts need an upgrade at left tackle and should start looking for a center to replace Jeff Saturday, but their most glaring need last season might have been cornerback depth. Teams usually don’t worry too much about value at the bottom of the first round, but the Colts are able to pull it off here landing a corner that comes off the draft board at just about the right time.
The Pick: Devin McCourty, CB Rutgers

32. New Orleans:
The Saints pulled off a big win in the big game, but they have some work to do if they want to defend the crown. Their top need is outside linebacker and they actually have a couple to pick from here. TCU’s Daryl Washington and Missouri’s Sean Weatherspoon both could get the nod, but the latest buzz off the wire has Washington’s stock up and Weatherspoon’s stock down.
The Pick: Daryl Washington, LB TCU

Who Dey Gonna Pick? - Part 2 THE DEFENSE

Cincinnati’s most important personnel move this offseason might have been the three year contract awarded to defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer. After transforming the Bengals defense into a tough, stingy unit in just two seasons at the helm, I was worried Zimmer might get some play around the league as a head coaching candidate. Luckily, no one came calling, owner Mike Brown did the right thing and Zimmer has a chance to come back and finish what he started. The front office managed to keep last year’s group in tact. Now it’s Zimmer’s job to crank things up a notch as he attempts to turn the Cincinnati defense into something it has never been before: ELITE.

Defensive Line (8):

What’ve We Got??!!

The cornerstone of the Bengals’ 2009 resurgence was their defensive line play. For the first time since I’ve been a fan, the Bengals didn’t consistently get pushed around in the trenches last season. Things trailed off the second half of the year when Domata Peko went down and Tank Johnson was playing hurt, but for the most part the boys up front delivered. Peko has quickly become one of the more underrated linemen in the league. He’s the cog that has to hold up if this group is going to become dominant. Johnson didn’t bring the inside pass rush coaches hoped he’d deliver, but he gave them more against the run than they expected. He battled through the second half of the year with a bum foot and earned a new contract. Pat Sims rounds out the DT rotation as a solid backup that can start if necessary and Clinton McDonald remains on the roster after spending a year on the practice squad. Is Orien Harris on the team again? That guy is like a homing pigeon. He got cut. He came back. He got traded. He came back.

At DE, Antwan Odom started last year on a tear that included a 5-sack performance against the Packers. Unfortunately, his season also ended on a tear. His return from the week six achilles injury will be one of the keys to the Bengals’ 2010 season. Robert Geathers remains the other starter after another solid yet unspectacular season while Jonathan Fanene and Frostee Rucker return as the backups. Fanene showed signs of finally providing the Bengals some return on investment last year as Odom’s main replacement and Rucker again proved to be a valuable run defender that can play inside on passing downs. The X-factor is Michael Johnson. He used that big 6’7” frame to bat down quite a few passes and showed flashes that he might end up their best draft pick from last year.

What Should they Do?

Overall, the DT group is in good shape. Health pending, the starting DT tandem should be a strength for the team for a few years as T. Johnson is younger than I realized. Pat Sims is an ideal fit as the third man of the group. He’s talented enough to fill in and keep the other two guys fresh, but may not be consistent enough to rely on as a starter. The routine the past few years has been to stick with three true DT’s and borrow a big DE like Rucker or Fanene on third downs if necessary. I think they have to suck it up and dedicate another roster spot to an actual tackle. Things got real dicey late in the year when Peko and Sims went down and T. Johnson was gimpy. They should look for a fourth player they’re comfortable with playing all four downs. Is McDonald that guy? I have no idea. If not, they should consider drafting somebody. Early on, Brian Price (UCLA) looked like he might be a good value pick in the first round, but his stock has tapered off as of late. Pick 21 is probably a hair early for Jared Odrick (Penn State) too. Dan Williams (Tennessee) will be long gone. There are no good fits in round 2. Arthur Jones flashed late round 1 athletic ability at Syracuse, but his extensive injury history could leave him as an option with that third round compensatory pick. Lamarr Houston (Texas) is another candidate come the third round and beyond.

The defensive ends have potential, but the coaching staff might have to look into a crystal ball for some roster decisions. If Odom comes back and M. Johnson taps into his massive potential, DE is not a high priority. If either player isn’t able to play a major role in improving the pass rush, they should probably use an early pick to try to upgrade talent. Geathers, Fanene and Rucker are all valuable role players but if any of them has to be counted on to do heavy lifting in getting after the quarterback, it’s going to be tough to match up with the elite offenses in the league. With Brady, Manning, Rivers and Brees all on the 2010 schedule, that could be a big problem. It would be a shame to part with one of the three, but I think some insurance for Odom’s injury problems might be necessary. They are likely to have some high-value pass rushing options in the first round. Atlanta may go defensive end two picks in front of Cincy, but out of Carlos Dunlap (Florida), Brandon Graham (Michigan) and Everson Griffen (USC), at least one of the three could be available. Other needs might seem more urgent, but 4-3 ends with sack potential are hard to come by. Taking one with the 21st pick might be a golden opportunity that is hard to pass up. Later rounds will be more rich in bigger, slower 3-4 DE types and hybrid 3-4 OLB’s. That’s not to say Cincy wouldn’t be interested in a work horse like Corey Wooton (Northwestern) or a smaller, faster prospect like Brandon Lang (Troy), but the longer they wait, the harder it is to justify replacing one of the incumbents.

Secondary (8):

What’ve We Got??!!

If the defensive line sets the tone, the secondary keeps the beat. The phrase “best cornerback tandem in football” gets thrown around a lot, but let’s just say the Bengals starting pair ranks in the top 10. At times, their depth behind Jonathan Joseph and Leon Hall was exposed in nickel and dime packages with rookie Morgan Trent filling in as the third corner. After struggling through a good part of 2009 with injuries, a healthy David Jones should help, along with the re-acquisition of former Bengal Keiwan Ratliff. Former Ohio State corner, Antonio Smith, was kept off the practice squad and will also compete.

At safety, the Bengals will try again with Chris Crocker and Roy Williams as the starters. Chinedum Ndukwe is a nice insurance policy in case of injury, while Kyries Hebert remains the leader of the special teams. Tom Nelson will try to challenge for a roster spot, but after watching him play toward the end of last year let’s hope he doesn’t get it.

What Should they do?

The number 3 and 4 CB slots were sore spots on last year’s roster, but Jones and Ratliff, along with a more experienced Trent should prevent the Bengals from needing to take any drastic draft measures. Safety is a little less clear cut. Still seeing Roy Williams as a washed up veteran, many league pundits consider it a position of weakness. Bengals coaches saw enough of him to decide to bring him back, possibly making it less of a problem than it seems. I like Ndukwe as the number 3, but is he the long-term answer as a starter? If not they will weigh safety as an option in the draft. Taylor Mays (USC) should be available in the first round. His speed and hitting ability are off the charts, but his coverage skills are suspect. Major Wright (Florida) and Nate Allen (South Florida) are second rounders to consider, but given Marvin Lewis’ preference for safeties to have high-end coverage skills, perhaps they’d be better off using a later pick on a larger corner prospect like Virginia’s Chris Cook. They probably end up squeezing as much as they can out of Roy Williams and waiting until next year to dip into the draft for a safety.

Linebacker (6):

What’ve We Got??!!

The Bengals’ linebacking corps is the heart of the unit. They don’t really have any all-stars at this point, but they are all blue-collar thumpers that are going to make offenses feel pain as they try to move the ball up the field. Between Keith Rivers and Brandon Johnson, they should be set on the weak side. Dhani Jones continues to plug along in the middle and Rey Maualuga proved to be a capable starter on the strong side. You couldn’t ask for a better strong side backup in Rashard Jeanty, but I’m not sure if his body will hold up to every down duty if he ever has to start. Abdul Hodge and Dan Skuta currently sit as training camp depth that will compete with any rookies added through the draft.

What should they Do?

I think a future starter at strong side linebacker is the one thing that’s missing here. If they invest in one now, he’ll be ready when Maualuga has to take over for Jones in the middle. The beauty of starting the backup MLB, Maualuga, on the strong side is they have the flexibility to add a young developmental player while preserving a roster spot for a grizzled veteran like Jeanty. If Maualuga goes down or has to start in the middle, the Bengals can tag team the void on the outside keeping Jeanty fresh without completely throwing a rookie to the wolves. They don’t really have any options in the first round unless they manage to trade back to try to land Missouri’s Sean Weatherspoon. TCU’s Daryl Washington might be gone, but character question marks could leave Navorro Bowman available at the bottom of the second round. Eric Norwood (South Carolina) could draw interest in the third round and Thaddeus Gibson (Ohio State) would be an intriguing athlete to add to the team if he lasted into the third day.

Summing it up:

Based off quotes you read from players after the end of the season, I got the feeling everyone felt if they stayed together another year they’d have a chance to be special. Well, the unit returns in tact. It’s time to find out if they’re right. The one piece that seems to be missing is an explosive playmaker. Every great defense has it. The Bengals have some candidates capable of filling that role (M. Johnson, Joseph, Peko), but they have to develop. For next year it might have to be a collective effort. That’s not particularly reassuring, but if I had to pick someone to figure out how to orchestrate an attack from all angles optimizing the skill set of each of his players, Zimmer would probably be on the list. Last year, he set his mind to stopping the run and he got the job done. This year is a slightly more daunting task, but I’m excited to see what kind of chaos he is able to concoct.

Defensive First Round Draft Pick Board:

1. Brandon Graham, DE Michigan: Availability - 7
Some scouts think he’s an OLB because he’s too short to play end. I think it’s hard to ignore a high-motor player who is this athletic as long as he’s stout enough to hold up against the run. At 270 lbs, Graham should be fine regardless where his team decides to put him.

2. Carlos Dunlap, DE Florida: Availability – 7
Dunlap might be the defensive prospect with the highest ceiling and the lowest floor. Maturity questions have some analysts even including him in second round discussions. I wasn’t all that impressed with Dunlap on the field, but I find it hard to believe that of the teams picking in the 15 to 32 range that there isn’t going to be one coaching staff that thinks they can mold this kid into something special.

3. Everson Griffen, DE USC: Availability – 8
He’s big. He’s quick. He’s raw. The Bengals seem to have an affinity for Trojans. Griffen could be the next in line.

4. Taylor Mays, S USC: Availability – 8
Scouts drool over his athleticism, but it doesn’t seem to translate onto game film. I can see why they might take a shot with him, but I kind of hope they don’t.

5. Brian Price, DT UCLA: Availability – 8
He’s a talented 4-3 DT prospect, but he has endurance questions. His draft stock has plummeted lately.

End of an Era

After weeks of swirling rumors, the hatchet finally dropped. The Donovan McNabb era in Philadelphia is officially over. There has been an explosion of reaction to the trade that sent the former Philly star to Washington last week. Some Eagles fans are saying good riddance. Some are distraught. Some analysts understand the switch but don’t think they should have traded within the division. Others think it is a foolish move for Philly that only weakens their team. While I won’t go as far as to say, “McNabb is a bum. I’m glad he’s gone,” I like the trade. I think the Eagles took a calculated risk, and I could care less if they traded within the division. Here’s why:

Who’s the better player?

Fans who wanted to run McNabb out of town because of the past are wrong. However, the Eagles traded McNabb because of the future. They projected one to three years down the line and decided they were comfortable putting their eggs in Kevin Kolb’s basket with Michael Vick as an insurance policy. A lot of people don’t get it. Will McNabb be the better quarterback in 2010? They say yes. I say maybe. Every player has a window of opportunity. They come into the league on a learning curve, they peak and eventually they taper off. Kolb has not peaked. How high he will reach isn’t clear, but it would be hard to argue that he’s there yet. It is also hard to argue that McNabb has not peaked. The questions now become how fast will the two rise and fall respectively and when will they cross. The Eagles seem to be betting Kolb’s skills will eclipse McNabb’s sooner rather than later and I’m pretty sure they are in a better position to make that judgment than anyone else.

The big thing no one is talking about is injury history. Kolb has none. Throughout his career, McNabb has been beat up with groin, sports hernia, thumb, ACL and rib injuries. He used to take over games with his athleticism. Now he looks like a 20-year-old Buick chugging around the field and I cringe every time he gets tackled.

Sure, McNabb is certainly the better player on paper right now. He is a gritty 11-year veteran. He has continued to be an effective although streaky passer, he has an underrated deep ball, and, as the least intercepted per attempt quarterback in NFL history, he takes care of the football. Kolb has started two games. Despite speculation from some analysts, I don’t believe the trade is purely financial. The Eagles have had three years to evaluate Kolb. They are giving him the starting nod because they think he can play. The organization has been too strong over the past decade to think they are motivated otherwise. McNabb looks like the better starting candidate today, but what about tomorrow? Or the next day? Or the next? Between age and injury concerns, I’d put the probability closer to 60/40 in McNabb’s favor than the 100% certainty some people are talking. If you look more than one year down the road the probability swings overwhelmingly in Kolb’s favor as long as he takes over now and is given an entire season as the top QB this year including training camp, preseason and the regular season.

They traded him to the Redskins??

A lot of people can’t believe Philly made the deal with Washington, instantly upgrading one of their division rivals. What difference does it make? They decided to make the trade because McNabb has one year left on his contract and they think he probably isn’t going to win them a Super Bowl before he leaves. If they were that worried about McNabb instantly making the Redskins into a Super Bowl contender, they would have kept him. Maybe Washington catches lightning in a bottle, but chances are neither team will be able to win it all next year. What’s the worst case, the Redskins edge out the Eagles for a playoff spot? To me, Philly is saying, “we are tired of being really good. We want to be great.” So they are cutting ties with McNabb and are trying to line up the next guy so that his prime is in sync with their emerging young stars at WR, TE and RB. Regardless, on top of all McNabb’s physical baggage, it isn’t exactly a no-brainer to plug into a new system, in a new locker room, in a new city. It’s almost ironic that it’s Washington, the place where big-name free agents go to die, where McNabb will be trying to continue his career. If you look at the other side of the “McNabb will elevate the Redskins” coin, he could also serve as the Eagles’ own little Trojan horse to wreck the Redskins’ season if he breaks down mid-season.

So why not just ship McNabb off somewhere in the AFC? Everyone is making the assumption that Oakland and Buffalo had comparable offers on the table. The idea that Washington was best for Donovan sounds great, but I’m pretty sure they picked Washington because the Redskins were willing to give up more than anyone else. In a draft where the 37th player selected won’t be that much worse than the 20th player selected, a second round pick is nothing to sneeze at.

McNabb was an all-star player for most of the 11 years he was with the team. He was asked to carry the offense and was given little more than Brian Westbrook and a good, but not great, offensive line to do it. The one year he had an elite receiving target, he played like an elite quarterback. I’m sorry to see the guy go. He has always handled himself the right way on and off the field. On top of all that he’s been through, look no further than how he’s handled himself before and after this trade to judge McNabb’s character. It’s a far cry from Jay Cutler’s conduct last year that’s for sure. Regardless, it was time for both parties to move on. McNabb gets a shot at finishing his career as something more than a place holder. The Eagles get to see their heir apparent in action for a full season before they have to make a decision about a long-term contract while also acquiring fair compensation for McNabb. To me, it looks like a fair trade.

Who Dey Gonna Pick? - Part 1

What do the Bengals need? Back in October, I can remember scratching my head over the question. I thought some of the backups could be upgraded, but there didn’t seem to be any glaring holes among the starters. While the roster is still stronger now than I can ever remember it being, it is apparent there are some gaps to fill to avoid slumping back into the world of 7-9 sloppiness.

2009 was a good year for Cincinnati. It wasn’t great. It didn’t end the way Bengals fans wanted, but they swept the division. They hosted a playoff game and it’s hard not to remember injuries to Reggie Kelly, Chris Henry, and Antwan Odom and think about what might have been. Overall, their finish probably reflected their true place in the league hierarchy for the year: somewhere between ninth and twelfth place. So what’s next? In 2005, the team rode a powerful offense with an opportunistic defense into the playoffs. Through the ups and downs of the past few years, they’ve transformed into a rugged hang-in-there type of offense with a solid, blossoming defense. In the end, the offense cracked under the constant pressure of grinding games out and the defense impressed but ran out of bullets as they wore down with a pile of injuries in the front seven. To take things to the next level, one unit or the other is going to have to upgrade into the aggressive/explosive category while the other unit holds its ground. Here’s a position-by-position breakdown of the roster.

The Offense:

Quarterback (3):

What’ve we got?!: (must be read in extra-cool Al Pacino voice)
Probably no movement here. It’s not time to look for Carson Palmer’s replacement yet. He has been inconsistent, but it’s not all his fault. He is the horse they picked. They’re not going to change now in the prime of his career.

What should they do?:
Stand pat. With Palmer’s injury history, three quarterbacks is a must. One or two years down the road, start looking for a new third stringer to groom.

Running Back (4):

What’ve we got?!:
How do you like Mike Brown now? The Bengals’ owner is routinely roasted in the media for constantly taking risks on players with questionable pasts. Yet, Brown just keeps pulling the trigger and the Bengals have a stable RB situation to show for it. Not only has Cedric Benson proven to be a solid #1 back, but also he’s been a quality citizen in the locker room. I hate to jinx it but the Bernard Scott pick is even looking good at this point. Brian Leonard rounds out the group nicely as the utility guy.

What should they do?:
Unless they find an explosive receiving back to upgrade on Leonard, you probably won’t see them go for much more than late-round, practice squad type of players in the draft. Jahvid Best isn’t quite as absurd as it initially sounds considering Benson isn’t locked up and the general need for offensive spark, but I figure they’ll find somewhere more practical to invest their first round pick.

Wide Receiver (6):

What’ve we got?!:
Here’s where things get dicey. Seen in most circles as their top need, the front office has made a concerted effort so far to patch things up through free agency. I am lukewarm on what they’ve done, but when you break it down I think they made the right decisions. Antonio Bryant seems like a good fit, but I hesitate to get too excited as I felt the same way about Laveranues Coles last year. In contrast, Bryant is younger, bigger, faster, and less worn down than Coles, but can he stay healthy and will past character issues bubble to the surface? I’ll give the Bengals’ front office credit though for stepping back up to the plate a year after whiffing with Coles. The more intriguing question is whether they would have been better off opting for the older but more accomplished Terrelle Owens? He probably still has #2WR skills left in him and they could have kept some roster flexibility by signing him to a low-risk one-year contract. Both receivers still have speed along with the size and strength needed to make tough catches in traffic. Mulling it over, I think the biggest advantage Bryant provides is Chad insurance. Ochocinco isn’t on the decline yet, but he’s no spring chicken. In the event that he goes down within the next two or three years, Bryant is the best option on the radar to fill in as the top receiving target in a pinch.

Past the top two WR’s, the depth chart is cloudy. Andre Caldwell might still develop into a viable option as a starter but for right now he doesn’t make me feel warm and fuzzy as the third receiver. Behind Caldwell it’s even more alarming. I don’t think Quan Cosby and Maurice Purify will ever excel much past being special teamers and free agents Matt Jones and Chris Davis are sleepers more than anything. Jerome Simpson has the physical tools but has been unable to earn any playing time. If one of those top three guys goes down, it could get scary pretty quick.

What should they do?:
The key is to find a fourth receiver they feel can contribute to the offense if needed. Granted, I am being picky. Caldwell would be an upgrade from the starters on some teams, but this offense puts a pretty heavy load on wide receivers. They don’t get a lot of receiving yards from the tight ends or running backs. Jones, Simpson, and possibly a first to third round draft pick should compete for that fourth slot. Cosby earns a spot as the punt returner (I was thinking they could use a replacement until I looked at the stats and saw that Cosby finished the year tied with Josh Cribbs for fourth in the league in average yards per punt return). That leaves one roster spot for whoever can play special teams best: Davis, Purify, Freddie Brown, or low round draft pick.

Taking a WR early carries some risk. If the guy doesn’t win that fourth receiver slot it could put them in the roster bind of having to keep 7 receivers or risk compromising their special teams unit slightly. Considering the age of their top targets and the time it takes to develop college WR’s, I think it’s worth it to get a new high-end prospect in the pipeline. In the first round they could consider Golden Tate (Notre Dame), Arrelious Benn (Illinois), or Demaryius Thomas (Georgia Tech). Tate is shorter than scouts prefer, but his on-field production speaks for itself and he eased concerns about his speed at the combine. Benn appears to be a better fit physically and some attribute his lack of high-end productivity to the general deficiencies of Illinois’ offense. I watched him pretty closely in the Illinois Cincinnati game. He just wasn’t getting open. Against last year’s Bearcat defense that is alarming. Thomas is a boom or bust prospect whose full potential is unclear because of the option heavy offense ran by Georgia Tech. He’s been a fast riser as scouts have taken notice of his prototypical size and speed and his high average yards per catch. Unfortunately, the values of Tate and Benn probably end up falling somewhere between when Cincy picks in the first and second rounds while Thomas might be gone by the 21st pick. Don’t fret though if you’re hoping for a WR and it doesn’t quite work out in round 1. There is a strong pocket of second and third round talent in this draft class behind Dez Bryant, Thomas, Tate, and Benn. Jordan Shipley (Texas), Mardy Gilyard (Cincinnati), Taylor Price (Ohio), Riley Cooper (Florida), Eric Decker (Minesota), and David Reed (Utah) are all solid possibilities. That doesn’t even include Mike Williams, the first round talent with late-round character known most for quitting the team at Syracuse. I wouldn’t touch him with a ten-foot pole but knowing the Bengals, he could be an option.

Tight End (3):

What’ve we got?!:
Right now they’re down to Chase Coffman trying to recover from an injury plagued rookie season and the underwhelming Daniel Coats.

What should they do?:
Coffman’s status is crucial. The sound bites coming from Marvin Lewis have given every indication that he thinks Coffman can play a significant role in the offense this year. A productive tight end would take some of the pressure off the wide receivers. If Coffman is up to the task, they can wait until the third day of the draft to look for help at the position. I hope that re-signing Coats was just a backup plan in case Reggie Kelly either isn’t able to return from the torn Achilles or doesn’t want to return. I would like to see them bring back Kelly and look for solid blocking tight end in the fourth round. In that case, Coats would be the odd man out if everyone else makes it through training camp healthy. Oklahoma’s Jermaine Gresham will get a look in the first round but his injury history might create enough doubt to allow them to ignore his tremendous receiving skills. Even if Coffman can’t contribute and they need someone who can step in this year, a deep tight end class should allow them to find a quality player in the second or third round.

O-Line (9):

What’ve we got?!:
I’ve seen some criticism aimed at the Bengals offensive line throughout the offseason, but I thought their 2009 performance was one of the bright spots of the year. At times, they gave up too much pressure on the quarterback, but they’re young. They’ll only get better. They were definitely more physical up front and it showed with increased production out of the rushing attack. Andrew Whitworth proved to be a high-quality left tackle, but almost as important was the improved play at the center position from first-year starter Kyle Cook. Nate Livings and Evan Mathis were an adequate tag team at left guard and Dennis Roland filled in admirably for injured rookie RT Andre Smith. Speaking of Smith, I liked what I saw in the limited action he saw towards the end of the year. More often than not when he cane in on jumbo packages he would fire off the line and just bury people. I thought the weak link of the unit was veteran right guard Bobbie Williams. With Williams not re-signed yet, Mathis, second year center/guard Jonathan Luigs, and the former DT being converted to guard, Jason Shirley, currently are left vying for the right guard slot. Anthony Collins and Roland are the backup tackles

What should they do?:
I’m excited to see if Andre Smith can overcome offseason foot surgery to upgrade the right side of the line. The big decision is whether or not to resign Williams, an unrestricted free agent. I think they have to let him go. He’s good for the locker room, but he got beat way too much last year to justify any more than a one-year contract. Resources would be much better spent on new contracts for Cook and the starting CB’s than a 33 year-old guard who’s lost a step.

O-line shouldn’t be a high priority in the draft. If they opt for not re-signing Williams, they’ll look for a guard at some point, but it probably won’t be in round 1. Mike Iupati leads a thin crop of interior offensive lineman, but there’s no way he gets past Pittsburgh at 18. Think Mike Johnson (Alabama) in the second, Zane Beadles (Utah) in the third or Illinois’ Jon Asamoah in the fourth.

Offensive Draft Pick Board:

The knee-jerk reaction to the 2009 season is that the Bengals should use draft resources to bolster the offense. Maybe so, but the search for offensive help might have to wait until after the first round. The defensive talent in this draft is so deep, there’s a good chance they find a defender they can’t pass up. Here’s a look at how I’d rank the first round offensive prospects for the Bengals and the chances that each will be available (on a scale of 1 to 10)

1. C.J. Spiller RB Clemson: Availability – 2
Do they need him? No. Could they pass him up if he were there? No. Will he be available? Probably not.

2. Dez Bryant WR Oklahoma State: Availability – 4
There has been a lot of chatter about his maturity and character flags and he is starting to drop into the mid-teens in mock drafts. Yet, the guy is getting compared to Andre Johnson. Chances are he doesn’t tumble.

3. Jermaine Gresham TE Oklahoma: Availability – 7
Unless someone trades up, I’m fairly certain he’ll be available. By all accounts his blend of size and athleticism is unparalleled. He would definitely add a new dimension to the offense, but there are questions. He’s had a major injury to each knee, what’s the risk? Are they better off drafting a defensive player for the future and dipping into the deep tight end class later to pair with Chase Coffman? The only thing that scares me about passing on Gresham is the likelihood that if he falls past Cincy, he goes to Baltimore. It all depends who else is available.

4. Demaryius Thomas WR Georgia Tech: Availability – 6
Thomas scares me to death because he seems like the prospect most equipped to replace Chris Henry, but he’s unproven. You have to go out on a limb to get him.

5. Mike Iupati G Idaho: Availability – 5
He’s from a small school, but you wouldn’t know it from the way he played at the Senior Bowl. He’s big. He’s Strong. He’d be too good to pass up if by some miracle he were available.

6. Golden Tate WR Notre Dame: Availability - 9
He is a talented player that might be a slight reach at 21. However, the goal has to be to add one to two players in the first three rounds that can help them generate first downs more consistently. If they think Tate is the guy, they should go for it.


To Be Continued: Next post, I’ll dig into the defense.

Mocking it Up!

Super Bad Pick

Well, my Colts by 17 pick was quite the prediction, eh? New Orleans took care of business outplaying Indianapolis in all aspects of the game. Brees was a shoe-in for MVP, but I was most impressed with the performance by Saints coach Sean Payton.

Sorry Marvin Lewis, but how does Payton not win coach of the year? Payton’s display on the league’s biggest stage makes me think maybe they should look past the regular season when deciding such accolades. He coached a brilliant game, start to finish. His lone mistake was that ridiculous onside kick call. Analysts will rave on forever about how “gutsy” it was and it is going to drive me crazy. Yes, the play had a huge impact on the game, but it would have had an equally huge impact in the opposite direction if the Saints didn’t get the ball back. They totally caught the Colts off guard and still appeared to only recover the kick because the ball got pinned up against somebody’s leg making it hard for the Colts player to secure the ball. Their game plan was unfolding beautifully and they decided more or less to gamble the entire game on one mad scramble for the football. No matter what they saw on film, the onside kick was a mistake.

It’s a good thing the Saints recovered that ball because it would have been a shame to spoil the masterpiece put together by Payton for the rest of the game. The pace was crucial. If it weren’t for the extended halftime show, the game might have been over by 9:00. The Saints came up with what seemed like dozens of 10 to 15-yard first down plays. Crafting long sustaining drives, they kept momentum and bled the clock. Indy’s biggest weakness was their corners and Payton ran 10-yard outs with those big receivers all day long to exploit it. They kept Peyton Manning off the field, but more importantly they minimized Indy’s experience advantage. The Saints’ players didn’t have a chance to realize what they were doing. Before they could freeze up and blow the game like they tried to do against the Vikings, the game ended.

The aftermath of the game, as expected sparked loads of media discussion about Manning’s status among great quarterbacks. One loss and all of the critics who used to constantly harp on all of his big game failures come crawling out of the woodwork. Yes, the “best ever” moniker has to go back on the shelf for a while, but calling the guy a choke artist is going a little too far. Manning has been voted MVP more times than anyone else because he is the most valuable player. How many quarterbacks could threaten an undefeated season with Charlie Johnson and Ryan Diem as their starting offensive tackles? He makes everyone in that franchise better from Austin Collie to Dwight Freeney all the way up to team President Bill Polian. Peyton Manning didn’t lose the Super Bowl. The Colts lost the Super Bowl because they got out-schemed and out-coached.

The Mock Madness Begins!

1. St. Louis:

The Rams followed up their two win season a year ago with a one win season and have earned the honor of picking number one overall in the draft. “You need a quarterback. Your offensive line is still in shambles. You don’t want to tie up too much money on your defensive line.” Don’t mind those whispers in the background. That’s just Detroit trying to convince St. Louis not to take Ndamukong Suh. Yes, St. Louis has greater needs elsewhere, but you don’t draft need over value with the number one pick. There is too much at stake. Don’t blink. Don’t think. Just take the best player available and most agree that Suh is the guy.
The Pick: Ndamukong Suh, DT, Nebraska

2. Detroit:

Assuming St. Louis doesn’t do something crazy, the Lions will miss out on Suh. Lucky for them, there is someone touted as being almost as good for them to take instead. They have some work to do to get more physical on the offensive and defensive lines. A stud OT would be nice, but DT Gerald McCoy is considered a better prospect than any O-lineman available.
The Pick: Gerald McCoy, DT, Oklahoma

3. Tampa Bay:

Here’s where things start to get interesting. The Buccaneers could use a wide receiver and need players just about everywhere on defense. They purged the majority of their veterans from last year’s roster and the one they kept, Ronde Barber, is starting to lose a step. Safety Eric Berry is the highest rated player at this point and a lot of mock drafts are tabbing him as Tampa’s guy. He is a special player, but a safety number 3 overall? Even Sean Taylor didn’t get taken until the fifth pick. The Bucs need defensive linemen just as bad as DB’s. I think pass rushing talent will win out in the end. DE Derrick Morgan isn’t a finished product, but he has everything scouts crave in defensive end prospects. He has size, speed, an impressive repertoire of pass-rush moves and he holds up strong against the run. By the time April rolls around, I think Morgan will have gained a lot of momentum. He might even threaten McCoy for the number two slot.
The Pick: Derrick Morgan, DE, Geogia Tech

4. Washington

What a coincidence. Washington has the fourth pick and this year’s draft class has the rare distinction of having a safety with top 5 talent. As weird as it would be to see the Redskins pick in the top 10 without taking a DB (see Laron Landry, Carlos Rogers and Sean Taylor), I don’t see new coach Mike Shanahan selecting a safety with his first choice as head man in Washington. A lot of people think Shanahan will go for his quarterback of the future here. Keep an eye on Sam Bradford’s draft stock, but at this point I think the Redskins are better served making a safer pick for a greater need. Russell Okung is currently thought to be the best all-around blocker available. Washington desperately needs talented youth on their offensive line.
The Pick: Russell Okung, OT, Oklahoma State

5. Kansas City

Who will pick Eric Berry? The final landing spots of QB’s are usually some of the more interesting storylines on draft day. I think it’s just as interesting to watch what happens when great players come along at lower value positions (S, LB, RB). Berry is considered a top five talent in the 2010 draft class. However, he is a safety. A lot of teams with high picks find it hard to commit the obligatory large sums of guaranteed money to lower impact positions. A lot of analysts are slotting OT in this spot for that very reason. It will be interesting. I think you might see a little bit of the opposite effect. Poor economic times and the unsettling labor landscape facing the NFL might force teams to opt for giving an elite guy like Berry more money instead of gambling on a boom or bust OT prospect.
The Pick: Eric Berry, S, Tennessee

6. Seattle

There is always at least one surprising coaching change at the end of each NFL season. The Seahawks made this year’s headlines in recent weeks when they coaxed USC coach Pete Carroll to head north. Carroll has plenty of work to do finding a quarterback to build around and reconstructing the offensive line. Rutgers OT Anthony Davis is a contender here, but when it’s all said and done I think Sam Bradford gains enough momentum to get the nod. They can squeeze another year out of Hasselbeck and hopefully have a chance to retool the o-line before Bradford has to take over.
The Pick: Sam Bradford, QB, Oklahoma

7. Cleveland

Having a roster desperate for offensive skill position players, I’m sure the newly appointed director of football operations, Mike Holmgren, would love to grab a weapon on his favorite side of the ball. Unfortunately, Oklahoma State WR Dez Bryant might be his only option along those lines and it is probably a few picks early for him even. He will most likely have to opt for defense instead. I think OLB is their biggest need, but the pickins are slim in the top half of the first round this year. The best value looks like Florida CB Joe Haden. Haden easily stands out above the rest of the CB’s in the draft. The theme continues. Play it safe. Don’t reach. Take the best player available.
The Pick: Joe Haden, CB, Florida

8. Oakland

This is where “play it safe” gets thrown out the window. Here we are again with the chore of trying to predict the Raiders in the top 10. The quarterback situation is a mess but I don’t think they’ll try to address that here. They need an OT, but that would make way too much sense. The next best bet is defensive end. Most have dropped Florida defensive end Carlos Dunlap in projections for maturity concerns, but if Al Davis thinks Dunlap can play, Davis won’t be scared to pick him. Stay tuned to see where his draft stock ends up.
The Pick: Carlos Dunlap, DE, Florida

9. Buffalo

The Bills are yet another franchise with questions at QB and OT. Some think they’ll take a QB here but I don’t see them giving up on Trent Edwards quite yet. In that case, Buffalo will be ecstatic if Oakland does pass on the OT’s. They beefed up the interior portion of their line in last year’s draft. Now it’s time to secure the edge. Many think Anthony Davis is the most talented OT of the class. Right now, I see him as 2010’s version of Andre Smith. While he’s not likely to commit as many pre-draft gaffes as Smith, I think questions about his attitude will rule him out of top 5 contention.
The Pick: Anthony Davis, OT, Rutgers

10. Denver

The Jaguars and the Broncos will flip a coin for the tenth pick so for now I’ll go ahead and cover both of them. The Broncos acquired this pick in the Cutler trade. Might they use it to pick their next quarterback? Until we get a better idea of Jimmy Clausen’s value, I’m going to say no. Denver could use help with their run defense, but it is too early for the second tier of DT’s. Next on Denver’s list should probably be wide receiver. Brandon Marshall might be out the door and Eddie Royal’s production dropped off in his second year. Even if Marshall doesn’t leave, Dez Bryant makes sense. Having been ineligible for most of the college season, grading Bryant as a top 10 talent is basically an assumption right now. He will have a lot of money at stake during workouts the next two months.
The Pick: Dez Bryant, WR, Oklahoma State

11. Jacksonville

The Jaguars entered the home stretch of the season with playoff aspirations. Instead, they lost five of six and finished last in the AFC south. They focused on retooling the o-line in ’09 and finally might be going in the right direction at receiver. However, they are weak at strong side linebacker and still haven’t come up with a solution at DE. They can probably find a linebacker later. Depending on how things play out, it might boil down to Dunlap or Jason Pierre-Paul. Pierre-Paul is dynamic, but only has one year of D1 college experience. Last season’s film should be enough though and it will probably come down to whether he measures out big enough to play 4-3 DE in the pros.
The Pick: Jason Perre-Paul, DE, South Florida

Stay tuned for combine reaction, and hopefully I’ll get back to some long overdue Bengals chatter.